On the other side of the ball, not having Andrew Thomas will once again be a major concern for the Giants, but they've at least had one game under their belt without him. I trust Brian Daboll to make some key adjustments after last week's disaster ahead of a matchup against one of the league's best pass rushes.
I don't have much confidence in this Giants offense, but this is just too many points to pass up with points expected to come at a premium and I project the spread closer to 4-4.5. You want to fade this Steelers team when they need to win by a noteworthy margin, which is similar to other Tomlin teams in recent seasons. This just sets up as a great buy-low, sell-high spot on the Giants, who seem to perform at their best on the road as an underdog under Daniel Jones.
Here are a few trends that back up the Tomlin fade spot and why it might be a good time to buy low on the Giants as a road 'dog:
- Mike Tomlin as a favorite of more than a field goal: 57-73-1 ATS (43.8%), including 37-49-1 (43%) against opponents that don't have a winning record.
- Daniel Jones is 18-9 ATS (66.7%) as a road underdog, including 16-6 (72.7%) when catching over a field goal, covering by 2.5 points per game.
- The Giants lost 28-3 last week against the Eagles. Since 2005, underdogs that scored fewer than 10 points the week prior have gone 346-275-15 ATS (55.7%) and 125-87-8 (59%) after scoring 3 or fewer, including 76-52-4 (59.4%) following a loss of more than three touchdowns.
Tomlin is generally a cash cow in hype spots vs. good teams, but his teams can come out a bit flat against inferior opponents. This is also a Steelers offense that I'm not running to the window to back as a sizable favorite, especially in a game with a total of 36.5.
Give me the Giants on the road to keep this close.
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