San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packers
The San Diego Chargers will be a monster play for me this Sunday. Let’s dig.
This game means very little to the Pack who are now 5-0 and perennial Superbowl favorites. They’ve bulldozed through their first 5 opponents but this week they are facing an AFC team under .500 who just lost a home game to Michael Vick - with a bye week on deck. This game means much more to the Bolts who will be all-in to avoid a season-ending 2-4 start (since Broncos are 5-0 in the division).
After scoring 31, 27, and 28 points the first 3 weeks of the season, the Packers offense has looked very sloppy the last few weeks averaging just 20.5 points over the last 2 games as the injuries are really starting to catch up to them. A Nick Foles led team outgained the Packers in Total Yards and Total First Downs last week in Green Bay, that’s unheard of. Let’s not forget Rodgers 2 home picks. Green Bay needs this bye week to get healthy.
Chargers losing at the buzzer on MNF last week will play in their favor here to get some revenge. A solid trend favoring SD – Road teams off 4 straight non-covers are 15-2 ATS last 17 games. (Applies to Chiefs as well). Mike McCoy is 3-0 SU/ATS after MNF and 5-1 SU/ATS with short rest.
B2b Touchdown+ Favorites off two very strong defensive wins (holding opponent to 10 or less) are 16-39 ATS the following game and 3-15 ATS last 18. What this tells us is that team is going in overvalued due to several INTs/fumbles or miscues by their last 2 opponents causing past wins to seem like blowouts. Let’s remember - Rams had more yards, more rush yards, and more first downs then Packers but missed 3 field goals and threw 4 interceptions.
Another – Certain large favorites when Forcing 3+ INTs are 5-23 ATS past 10 years failing to cover by an average of 6.7 points. This again makes sense since the team will be overvalued due to what looks like a blowout win when in reality, INT are sometimes luck.
Rodgers should have an easier time this week not having to face a great dline like the Rams but the defense will take a step back. The Packers D has been phenomenal so far this year, but Rivers will be the best QB they've seen thus far. Take a look at the offenses Green Bay has seen to date:
- Chicago - 27th ranked offense
- Seattle - 15th ranked offense
- Kansas City - 18th ranked offense
- San Francisco - 29th ranked offense
- St Louis - 32nd ranked offense
Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Russ Wilson, Jay Cutler and Nick Foles have been the 5 QBs they’ve faced which include 2 of the worst 4 offenses in the league the past 2 weeks. The Chargers will be missing several key offensive lineman this game however, SD has had the most changes in oline since 2010 so this will not be anything new to Rivers. Packers defense will now have to face a very potent offense in Rivers, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, Woodhead, and Melvin Gordon – an offense ranked 3rd in YPG behind only Patriots and Bengals; after getting high and happy facing pedestrian offenses the last few weeks.
This is a game where the
injuries can finally catch up to GB as the Chargers will surely put up some
points this weekend. This game will be decided late in the fourth but I have a
feeling SD will shock some people this Sunday.
I’m playing 8 units at +10.5
-105, 1 unit at +3.5 +210?, and 1 unit at ML +425.
Also playing Chiefs +4, Dolphins
+2, and Bills +3.5 at 3 units each.
GL and tail at your own risk.
Hot Forum Topics
