People are tired of Tom Terrific in the SB. Hes a sack of monkey crap anyway. If Drew Bledsoe doesnt get rocked Tommy is a permanent clipboard holder....
People are tired of Kaepernick kissing his skinny arm. People dont wanna see SF play in the cold for the SB.
Two weeks to talk about the best O vs the best D ?
ESPN will EAT IT UP.
Talk about Brady & Belicheat and a Harbaugh brother?
No, these games are not fixed. However, this is "the NFL", where things tend to work themselves out
Niners road trips and trouble on offense catch up to them, and the Pats defense catches up to them.
Denver 41
NE 28
Seattle 27
SF 20
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Denver -5 & O56
Seattle -3 & O39
People are tired of Tom Terrific in the SB. Hes a sack of monkey crap anyway. If Drew Bledsoe doesnt get rocked Tommy is a permanent clipboard holder....
People are tired of Kaepernick kissing his skinny arm. People dont wanna see SF play in the cold for the SB.
Two weeks to talk about the best O vs the best D ?
ESPN will EAT IT UP.
Talk about Brady & Belicheat and a Harbaugh brother?
No, these games are not fixed. However, this is "the NFL", where things tend to work themselves out
Niners road trips and trouble on offense catch up to them, and the Pats defense catches up to them.
I like them Broncos but people don't wanna see Seattle play in the cold either lol somebody gotta win...might as well be a respected Championship franchise like San Fran....27 - 13 F GL tho pal...
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I like them Broncos but people don't wanna see Seattle play in the cold either lol somebody gotta win...might as well be a respected Championship franchise like San Fran....27 - 13 F GL tho pal...
It was a tale of two halves last week as the Seahawks jumped on the
Saints early and carried a 16-0 lead into the 4th quarter before their
dominating defense let up a bit and let the Saints back in the game.
With a 23-8 lead and only 2:40 left on the clock the cover was
back-doored into a push as the Saints scored on a 9 yard TD pass with 26
seconds left on 4th and 6 after the Seahawks played soft, trading
yardage for clock on the drive. With the late scare and non-cover in
combination with a subpar passing performance from QB Russell Wilson,
Seattle seems to have lost some of its luster in the public’s eye.
That, coupled with a dominating second half performance by the 49ers in
their convincing 23-10 win and cover in Carolina, has given us some
value on the Seahawks in this game. San Francisco made plays when they
had to and were the better team for sure but they will be facing a
different animal in the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Not only have
the Seahawks been dominating at home (16-1 SU and outscoring opponents
29.4-12.9), but they have dominated this 49er team twice on this field
in the past 13 months, winning last season 42-13 and earlier this year
29-3. Throw in the fact that the 49ers are coming off of three
consecutive road games (the last two in different time zones) and have
played physical games the past three weeks against the Cardinals,
Packers and Panthers and you have a team that could be a bit fatigued.
Add to that the fact that they are playing against the best team in the
league by my metrics in the most difficult venue to play in as a
visiting team and you have an unbelievably difficult task. The 49ers
have been pretty good on the road under Jim Harbaugh but they are only
4-3-1 ATS on the road off of a road game, including their last two.
From a matchup perspective, I have made adjustments based on personnel
for the 49ers using only games that Crabtree has played to calculate
offensive numbers and using only games Aldon Smith has played to
calculate defensive numbers (I didn’t use the Carolina game for Smith as
he was just coming back and only played 12 snaps). Seattle has been
pretty healthy outside of offensive line combinations and Percy Harvin
so no adjustments were made. With Crabtree the 49ers are clearly better
offensively and he has made a positive difference in both the run and
the pass games. Match-up calculations and common sense predict that the
49ers will try to run the ball as they have been good, even on the
road, and have been even better with all of their personnel. I don’t
think that the loss of FB Miller and the questionable status of backup
FB Tukuafu will make much of a difference as the 49ers run game is well
schemed but it certainly won’t be a benefit. The Seahawks are good
defending the run, particularly at home where they allow 96 yards at 3.7
ypr against teams that gain 107 yards at 4.2 ypr on average and present
some unique problems because they are even better on the back end. If
the 49ers can’t run the ball effectively here it will be very difficult
to win. Using all games this season, the Seahawks have the best pass
defense in the NFL and allow just 180 yards at 5.0 yps to teams that
gain 228 yards at 6.2 yps on average. The 49ers pass offense is
improved with Crabtree in the lineup (+.42 adjusted yps difference
versus without him in the lineup) but I expect that they will have a
hard time here with the combination of excellent overall defense and
crowd noise.
Russell Wilson is markedly better at home than he is on the road passing
the ball (+.4 adjusted yps difference home versus away) but he is well
above average using full season numbers as well (averaging 6.9 yps
against opponents that allow 6.1 yps). There is a lot of talk about a
slump for Wilson as he had his lowest passing output of his career last
week but I am not really concerned as his overall body of work is much
more indicative of what he will do moving forward. Also, the weather
was clearly a factor last week with high winds and a game plan that was
predicated on attacking predominantly with the run. An interesting stat
on Wilson is that he has also been much better with the lead this
season as he has a 17-2 TD/Int ratio as compared to when he is tied or
trailing that ratio drops down to 9-7 TD/Int. As important as it is for
the 49ers to not fall behind early, it is equally as important for the
Seahawks. He’ll face a tough 49ers pass defense that has allowed 219
yards at 6.1 yps to teams that gain 233 at 6.4 yps on average with Aldon
Smith in the lineup but I expect him to play well here, especially
since everyone is talking about how much better Colin Kaepernick is
(which is not the case). Wilson unfortunately won’t have WR Percy
Harvin to throw to but the Seahawks have played almost the entire
season without him anyway and I still have them rated as the best team
in the NFL.
My model, adjusted for personnel, has the Seahawks favored by 6.9 points
and they also qualify in a 57-27-2 situation while benefitting from a
negative 9-27-1 situation that plays against the 49ers. Dr. Bob’s
situation from last week is also in play here once again (16-33 against
SF with a 5-11 record in the Championship Round and is 0-3 in division
playoff games and 0-3 against teams playing their fourth consecutive
road game). Weather should not be a factor in this game with no wind
and temperatures in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Everyone seems to like
the 49ers in this game and I particularly like cases where numbers,
situation and spot all line up on the other side of public opinion,
which is what we have here. I will have a 2-Star Best Bet on Seattle
but I think that line is likely to go to -3 (-120) at some point this
weekend so I recommend not playing Seattle now and waiting for the line
to go to -3 (-120) or better. If the line goes to -3 (-120), as I think
it will, then I will grade the play at -3 (-120) and will send an email
alert that the line has moved. If the line doesn't move to -3 (-120)
then I will grade the game based on the line an hour before kickoff. I
could have waited for the line to move to -3 (-120) before sending out
the analysis but I thought it was better to alert everyone that I will
be on Seattle and that I'm waiting for the line to move to -3 (-120) and
that I recommend you to do the same.
0
It was a tale of two halves last week as the Seahawks jumped on the
Saints early and carried a 16-0 lead into the 4th quarter before their
dominating defense let up a bit and let the Saints back in the game.
With a 23-8 lead and only 2:40 left on the clock the cover was
back-doored into a push as the Saints scored on a 9 yard TD pass with 26
seconds left on 4th and 6 after the Seahawks played soft, trading
yardage for clock on the drive. With the late scare and non-cover in
combination with a subpar passing performance from QB Russell Wilson,
Seattle seems to have lost some of its luster in the public’s eye.
That, coupled with a dominating second half performance by the 49ers in
their convincing 23-10 win and cover in Carolina, has given us some
value on the Seahawks in this game. San Francisco made plays when they
had to and were the better team for sure but they will be facing a
different animal in the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Not only have
the Seahawks been dominating at home (16-1 SU and outscoring opponents
29.4-12.9), but they have dominated this 49er team twice on this field
in the past 13 months, winning last season 42-13 and earlier this year
29-3. Throw in the fact that the 49ers are coming off of three
consecutive road games (the last two in different time zones) and have
played physical games the past three weeks against the Cardinals,
Packers and Panthers and you have a team that could be a bit fatigued.
Add to that the fact that they are playing against the best team in the
league by my metrics in the most difficult venue to play in as a
visiting team and you have an unbelievably difficult task. The 49ers
have been pretty good on the road under Jim Harbaugh but they are only
4-3-1 ATS on the road off of a road game, including their last two.
From a matchup perspective, I have made adjustments based on personnel
for the 49ers using only games that Crabtree has played to calculate
offensive numbers and using only games Aldon Smith has played to
calculate defensive numbers (I didn’t use the Carolina game for Smith as
he was just coming back and only played 12 snaps). Seattle has been
pretty healthy outside of offensive line combinations and Percy Harvin
so no adjustments were made. With Crabtree the 49ers are clearly better
offensively and he has made a positive difference in both the run and
the pass games. Match-up calculations and common sense predict that the
49ers will try to run the ball as they have been good, even on the
road, and have been even better with all of their personnel. I don’t
think that the loss of FB Miller and the questionable status of backup
FB Tukuafu will make much of a difference as the 49ers run game is well
schemed but it certainly won’t be a benefit. The Seahawks are good
defending the run, particularly at home where they allow 96 yards at 3.7
ypr against teams that gain 107 yards at 4.2 ypr on average and present
some unique problems because they are even better on the back end. If
the 49ers can’t run the ball effectively here it will be very difficult
to win. Using all games this season, the Seahawks have the best pass
defense in the NFL and allow just 180 yards at 5.0 yps to teams that
gain 228 yards at 6.2 yps on average. The 49ers pass offense is
improved with Crabtree in the lineup (+.42 adjusted yps difference
versus without him in the lineup) but I expect that they will have a
hard time here with the combination of excellent overall defense and
crowd noise.
Russell Wilson is markedly better at home than he is on the road passing
the ball (+.4 adjusted yps difference home versus away) but he is well
above average using full season numbers as well (averaging 6.9 yps
against opponents that allow 6.1 yps). There is a lot of talk about a
slump for Wilson as he had his lowest passing output of his career last
week but I am not really concerned as his overall body of work is much
more indicative of what he will do moving forward. Also, the weather
was clearly a factor last week with high winds and a game plan that was
predicated on attacking predominantly with the run. An interesting stat
on Wilson is that he has also been much better with the lead this
season as he has a 17-2 TD/Int ratio as compared to when he is tied or
trailing that ratio drops down to 9-7 TD/Int. As important as it is for
the 49ers to not fall behind early, it is equally as important for the
Seahawks. He’ll face a tough 49ers pass defense that has allowed 219
yards at 6.1 yps to teams that gain 233 at 6.4 yps on average with Aldon
Smith in the lineup but I expect him to play well here, especially
since everyone is talking about how much better Colin Kaepernick is
(which is not the case). Wilson unfortunately won’t have WR Percy
Harvin to throw to but the Seahawks have played almost the entire
season without him anyway and I still have them rated as the best team
in the NFL.
My model, adjusted for personnel, has the Seahawks favored by 6.9 points
and they also qualify in a 57-27-2 situation while benefitting from a
negative 9-27-1 situation that plays against the 49ers. Dr. Bob’s
situation from last week is also in play here once again (16-33 against
SF with a 5-11 record in the Championship Round and is 0-3 in division
playoff games and 0-3 against teams playing their fourth consecutive
road game). Weather should not be a factor in this game with no wind
and temperatures in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Everyone seems to like
the 49ers in this game and I particularly like cases where numbers,
situation and spot all line up on the other side of public opinion,
which is what we have here. I will have a 2-Star Best Bet on Seattle
but I think that line is likely to go to -3 (-120) at some point this
weekend so I recommend not playing Seattle now and waiting for the line
to go to -3 (-120) or better. If the line goes to -3 (-120), as I think
it will, then I will grade the play at -3 (-120) and will send an email
alert that the line has moved. If the line doesn't move to -3 (-120)
then I will grade the game based on the line an hour before kickoff. I
could have waited for the line to move to -3 (-120) before sending out
the analysis but I thought it was better to alert everyone that I will
be on Seattle and that I'm waiting for the line to move to -3 (-120) and
that I recommend you to do the same.
Looking at one final play for the weekend in a ML parlay with Emerald City and Wiski CBB tonight as well, which I will def be on (.933 for every 1). Would have def been on Pitt today as of a week ago when it opened at +5, but after losing Johnson, it has me thinking it over more. Cuse 1-7 ATS last 8 vs Pitt, while Pitt is also 5-1-1 ATS last 7 on the road and 5-1 str8 up at the Dome overall last 6. BOL this weekend regardless Train and looks like we both like Emerald City a lot!!
0
Looking at one final play for the weekend in a ML parlay with Emerald City and Wiski CBB tonight as well, which I will def be on (.933 for every 1). Would have def been on Pitt today as of a week ago when it opened at +5, but after losing Johnson, it has me thinking it over more. Cuse 1-7 ATS last 8 vs Pitt, while Pitt is also 5-1-1 ATS last 7 on the road and 5-1 str8 up at the Dome overall last 6. BOL this weekend regardless Train and looks like we both like Emerald City a lot!!
I like your bets Train, and on them as well, except that damn super small total on that Seahawk/49ers game! I sure want to take the over because it's hard to believe these two teams won't at least score a few TD's each in a win or go home game! But that is when I lose! So as scary as it is, I am thinking about jumping on the under at some point!
0
I like your bets Train, and on them as well, except that damn super small total on that Seahawk/49ers game! I sure want to take the over because it's hard to believe these two teams won't at least score a few TD's each in a win or go home game! But that is when I lose! So as scary as it is, I am thinking about jumping on the under at some point!
Good Luck Train - like all 4 plays - believe the SF/Seattle game will be the better of the two - think Denver is going to hand it to NE - weather at Denver is supposed to be b-e-a-t utiful. Good Luck again!!!
0
Good Luck Train - like all 4 plays - believe the SF/Seattle game will be the better of the two - think Denver is going to hand it to NE - weather at Denver is supposed to be b-e-a-t utiful. Good Luck again!!!
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