*** NFL Championship Weekend ***

Quote Originally Posted by CantPickAWinner:

  Who is Indie? Always looking to follow more legit cappers like LC

Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

will be interesting what the SB line is gonna be..

Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

will be interesting what the SB line is gonna be..

Quote Originally Posted by Gabbo:

I would guess Rams -2.5, then to -3 later to keep betting evenish.

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

New England Patriots @ Kansas City ChiefsLet me put this ‘Patriots are a bad road team’ notion to bed because it keeps coming up and it couldn’t be further from the truth. The Pats were 8-0 at home this year, yet just 3-5 on the road. But that 3-5 road record this season was extremely predictable. Several of those road losses were early in the season but all 5 of them took place during a season that the Pats had to endure more changes than any season they’ve had in a while. This team lost their defensive coordinator of 6 years to the Lions prior to the start of the season. They integrated Edelman back into the offense off his torn ACL, while also bringing in a new #1 receiver in Josh Gordon, only to see him leave the team later in the year. Gronkowski was almost traded before the season and then threatened to retire, and has been a no-show in the passing game all season. They brought in Sony Michel to lead the run game. Lots of changes the Pats offense had to go through this year with Edelman, Gordon, and changing the offense to stray away from Gronk. All while promoting a new defensive coordinator to call the plays on defense. This team has had a lot of moving parts for a majority of this season.I faded the Pats in Jacksonville, in Detroit, and in Tennessee this season as again those were predictable struggle games for them. This one is not. This Patriots team has gone through more changes and distractions this year than they’ve had to in a long time, and is one of the reasons I faded them on the road throughout the season. As I said earlier though – this will be an entirely re-focused team late in the year and heading into the playoffs.‘The Pats are a different team on the road’ – this statement is nonsense. What was the Patriots road record prior to this season? 14-1 on the road over the past 2 years prior to this season. ‘The Pats have been awful on the road in the postseason over the years’ – again nonsense. The sample size on this is 2 games over the past decade. Two games, the last of which was against the #1 ranked defense in the league that year, in which it came down to a 2 point conversion to win the game.I like the Patriots more this game given they are on the road than I would if they were at home. This will be the first time in a long-time in the playoffs that Brady and Belichick are the hunter instead of the hunted. You can already tell what the mantra is in their locker room after Brady came out and said they hear everyone saying they suck and are finished and can’t win games. They are true underdogs this time around in these playoffs, and Brady is 15-6 ATS as an underdog over the past decade, covering those games by an average of 8.43 points. Even better, 3 of those 6 ATS losses were by exactly 1 point, meaning he’s a few plays away from being 18-3 ATS as an underdog over the past decade. And these were mostly games as an underdog facing elite defenses.The Chiefs have the worst ranked rush defense in the league, and are the most penalized team in the NFL. While this is the healthiest the Patriots have been in the postseason in years. Good luck. I love this pick, and I’m upgrading them to 5x despite the futures in play.Pats +3 -105 (5x) Rams +3.5 -105 (3x) Pats +9.5 / Rams +10.5 -120 (1.5x) Pending:Patriots AFC +300 (2.5x)Rams NFC +260 (3x)NFL YTD: 115-63 ATS +96.45 Units