NFL Divisional Round Initial Leans and Thoughts...

Going to do what I did last week with some mid-week pregame thoughts on the games this weekend.  These are not necessarily my bets, although they likely will be close.  I will post final bets in a new thread on Sat and Sun.  With Covid and some significant injuries yet to be determined....  I suggest waiting unless you know something to bet.

One other thing....  Take these and my final picks for what they are worth.  Some random dude on the internet giving free advice.  You push the button on every bet you make - not me.  Look inward if this doesn't make sense to you.

NFL Season:  +27.49 units
NFL Playoffs:  4-2  +7.45 units

Bengals / Titans:  I think we have settled on the cheap 3.5 or expensive 3 for the rest of the week. Would be surprised to see 4 again.

I'm having trouble finding anyone who is strongly on the Bengals in this one - but lots of love here and in public for the Titans.  Not that that means much to me, I just find it interesting that people seem to be forgetting that the Titans are a pretty below average playoff team.  Sometimes I feel like people want so badly to build a narrative to support a side they want to bet that they stretch their own truth to do it.  Here are some numbers that stick out to me:

Weighted DVOA:  TN 13  CN 14
TN weighted offense 20
CN weighted defense 24
CN covered 75% on the road this season

The key in this one is going to be the TN offense vs the Bengals defense that will be without Ogunjobe. I keep reading about Henry being back - and while he might be one of the best RBs in the NFL - it is just the least impactful position on the field for replacement value.  The Titans offense lays eggs all the time....  in their last 10 game, they have averaged a pedestrian 22 points a game while gaining just an average of 314 yards per game and that includes the Texans twice and the Jags once.

I just see this as a very even matchup, and I will be on the side with the bigger potential upside, better QB, plus the points.  I see myself on the Bengals +3.5 for around 2 units (TBD).  21-20 either way

49ers / Packers:  (Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB but that has no influence on this pick) Line at 5.5ish now awaiting key defensive injury news for SF and final weather

I like SF here.  I love SF if Bosa and Warner are playing.  The key to this game is the Niners ability to run the ball, and the Packers are 28th adjusted against the run, against SF rushing attack at 4th.  That is too good to pass up for me.  Everyone likes to ignore that the Packers defense is very weak in favor of the Rodgers narrative.  Look - I get it - betting against Rodgers is not fun and he is undeniably great.  But SF should be able to move the ball - and in a low risk way that keeps the ball out of trouble (Jimmy G's hands).  Shanahan is no dummy.  I would be surprised to see the Niners with more than 20 throws (unless they fall way behind early).

I am waiting to see if Bosa will play - but I think he will.  Big bet on the Niners for me again - both ML and spread.  Somewhere around 4 units or so.  SF 27-21

Rams / Bucs:  I think this remains at a cheap 3 or expensive 2.5 until gametime

Some key injuries to watch here on the offensive line for the Bucs.  Will Wirfs and Jensen play - and how effective will they be?  I expect them to play, but you would have to think there will be a loss of effectiveness from the two all pros.  If the Bucs are going to make a run - it will need to be with offense - and they quietly lead the league in offense adjusted.  But the Rams D is a different beast.  The key here is the Rams have safety injury issues - but in order to test safeties downfield you have to have time in the pocket - which I just dont think Brady will have.  I fully expect the Bucs to come out with lots of short routes to get the ball out of Bradys hands quickly to avoid the rush of the Rams - which doesnt exploit the biggest weakness of the Rams defense.

The bucs can be run on - and the Rams will do it.  Hopefully - until the Bucs can stop it - which I dont see happening.

Rams +3 and ML for me in the range of 3 units or so depending on news this week.  Rams 28-21

Bills / Chiefs:  Line will likely bounce between Chiefs -2.5 and -1 the rest of the way.  Doesnt take much money to move a line under 3.

The Bills are excellent statistically on both sides of the ball, and it feels like this team is peaking at just the right time.  The achilles of the Chiefs is their defense - which is vulnerable to especially mobile qbs.  I prefer not to see a shootout like last seasons playoff loss at Arrowhead - I feel like the Bills can dominate possession in this one.  Very similar result to earlier this season when the Bills went to arrowhead and won 38-20.

Bills spread and ML in the range of 3 units or so.  Bills 31-20

Love to discuss.

GL all

I guess that makes 4 road teams and 4 doggies....

Talk already out of Titans camp that Henry could be on a snap count.  As yesterday was his first practice, and the way Foreman performed in his absence, we shouldn't be surprised if Henry gets 12-15 touches vs 25 plus.  

Titans love is coming from the fact that they did not play at full offensive strength the entire season.  The return of Henry isn't nearly impactful is Tanny having both AJ and Julio to throw to off the PA.  Add to it the Bengals injury woes on the defensive side and the potential let down spot after winning the first playoff game in 30 years.  Anecdotal but I'll toss it in anyway.  KC Chiefs had won one playoff game, 2015, since they had Joe Montana in 1993.  Had won ZERO home playoff games since 93.  The game they won in 2015, after 22 years, they went on to lose the following week 27-20, losing ATS as 6 point dogs.  Alex Smith was QB.  Fast forward to 2018, Mahomes at home in KC, haven't seen a home win in 25 years.  Win. Followed that up with the infamous loss in AFC title game, which you could say the 1H was the let down (0-14 after 1H).  I guess my point is, as far as the let down factor goes, Burrow is more Mahomes than he is Alex.  But then again, Tannehill is no Tom.  

Packers defense in similar situation as Titans offense....help coming back with Jaire and Smith returning....olinemen Bakh and Turner.  I saw Lombardi suggest the Niners put Deebo back to return kicks....YES please....Packers worst special teams in the league, Crosby also likely blows one.  

Rams looked like a different offense with Akers back, fits that zone system unlike their other backs.  

Week 5 was a long time ago and was a huge revenge game for Josh Allen and the Bills....KC no Chris Jones, no Fast Willie Gay, Sorenson was full time starter instead of Thornill.... 4 turnovers for KC.  KC defense #1 in scoring allowed in 2H of season.  

Taking nothing away from this dominant Bills team, I have Bills Conference and SB tickets, all I'm saying is this game isn't going to be a 2 TD KC loss.  Do the Bills win close games??  No, they blow teams out when they win....this will either be the exception on the year or they lose another close one.  

BOL all 

Good luck bro 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Thanks, as always for the input.

Great stuff.

Burrow is still a rookie 

Uh, he isn't.   Deep insight here.

@vanzack

also take a look at SOS and playoff opponents for Bills/Chiefs.... 

I think Tenn. after a bye is 8-0 last 8. That and the Bengal QB 1st playoff start let alone on the road. Tenn. will win 28-24 type game.

Agree on Rams.

Also your write up on Packes game spot on to me as is the Bills/KC game BOL.

@kcblitzkrieg

 Oh I have.  Bills with 32 SOS.  I hate that.  BUT THEY PLAYED EACH OTHER.

@Degenbeter

 Good post.  Burrow's 2nd playoff start tho.

Those are my leans as well Fam ..

Very happy to read your thoughts 

If you like SF then the over is probably the better play. I have a hard time seeing SF top a healthy packers offense in Lambeau. On the other side the 49ers should have some success running the football. The only thing holding me off the over is Jimmy G's thumb/shoulder injury, but I may still play the over.

Four road dogs sounds good to me; I've got two units on SF and I have a SF-BUF alternate line parlay.

I hope the dogs will be barking and biting.

Gl Van thanks for posting......

Wow, really? house will win big

good luck bro nice writeups as well. 

On the Rams and Bills but taking the favorites on saturday

This has to be one of the shortest combined spread differences for the divisional round in quite some time. I actually can't remember lines being this short/close.

I'm still in the research phase but like the way you're leaning. The oddsmakers may have tipped their hand a bit this week.

You don't choose your sos but you can beatdown the teams on the schedule.  Bills won 12 games by 12+ points.  The only 7 other teams to do that all won the Superbowl.  

KC gets Jones back which is huge.  I think he's their best defender.  Bills lost Tre White, their best defender.  KC playing much better now than before, bt so are the Bills.  Should be a great game.

Personally, I think all these games are basically 50/50.  So give me all the dogs too.

There is a ton of newbie money flooding into sportsmoney....what is a newbie thinking?

1) Higher seed must be the better team (not necessarily true)

2) Better team playing at home is going to win (HFA this year is only 1.5 points roughly - according to Massey)

3) If the team is going to win, they will almost always cover a short line.

4) Tease a 6 point favorite down so you don't get backdoored

Best of luck to everyone this weekend, especially the refs.  I hope no one talks about them on Monday

I don't think there is any chance Warner doesn't play.  The question is how healthy he is.  

Bosa probably will play too, but a concussion can be very severe so he may not.

Full disclosure - I have the Niners at 43-1 to win SB.

Was this your only futures wager in this group?  Usually to win these huge odds wagers it takes quite a few stabs ( I would guess around 5 or 6 tickets). That decreases the ROI down from 43-1 to less than 9-1.  Still a good payout but with a poor QB.  If its 9-1 or less on the 49ers  not worth it in my opinion. 

49ers have a chance. but we will see if they will.  

I am in the dark on how you meander though your own process' so best wishes. 

@Onthereal

yes bc all the better teams won and covered in the wildcard round, and yes SF was the better team despite the spread