Posted:
#1
133-109-3 ( 28-18 last 2 weeks)
As we all are aware, this is a rematch from just a few weeks ago only this time imo the outcome will be much different. As anyone with any experience with this type of scenario will know is that teams in revenge situations from the regular season are better than 60% ATS. Even without me delving into the trends of how +7 > dogs ( that magical #) fare in these playoff revenge situations.,from my experience and memory alone I can tell you that they fare very very well. However, with that being said, in my book the trend alone doesn't justify the play. You need some solid evidence to back it up The real kicker to solidify my opinion on this game is when I tell myself to just K.I.S.S( keep it simple stupid) lets keep it simple
When I look at the evidence, my model of this 2nd match compared with my model of the 1st match, the historical +7 playoff revenging dog trend could repeat with GB not only covering the spread, but possibly winning the game outright this time around. Very unlikely that the outcome of the 1st game will happen twice...Advantage GB. > coaching adjustments.
The real deal comes from looking into the last matchup ( the game itself) and the 4 -5 game series model comparison of the 2 clubs prior to match #1 ie the overall offensive and defensive pure points per game and pppg win margin vs their opponents CCR etc.
In match #2 model Im looking at the same scenario as I had with with my match #1 model. The difference " TURNOVERS". My match # 1 model showing GB+5 to cover and possibly win su never took place because of them. It wasn't that Arizona was 28 points better than GB. Think about it
As I stated my model from the 1st match not only had GB covering the spread but had them winning the game outright. However, that wasn't to be because of the OL issues GB had in that game and the many turnovers Ari turned into points and without getting into all the detailed #,s etc. Here's one glaring stat for all to look at
Final score 1st match 38-8 Arizona ? Deceptive ? What really happened.
Point #1 14 points scored by Arizona's defense when GB's defense wasn't even on the field. Not a true indication on how efficient GB's defense really was in that game.
Point #2 28 total points scored by Arizona' overall off GB miscues. 2 by the defense 1 by Arizona's offense, not a true indication of how efficient Arizona's offense really was in that game Take all that away...final 10-8 Arizona. I could get into more detail stats etc.....don't think I need to. Its simple, so lets keep it that way. ( K.I.S.S)
Other GB trends to consider:
GB: 13-3 ATS w / revenge vs non-div opp off div game( Ari off div gm)
9-0 vs .666 > opp
9-1 as dogs 2> off a su non-div dog win ( GB was +1 @ wash)
12-2 off a su non-div dog win
GB wins this game straight up....the +7 is a bonus...Mark it down
Green Bay +7 ( -110) BIG PLAY
Green Bay ML ( +280)
As we all are aware, this is a rematch from just a few weeks ago only this time imo the outcome will be much different. As anyone with any experience with this type of scenario will know is that teams in revenge situations from the regular season are better than 60% ATS. Even without me delving into the trends of how +7 > dogs ( that magical #) fare in these playoff revenge situations.,from my experience and memory alone I can tell you that they fare very very well. However, with that being said, in my book the trend alone doesn't justify the play. You need some solid evidence to back it up The real kicker to solidify my opinion on this game is when I tell myself to just K.I.S.S( keep it simple stupid) lets keep it simple
When I look at the evidence, my model of this 2nd match compared with my model of the 1st match, the historical +7 playoff revenging dog trend could repeat with GB not only covering the spread, but possibly winning the game outright this time around. Very unlikely that the outcome of the 1st game will happen twice...Advantage GB. > coaching adjustments.
The real deal comes from looking into the last matchup ( the game itself) and the 4 -5 game series model comparison of the 2 clubs prior to match #1 ie the overall offensive and defensive pure points per game and pppg win margin vs their opponents CCR etc.
In match #2 model Im looking at the same scenario as I had with with my match #1 model. The difference " TURNOVERS". My match # 1 model showing GB+5 to cover and possibly win su never took place because of them. It wasn't that Arizona was 28 points better than GB. Think about it
As I stated my model from the 1st match not only had GB covering the spread but had them winning the game outright. However, that wasn't to be because of the OL issues GB had in that game and the many turnovers Ari turned into points and without getting into all the detailed #,s etc. Here's one glaring stat for all to look at
Final score 1st match 38-8 Arizona ? Deceptive ? What really happened.
Point #1 14 points scored by Arizona's defense when GB's defense wasn't even on the field. Not a true indication on how efficient GB's defense really was in that game.
Point #2 28 total points scored by Arizona' overall off GB miscues. 2 by the defense 1 by Arizona's offense, not a true indication of how efficient Arizona's offense really was in that game Take all that away...final 10-8 Arizona. I could get into more detail stats etc.....don't think I need to. Its simple, so lets keep it that way. ( K.I.S.S)
Other GB trends to consider:
GB: 13-3 ATS w / revenge vs non-div opp off div game( Ari off div gm)
9-0 vs .666 > opp
9-1 as dogs 2> off a su non-div dog win ( GB was +1 @ wash)
12-2 off a su non-div dog win
GB wins this game straight up....the +7 is a bonus...Mark it down
Green Bay +7 ( -110) BIG PLAY
Green Bay ML ( +280)
0
ya think....lol 
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