I wonder how double digit dogs preform in the playoffs ATS..
Interesting match-up in SEA/CAR. Two mobile qbs, two teams that focus on defense, lack of receiving depth on both squads. As much as I like Seattle to win SU, it is tempting to take the points in what looks to be a low scoring affair. LCs best bet may be Sea under 25 pts.
Saying the Packers peaked implies they are on the downturn. What gives you that impression? They've looked solid to me.
0
I wonder how double digit dogs preform in the playoffs ATS..
Interesting match-up in SEA/CAR. Two mobile qbs, two teams that focus on defense, lack of receiving depth on both squads. As much as I like Seattle to win SU, it is tempting to take the points in what looks to be a low scoring affair. LCs best bet may be Sea under 25 pts.
Saying the Packers peaked implies they are on the downturn. What gives you that impression? They've looked solid to me.
Panthers defense is still the most underrated unit in the entire NFL. They didn’t play well early in the season because the offense wasn’t doing anything but now they are in rhythym. And as much as I hate Jerry Jones, very good chance we see him in the NFC Championship. Every1 saying the Cowboys didn’t deserve to win last week (which they didn’t), but they’ll come out and make a statement on the road that they belong in the playoffs. The Packers peaked way too early in the season, I'm not expecting to see the same juggernaut we've seen all season. As for the Ravens, Joe Flacco had the luxury of facing an aged Steelers secondary on Saturday and was able to torch them with ease. The Patriots have a secondary that’s better than they’ve had in over a decade. The Smith twins won’t run freely on Revis and Browner like they did on William G4y and Ike Taylor. Baltimore’s defense was able to cheat against the Pass as the Steelers had 0 run threat with Laveon Bell out. Their defense will have to respect New England’s but their balanced offense should be able to move up and down the field with ease. This game shouldn't be as close as people think.
Patriots -6.5 (6x)
Patriots -10.5 +171 (1x)
Patriots Over 27 (2x)
Panthers +11 (4x)
Panthers +450 (1x)
Seahawks Under 25 (4x)
Cowboys +6 (4x)
Cowboys Over 23.5 (2x)
Cowboys +220 (1x)
Colts +7 (5x)
Colts +255 (1x)
Pats PK / Indy +14 (3x)
The only time the Patriots make it over 20 points in post season games is when they are playing Tomato Cans
Brady has a 56 QB rating vs the Ravens with 3 TDS and 7 INTS your Patriot over 27 points bet will never happen .
0
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
Panthers defense is still the most underrated unit in the entire NFL. They didn’t play well early in the season because the offense wasn’t doing anything but now they are in rhythym. And as much as I hate Jerry Jones, very good chance we see him in the NFC Championship. Every1 saying the Cowboys didn’t deserve to win last week (which they didn’t), but they’ll come out and make a statement on the road that they belong in the playoffs. The Packers peaked way too early in the season, I'm not expecting to see the same juggernaut we've seen all season. As for the Ravens, Joe Flacco had the luxury of facing an aged Steelers secondary on Saturday and was able to torch them with ease. The Patriots have a secondary that’s better than they’ve had in over a decade. The Smith twins won’t run freely on Revis and Browner like they did on William G4y and Ike Taylor. Baltimore’s defense was able to cheat against the Pass as the Steelers had 0 run threat with Laveon Bell out. Their defense will have to respect New England’s but their balanced offense should be able to move up and down the field with ease. This game shouldn't be as close as people think.
Patriots -6.5 (6x)
Patriots -10.5 +171 (1x)
Patriots Over 27 (2x)
Panthers +11 (4x)
Panthers +450 (1x)
Seahawks Under 25 (4x)
Cowboys +6 (4x)
Cowboys Over 23.5 (2x)
Cowboys +220 (1x)
Colts +7 (5x)
Colts +255 (1x)
Pats PK / Indy +14 (3x)
The only time the Patriots make it over 20 points in post season games is when they are playing Tomato Cans
Brady has a 56 QB rating vs the Ravens with 3 TDS and 7 INTS your Patriot over 27 points bet will never happen .
LC, I think you have great insight, at times. But... You've been taken behind the woodshed by the Super Bowl champs multiple times this year. Speaking of woodshed - Cinci gave you another beating last week...
But I digress...
Seattle is the most complete team in the playoffs. They play sound football (unlike the Panthers). The don't make many mistakes (unlike the Panthers)... They're the best coached football team. They're well rested (and mostly healthy). They're at home. They won't be underestimated the Panthers - because they are professionals.
You're delusional if you truly believe Carolina will beat them.
Good luck.
I agree. LC finds some good angles at times. But has no idea how to analyze and factor in talent. In fact he completely ignores it. That might work in mid season. But in the playoffs where everyone is trying. Talent is the king of picking winners.
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Quote Originally Posted by InVegas:
LC, I think you have great insight, at times. But... You've been taken behind the woodshed by the Super Bowl champs multiple times this year. Speaking of woodshed - Cinci gave you another beating last week...
But I digress...
Seattle is the most complete team in the playoffs. They play sound football (unlike the Panthers). The don't make many mistakes (unlike the Panthers)... They're the best coached football team. They're well rested (and mostly healthy). They're at home. They won't be underestimated the Panthers - because they are professionals.
You're delusional if you truly believe Carolina will beat them.
Good luck.
I agree. LC finds some good angles at times. But has no idea how to analyze and factor in talent. In fact he completely ignores it. That might work in mid season. But in the playoffs where everyone is trying. Talent is the king of picking winners.
Following this logic, the Ravens are in a prime spot. They barely got into the playoffs and are now playing with house money. Not to mention, they have Super Bowl pedigree. The Seattle defense may not be as good as last year but they are still very, very good. I agree that they expended a lot of energy in trying to win the division, but now they get an extra week off, which is huge. Also, this is a team that has been in playoff mode for the last 5-6 weeks, they are super bowl champs and know what it takes to get there. They will not succumb to the pressure because they've been thriving under all this pressure for weeks. They have the look of a team that not only wants to repeat but is still playing with a chip on its shoulder (which is noteworthy). Carolina has a dumb coach and a low IQ QB, never a good combination.
I hear ya and not gonna argue with you. There are plenty of reasons to back Seattle here, I know they are a great team. I've seen them blowout many opponents before.
BOL this weekend
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Following this logic, the Ravens are in a prime spot. They barely got into the playoffs and are now playing with house money. Not to mention, they have Super Bowl pedigree. The Seattle defense may not be as good as last year but they are still very, very good. I agree that they expended a lot of energy in trying to win the division, but now they get an extra week off, which is huge. Also, this is a team that has been in playoff mode for the last 5-6 weeks, they are super bowl champs and know what it takes to get there. They will not succumb to the pressure because they've been thriving under all this pressure for weeks. They have the look of a team that not only wants to repeat but is still playing with a chip on its shoulder (which is noteworthy). Carolina has a dumb coach and a low IQ QB, never a good combination.
I hear ya and not gonna argue with you. There are plenty of reasons to back Seattle here, I know they are a great team. I've seen them blowout many opponents before.
I wonder how double digit dogs preform in the playoffs ATS..
Interesting match-up in SEA/CAR. Two mobile qbs, two teams that focus on defense, lack of receiving depth on both squads. As much as I like Seattle to win SU, it is tempting to take the points in what looks to be a low scoring affair. LCs best bet may be Sea under 25 pts.
Saying the Packers peaked implies they are on the downturn. What gives you that impression? They've looked solid to me.
Non-Divisional Double Digit Favorites in playoffs: 3-4 ATS last 7. 5-6 ATS last 11. 3-5 ATS with a total under 50.
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Quote Originally Posted by drozanski:
I wonder how double digit dogs preform in the playoffs ATS..
Interesting match-up in SEA/CAR. Two mobile qbs, two teams that focus on defense, lack of receiving depth on both squads. As much as I like Seattle to win SU, it is tempting to take the points in what looks to be a low scoring affair. LCs best bet may be Sea under 25 pts.
Saying the Packers peaked implies they are on the downturn. What gives you that impression? They've looked solid to me.
Non-Divisional Double Digit Favorites in playoffs: 3-4 ATS last 7. 5-6 ATS last 11. 3-5 ATS with a total under 50.
LC...I'm just really scared of the Ravens....they seem to play the Pats very well...for some reason Flacco plays his best games....
One of the reasons I like Pats as my favorite play. Ravens have done this to the Pats already several times. New England has the best team they've had in years and i'm sure they've been preparing for Baltimore for the last 2 weeks now as they are the biggest threat to them (based on past results).
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Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:
LC...I'm just really scared of the Ravens....they seem to play the Pats very well...for some reason Flacco plays his best games....
One of the reasons I like Pats as my favorite play. Ravens have done this to the Pats already several times. New England has the best team they've had in years and i'm sure they've been preparing for Baltimore for the last 2 weeks now as they are the biggest threat to them (based on past results).
but yea....carolina offense is pretty weak..their front 7 is pretty strong...and they definately should've lost to arizona. ryan lindley is THE worst qb in history...jamarcus russell would've won that game with his eyes closed ... but seattle is on fire lately. their defense has started slow earlier in the season due to injuries but everyone is back and defense is playing strong. however i can see their offense struggling against carolina...i think seattle wins this in a tight game...TEASE BOTHWAYS
0
lets go cowboys!
but yea....carolina offense is pretty weak..their front 7 is pretty strong...and they definately should've lost to arizona. ryan lindley is THE worst qb in history...jamarcus russell would've won that game with his eyes closed ... but seattle is on fire lately. their defense has started slow earlier in the season due to injuries but everyone is back and defense is playing strong. however i can see their offense struggling against carolina...i think seattle wins this in a tight game...TEASE BOTHWAYS
I haven't bet this game yet but I'm throwing out this trend as food for thought - an embarkation point for further discussion. I used the following trend to cash a ticket on the Ravens the year they won the Superbowl. Teams that are on an 8 game winning streak and are now playing a divisional home game off of a BYE are ATS 3-17. You're probably saying "hey wait a sec Seattle has only won 6 games" - yeah, you're right but if you run the numbers with a six game streak, as Seattle is currently enjoying, you get some pretty good numbers. Here's the SDQL for this situation:
week=19 and week=p:week+2 and streak>=6 and F
SUP 4-4
ATS 1-7
I think this is a good system because you're getting value, the odds makers have probably hung a couple of extra points on Seattle, and the last thing a streaking team needs is a break from their routine, a momentum buster so to say ... Anyways that SUP 4-4 looks tempting even thought it's a small sample size. Interesting discussion here - good luck going forward.
I love this system play because it is counterintuitive and the numbers clearly spell out that something is going on here despite the small sample size (ATS 3-17) how else could you account for streaking playoff teams going down in flames at such a high rate.
0
I haven't bet this game yet but I'm throwing out this trend as food for thought - an embarkation point for further discussion. I used the following trend to cash a ticket on the Ravens the year they won the Superbowl. Teams that are on an 8 game winning streak and are now playing a divisional home game off of a BYE are ATS 3-17. You're probably saying "hey wait a sec Seattle has only won 6 games" - yeah, you're right but if you run the numbers with a six game streak, as Seattle is currently enjoying, you get some pretty good numbers. Here's the SDQL for this situation:
week=19 and week=p:week+2 and streak>=6 and F
SUP 4-4
ATS 1-7
I think this is a good system because you're getting value, the odds makers have probably hung a couple of extra points on Seattle, and the last thing a streaking team needs is a break from their routine, a momentum buster so to say ... Anyways that SUP 4-4 looks tempting even thought it's a small sample size. Interesting discussion here - good luck going forward.
I love this system play because it is counterintuitive and the numbers clearly spell out that something is going on here despite the small sample size (ATS 3-17) how else could you account for streaking playoff teams going down in flames at such a high rate.
I haven't bet this game yet but I'm throwing out this trend as food for thought - an embarkation point for further discussion. I used the following trend to cash a ticket on the Ravens the year they won the Superbowl. Teams that are on an 8 game winning streak and are now playing a divisional home game off of a BYE are ATS 3-17. You're probably saying "hey wait a sec Seattle has only won 6 games" - yeah, you're right but if you run the numbers with a six game streak, as Seattle is currently enjoying, you get some pretty good numbers. Here's the SDQL for this situation:
week=19 and week=p:week+2 and streak>=6 and F
SUP 4-4
ATS 1-7
I think this is a good system because you're getting value, the odds makers have probably hung a couple of extra points on Seattle, and the last thing a streaking team needs is a break from their routine, a momentum buster so to say ... Anyways that SUP 4-4 looks tempting even thought it's a small sample size. Interesting discussion here - good luck going forward.
I love this system play because it is counterintuitive and the numbers clearly spell out that something is going on here despite the small sample size (ATS 3-17) how else could you account for streaking playoff teams going down in flames at such a high rate.
Don't think that 3-17 ATS is correct but yes teams on 6 game win streak heading in are 1-7 ATS you are correct there
0
Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:
I haven't bet this game yet but I'm throwing out this trend as food for thought - an embarkation point for further discussion. I used the following trend to cash a ticket on the Ravens the year they won the Superbowl. Teams that are on an 8 game winning streak and are now playing a divisional home game off of a BYE are ATS 3-17. You're probably saying "hey wait a sec Seattle has only won 6 games" - yeah, you're right but if you run the numbers with a six game streak, as Seattle is currently enjoying, you get some pretty good numbers. Here's the SDQL for this situation:
week=19 and week=p:week+2 and streak>=6 and F
SUP 4-4
ATS 1-7
I think this is a good system because you're getting value, the odds makers have probably hung a couple of extra points on Seattle, and the last thing a streaking team needs is a break from their routine, a momentum buster so to say ... Anyways that SUP 4-4 looks tempting even thought it's a small sample size. Interesting discussion here - good luck going forward.
I love this system play because it is counterintuitive and the numbers clearly spell out that something is going on here despite the small sample size (ATS 3-17) how else could you account for streaking playoff teams going down in flames at such a high rate.
Don't think that 3-17 ATS is correct but yes teams on 6 game win streak heading in are 1-7 ATS you are correct there
You might be right with regards to ATS 3-17 as I copied the numbers from some other source and the database I use goes only so far back but whether you are looking at 6 or 8 game win streaks both come in at SUP 4-4, ATS 1-7. By the way, I agree with your PATS take but will probably play it safe with a teaser bet. Good luck going forward!
0
You might be right with regards to ATS 3-17 as I copied the numbers from some other source and the database I use goes only so far back but whether you are looking at 6 or 8 game win streaks both come in at SUP 4-4, ATS 1-7. By the way, I agree with your PATS take but will probably play it safe with a teaser bet. Good luck going forward!
I wonder how double digit dogs preform in the playoffs ATS..
Interesting match-up in SEA/CAR. Two mobile qbs, two teams that focus on defense, lack of receiving depth on both squads. As much as I like Seattle to win SU, it is tempting to take the points in what looks to be a low scoring affair. LCs best bet may be Sea under 25 pts.
Saying the Packers peaked implies they are on the downturn. What gives you that impression? They've looked solid to me.
These are my own findings, so take them for what they are worth.
From 2007 (season) on, double digit dogs are 2-8 SU and 5-5 ATS. That's as far as covers historical games go back. I used only their closing lines of 10 or more. There were a bunch of 9.5's too, so these numbers could change depending on where you get your info from.
I used Gold Sheet to back further, and did not find another DD spread from 2002-2006 and quit looking at that point.
Not really telling numbers, and obviously small sample size to boot.
Incidentally, the two SU winners were Zona (08-09) +10 @ Carolina who won 33-13 and Chargers (07-08) +10.5 @ Indy who won 28-24. Both of those also occurred in the divisional round.
If you just look at the divisional round, DD dogs are 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.
0
Quote Originally Posted by drozanski:
I wonder how double digit dogs preform in the playoffs ATS..
Interesting match-up in SEA/CAR. Two mobile qbs, two teams that focus on defense, lack of receiving depth on both squads. As much as I like Seattle to win SU, it is tempting to take the points in what looks to be a low scoring affair. LCs best bet may be Sea under 25 pts.
Saying the Packers peaked implies they are on the downturn. What gives you that impression? They've looked solid to me.
These are my own findings, so take them for what they are worth.
From 2007 (season) on, double digit dogs are 2-8 SU and 5-5 ATS. That's as far as covers historical games go back. I used only their closing lines of 10 or more. There were a bunch of 9.5's too, so these numbers could change depending on where you get your info from.
I used Gold Sheet to back further, and did not find another DD spread from 2002-2006 and quit looking at that point.
Not really telling numbers, and obviously small sample size to boot.
Incidentally, the two SU winners were Zona (08-09) +10 @ Carolina who won 33-13 and Chargers (07-08) +10.5 @ Indy who won 28-24. Both of those also occurred in the divisional round.
If you just look at the divisional round, DD dogs are 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.
Do you have a view on the game with reasons? If so then post it!!
To focus on the capper is a waste of your energy and my time in reading it. This site is for making money not complaining about individuals. You're like a woman!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Fadethefakers:
people who blindly follow him will get hurt...
What is the point of this post?
Do you have a view on the game with reasons? If so then post it!!
To focus on the capper is a waste of your energy and my time in reading it. This site is for making money not complaining about individuals. You're like a woman!
Do you have a view on the game with reasons? If so then post it!!
To focus on the capper is a waste of your energy and my time in reading it. This site is for making money not complaining about individuals. You're like a woman!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:
What is the point of this post?
Do you have a view on the game with reasons? If so then post it!!
To focus on the capper is a waste of your energy and my time in reading it. This site is for making money not complaining about individuals. You're like a woman!
Did you see how shaky Cam looked vs the cardinals? If the Cards had Stanton they would have won. I doubt they'll be able to run on the Seahawks like they did against the Cards. I do like their defense but man it's scary going against Seattle after watching them play a few times
Cam didn't look good against the Cardinals at all, but I watch every Carolina game and for whatever reason Cam has a bad game then the next game he can come back and have a huge day. It is a bad trend of his. So me personally take him looking bad in the Arizona game as a good sign he will perform better this weekend. Call me crazy, it might sound dumb but if the Panthers lose this weekend I do not believe it will be because of Cam. just my opinion
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Quote Originally Posted by chippalata:
Did you see how shaky Cam looked vs the cardinals? If the Cards had Stanton they would have won. I doubt they'll be able to run on the Seahawks like they did against the Cards. I do like their defense but man it's scary going against Seattle after watching them play a few times
Cam didn't look good against the Cardinals at all, but I watch every Carolina game and for whatever reason Cam has a bad game then the next game he can come back and have a huge day. It is a bad trend of his. So me personally take him looking bad in the Arizona game as a good sign he will perform better this weekend. Call me crazy, it might sound dumb but if the Panthers lose this weekend I do not believe it will be because of Cam. just my opinion
this is the biggest discrepancy in talent between the Pats and Ravens
no reed, polard, lewis, smith on the defensive side for baltimore anymore
patriots arent playing with sergio brown, edelmen, quice as their starting cb's..yes people do remember edelmen had to play in the secondary for one of their matchups?
the only matchup that should be of concern for the patriots is suggs vs soldier and that dline vs oline but they faired very well vs the lions, broncos and bills (in the 1 game that mattered) who all have great pass rushes
so great....ravens backers have history on their side...what advantages are there for baltimore on the field?
0
this is the biggest discrepancy in talent between the Pats and Ravens
no reed, polard, lewis, smith on the defensive side for baltimore anymore
patriots arent playing with sergio brown, edelmen, quice as their starting cb's..yes people do remember edelmen had to play in the secondary for one of their matchups?
the only matchup that should be of concern for the patriots is suggs vs soldier and that dline vs oline but they faired very well vs the lions, broncos and bills (in the 1 game that mattered) who all have great pass rushes
so great....ravens backers have history on their side...what advantages are there for baltimore on the field?
A lot of value in the Cowboys getting 6. Just depends on Romo & the playcalling. If they feed Murray like they should, setting up the deep play action to Williams & Dez, they can win the game. I just don't trust Romo enough. I think the Pats & the Packers in a 6 point teaser is pretty safe. I also think Cam Newton will be exposed in Seattle.
0
Think you're dead on on that Pats game.
A lot of value in the Cowboys getting 6. Just depends on Romo & the playcalling. If they feed Murray like they should, setting up the deep play action to Williams & Dez, they can win the game. I just don't trust Romo enough. I think the Pats & the Packers in a 6 point teaser is pretty safe. I also think Cam Newton will be exposed in Seattle.
Panthers defense is still the most underrated unit in the entire NFL. They didn’t play well early in the season because the offense wasn’t doing anything but now they are in rhythym. And as much as I hate Jerry Jones, very good chance we see him in the NFC Championship. Every1 saying the Cowboys didn’t deserve to win last week (which they didn’t), but they’ll come out and make a statement on the road that they belong in the playoffs. The Packers peaked way too early in the season, I'm not expecting to see the same juggernaut we've seen all season. As for the Ravens, Joe Flacco had the luxury of facing an aged Steelers secondary on Saturday and was able to torch them with ease. The Patriots have a secondary that’s better than they’ve had in over a decade. The Smith twins won’t run freely on Revis and Browner like they did on William G4y and Ike Taylor. Baltimore’s defense was able to cheat against the Pass as the Steelers had 0 run threat with Laveon Bell out. Their defense will have to respect New England’s but their balanced offense should be able to move up and down the field with ease. This game shouldn't be as close as people think.
Patriots -6.5 (6x)
Patriots -10.5 +171 (1x)
Patriots Over 27 (2x)
Panthers +11 (4x)
Panthers +450 (1x)
Seahawks Under 25 (4x)
Cowboys +6 (4x)
Cowboys Over 23.5 (2x)
Cowboys +220 (1x)
Colts +7 (5x)
Colts +255 (1x)
Pats PK / Indy +14 (3x)
d
The packers peaked way too early in the season? Really? They started 1-2 and were almost 0-3 if it weren't for their 2nd half comeback against the jets. What are you talking about?
The packers have actually progressed in a steady upward trend every week since week 1....Their defense had improved from 31st to the middle of the pack (top 10 second half of year). And their offence has done the same.
0
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
Panthers defense is still the most underrated unit in the entire NFL. They didn’t play well early in the season because the offense wasn’t doing anything but now they are in rhythym. And as much as I hate Jerry Jones, very good chance we see him in the NFC Championship. Every1 saying the Cowboys didn’t deserve to win last week (which they didn’t), but they’ll come out and make a statement on the road that they belong in the playoffs. The Packers peaked way too early in the season, I'm not expecting to see the same juggernaut we've seen all season. As for the Ravens, Joe Flacco had the luxury of facing an aged Steelers secondary on Saturday and was able to torch them with ease. The Patriots have a secondary that’s better than they’ve had in over a decade. The Smith twins won’t run freely on Revis and Browner like they did on William G4y and Ike Taylor. Baltimore’s defense was able to cheat against the Pass as the Steelers had 0 run threat with Laveon Bell out. Their defense will have to respect New England’s but their balanced offense should be able to move up and down the field with ease. This game shouldn't be as close as people think.
Patriots -6.5 (6x)
Patriots -10.5 +171 (1x)
Patriots Over 27 (2x)
Panthers +11 (4x)
Panthers +450 (1x)
Seahawks Under 25 (4x)
Cowboys +6 (4x)
Cowboys Over 23.5 (2x)
Cowboys +220 (1x)
Colts +7 (5x)
Colts +255 (1x)
Pats PK / Indy +14 (3x)
d
The packers peaked way too early in the season? Really? They started 1-2 and were almost 0-3 if it weren't for their 2nd half comeback against the jets. What are you talking about?
The packers have actually progressed in a steady upward trend every week since week 1....Their defense had improved from 31st to the middle of the pack (top 10 second half of year). And their offence has done the same.
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