Posted:
#1
Third and final play I'm on for Sunday:
I know how good the Pats are off a loss. I know how much Brady has torched Pittsburgh in his career (24 TD, 3 INT). I know how much worse the Steelers are without Shazier. The Pats will have a hard time winning this game.
Pittsburgh has been waiting for this game since the AFC championship last year. But this time, they are playing at home against an unhealthy Pats defense with 0 pass rush. Additionally, New England will be playing their 3rd straight road game, with a short turnaround off MNF giving them one less day of recovery/prep. Super Bowl champion teams are 27-5 ATS as home underdogs as long as the starting QB is starting in the game. Pittsburgh is being disrespected here.
Also, too much is being made of the loss of Shazier. The Ravens went up and down on them last week, but there will be a few differences in this matchup. Shazier's backup, was injured and did not play last week leaving a 3rd string player in his place. His backup will be playing this Sunday. Additionally, Joe Haden should be back who is their starting cornerback. When he was in for the first half of the season the Steelers had a top 3 defense. Pats should struggle at times on offense in this game, despite Pittsburgh’s lack of defensive showings recently. The NFL is week to week, giving up 38 points to the Ravens means nothing here. I expect the AFC Championship game will have to go through Pittsburgh this year.
- Steelers +3 -110 ($3,000)
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