New York Jets

NY JETS

My SB long shot at 22/1. You can still find 22/1 odds at Crica Sports, whereas most other books like MGM and Ceasars have the Jets at 20/1 odds. 

I predict that they will beat the SF 49ers straight up in week 1. I have already bet this. The line was Jets +5 and has already moved to Jets +3.5 with the holdout news of Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk. Then, for the next four weeks they will beat up on tomato cans to start the year off 5-0. Their odds will drop to between 10/1 and 12/1. 

While they do play in a tough division and conference, one simply cannot ignore the talent on this team. On paper, they *should* go to a SB. Where to begin? They have a hall of fame QB who I believe has not had a drop off in talent or arm strength. Yes, he is older and coming off of a major injury but he plays at a high level and still incredibly cerebral. We have seen this movie before with Brady and Manning winning SB with new teams who have an elite defense. Manning did it with the Broncos and Brady did it with the Bucs. Yes, Rodgers is coming off an achilles injury but that brings me nicely to my next point which is that his offensive line is new and much improved.  The offensive line (Graded 5th by PFF) is a top unit because of the additions of Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. They also went and signed John Simpson from BAL and return Alijah Vera Tucker who is a former first round pick who has battled with injuries. They return Joe Tippman at center entering his second year. The improved O-line means better protection for Rodgers who obviously does not have the ability to move around within the pocket that he once had. Rodgers will be asked to manage the games, not to drop back and pass 30-40+ times per game. The formula is going to be to run the ball, manage the game, and play excellent defense. 

I believe Breece Hall will win the AP offensive player of the year running behind this line and catching passes from AR. They drafted Braelon Allen who is a bruising 235 lb pack from Wisconsin who will punish defenses. They also got Isiah Davis who had a very good mini-camp and the depth at running back should help the Jets this season. At WR, Garrett Wilson elite. He had a 1000 yard season last year with Zach Wilson throwing him the ball. Allan Lazard has had an excellent camp and looks to be the probable #3 option behind Mike Williams, who, when healthy, could be a #1 option on many NFL teams. He is coming off an ACL injury last year with the Chargers but his ability to stretch the field as a big target will create opportunities for Wilson, Lazard, Corley, and Gipson. The one weak spot in the offense is the tight end position.

On defense, this team has pro-bowlers at every level. They got Javon Kinlaw from the 49ers and he has had a very good offseason, getting stronger and adding about 20 lbs of muscle on. He will play a big role next to Quinnen Williams who usually gets all of the double teams from interior lineman. On the edge, they have Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, and Takk McKinley, all former first round picks as they await the Hasan Reddick situation. It remains to be seen whether he shows up or continues to be fined by the team but I like that they Jets aren’t caving into his demands because they already have an elite defensive line. Signing Reddick would just be the icing on the cake. 

They return CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams. Williams made first team all pro last year. Their secondary is graded as the #1 secondary in the league with Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed and they have, IMO the best nickel corner in the league in Michael Carter.

I think that if they can stay healthy, the ceiling for this team is 12-5 given that they have the 4th easiest schedule. I like their team total wins of over 9.5 (-160) and I see value in and like their odds to win the division at +170. Aaron Rodgers for MVP at 20/1 plays nicely into this narrative, as does Breece Hall AP Offensive player of the year at anywhere from 13/1 to 16/1 at most books (McCaffrey Madden curse and injury bug due to 49ers rest disadvantage). I also like Rodgers at +140 to win the comeback player of the year award ahead of Joe Burrow and Anthony Richardson.

Well done + even TE Tyler Conklin is no slouch + hardly a weakness.

They have amazing depth on D. if needed + if Aaron goes down again they have one of the best backups in Tyrod Taylor so there is stability there this year compared to the S. show at QB LY along with Greg the leg at kicker 32-35 LY I believe with still a top 5 booming leg so you are right there are no weaknesses on this team as Draft Kings noted the other day as they ranked the Jets 2nd in overall roster talent behind KC mainly because of 1 player.

I rarely make future bets of any type myself like win O/X div/conf + SB but i am with you here as i have hit all + more multiple times on this incred. value team that seems totally underrated mainly due to Aaron's age + the 4 plays LY along with him not performing to his standards in GRB in 2022 i guess but with great new O. line + depth there will be fine to say the least as with the exception of LY he has been very durable in the NFL with a couple of 1/2 seasons missed in 20 years.

Bottom line without major amounts of injuries esp. on the O. side of the ball there is not a lot of ways the Jets are losing games this year.

The 12-5 you guessed has to include a loss in week 18 while resting everybody as i see 14-2=14-3 after week 18.

See you at the window in Feb.

@Ih8coldweather

 u forget it is the jets.. jets and Super Bowl in the same sentence is actually hilarious..it is the same movie every year and still they haven't even made the playoffs in 15 straight seasons..jets are gonna find a way to jet ...

@dominicano02

 That is why you get them at 22/1 odds. 

Anyone can bet KC at 5/1 odds. It doesn’t take much Cajones to do that but to put 6 dimes on NYJ takes some degree of analysis, some luck/variance, and gamble.

Good write-up, like the Jets to be in the playoffs along with Miami out of the AFC East. Finz fan here, have them at +2000 also to win the Superbowl. One of them will win the division. Interesting that they don't play until December and then again the last game of the season in New York where surely the weather won't do Miami any favors. But if the Jets stay healthy, Rodgers is the game manager he needs to be, they'll be a force to be reckoned with. Good luck to you this season!

@mrusso

Thanks mrusso, lot of respect for you and what you do.

@Ih8coldweather

 Good luck buddy!

@insatiable

With all due respect, no matter the odds, I think any bet on the Jets to win the SB is just a donation to the books! Donate to a charity instead. Now the division win future is something that is realistic and something I might jump on myself. But, probably waiting til after the SF game as I don't see them winning week1 whenever Rodgers hasn't played in so long. It definitely matters and talk about game mangers? Purdy will do just that while leading them to a win.

@Ih8coldweather

 Good luck with your pick on the Super Bowl. However I would like to caution you on this game with San Francisco. Rogers I don't believe has ever had a good game against the 49ers and doubt seriously that after being out of action for over a year, along with no pre-season play that he will have a good game against the 49ers. In my humble opinion the only way the Jets have a shot in this game is to run the ball and run all day long and keep the ball out of Rogers hands as much as possible...at least in the first half anyway. Plus I have serious doubts regarding the Jets O.C.

Good Luck

Hep

@Hephaestus

 I agree with your sentiments. Line opened at 5, moved to 3.5 prior to the BA and Trent Williams signing. Should be a much more competitive game, could definitely see the Jets losing or even getting blown out of SF shows up. Excellent test early on in the season, but I like the Jets at 22/1. Like the team, talent, roster, and storybook ending to another HOF career QB with top 5 defense.

Also agree on Nathaniel Hackett being a suspect OC at best.

GL this coming  season much respect mah man @Ih8coldweather

The odds dropped from 22/1 and 20/1 at most books to 15/1 right now at bet MGM. The Jets finally get some rest after playing 3 games in 11 days, and come out with a predicted 2-1 record. They have the Broncos on deck at home, then they travel overseas to face the Minnesota Vikings, before a prime time game against the Bills. 

It will be interesting to see where the SB odds and their divisional odds go after the Vikings game if they do end up going 4-1, or even 5-1 if they beat Buffalo at home.

Hopefully Morgan Moses doesn’t have a serious injury. 

I loved what I saw from the Jets tonight. Aaron seems more comfortable in the pocket and it looks like Hackett opened up the playbook more rather than the predictable run run pass sequence to open games. Braelon Allen look like a solid change of pace back, a true bruiser who was running over defenders. I think once Rodgers gets into a better sync with Wilson the offense will be even more dangerous, especially if they continue to get Mike Williams involved as well.

yes, I realize they played the Pats at home. But I’m let interested to see what happens when this team steps up in competition 

At this point, after two weeks, what teams have really impressed us?

have the Chiefs been very impressive? Mahomes did not look good last week

the Lions? They still have holes in their defense, despite the additions in the secondary. Ben Johnson passed against TB and got away from the running game that is the Lions staple.

The Eagles? Their offense looks potent, but major question marks plague this defense who can’t rush the passer or cover in the secondary.

lastly, the 49ers with their injuries to CMC, Deebo, Greenlaw and holes in their O-line makes me feel like this year truly can be anyone’s year.

What team (s) do you feel is worth looking at as SB futures odds given what we know this season?