Giants Under 9 - This season, 4 times the Giants will face a team coming off a bye week, that is the most for any team in the league. 5 times they will face opponents who have more rest/preparation than them. The Giants went 11-5 last year, but they won 8 games by a TD or less and went -9 yards per game net differential on the year. NY also had the 30th toughest schedule in 2016, but will have the 8th toughest this year. I expect the Giants to regress mightily.
Cardinals Over 8.5 - The Cardinals went a disappointed 7-8-1 last year after reaching the NFC Championship in 2015. If we look closely, the Cardinals were 2-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season meaning they could have easily notched several other wins. Also, they were #1 in total net yards per game at +61, just above the New England Patriots. They faced 4 opponents against teams off a bye last season (going 1-3), however 0 times this year. They also have a 3 game home stretch vs Jags, Rams, Titans. A huge scheduling advantage with 0 travel for the entire month in which they will be favorites in each game. Home favorites off a home game win 69% of the time straight up. The Cardinals had the 7th toughest schedule in 2016, but will have the 23rd toughest this year.
Saints Over 7.5 - The Saints went 7-9 in 2016 but I expect them to get better this year. They acquired a few new pieces both on offense and defense that will help them overall. ATL sweeped them last year but I doubt they’ll do it twice in a row with how well they play each other. I also expect both the Panthers and Bucs to regress. Surprising fact: the Saints were #3 in total net yards per game last season. They had the 4th toughest schedule last year but just the 15th toughest this year. Brees has another few years in him left, I expect a bounce-back season for them here with an improved defense.
Texans Under 8.5 - Texans are 10-2 within their division the last 2 years. With the Titans, Colts, and Jaguars all expected to be better this year - Houston has a lot of divisional revenge games facing them this season. Texans were also 8-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season. There not as good as last season’s record indicates as they were a -49 in net point differential on the year.
GL buddy
Like the Undertaker, back from the dead
so far
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