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NFL SEASON 2015-2016 PICKS

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Prospect
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Posted: #51
hmmmmmmm.... does this look like regression? top 7 teams wont cover every game 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #52
Points.... Is a total of 234   23 or 24? Are you rounding up on anything 1 and over on the 3rd digit?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by Pfotie:

Points.... Is a total of 234   23 or 24? Are you rounding up on anything 1 and over on the 3rd digit?


234/10 = 23.4. Thats 23. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE:

The system is coming back down to earth since those power ranked favorites can't cover every single week.

Thanks. I hope you did better yesterday. Congrats if you did.

Unfortunately, i will do the mods but won't share it here. I will just post my picks. I thought this was a community where people build things together not just criticize and grab. All you people on here do is make promises and statements that shows you guys have been waiting for it to fail. lol. I'm not worried.

How about developing something to continuously out think the Oddsmakers? Even if its for a short period of time? huh? 

I watched most games yesterday and for those that i didn't see.....i will look for the replays on youtube. I saw one similar factor between the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots. I will make the adjustments. 

If you notice, i stop answering most questions and removed the templates for the system. I'm content with just sharing the picks until i feel as if its not accepted.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by kingkovers21:

hmmmmmmm.... does this look like regression? top 7 teams wont cover every game 

Thanks. I hope you did better yesterday. Congrats if you did.

Unfortunately, i will do the mods but won't share it here. I will just post my picks. I thought this was a community where people build things together not just criticize and grab. All you people on here do is make promises and statements that shows you guys have been waiting for it to fail. lol. I'm not worried.

How about developing something to continuously out think the Oddsmakers? Even if its for a short period of time? huh? 

I watched most games yesterday and for those that i didn't see.....i will look for the replays on youtube. I saw one similar factor between the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots. I will make the adjustments. 

If you notice, i stop answering most questions and removed the templates for the system. I'm content with just sharing the picks until i feel as if its not accepted.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #56
Thanks for what you have shared so far PR.  I lost more than i hoped, but I still won money overall, so i can't complain.  No system is perfect and no one can expect to win every game.

I've already run the spreadsheet and figured out the predicted teams for Week 7.  Waiting of course for the Power Rankings to come out that might change 1 or 2 picks from what i can see so far.
 
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Posted: #57
I realized that back testing for information from years ago is not a good thing if you want to stay ahead of the oddmakers. They would have done researches for then and make the adjustments already. You got to stay current and play wise.  
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by Osiros:

Thanks for what you have shared so far PR.  I lost more than i hoped, but I still won money overall, so i can't complain.  No system is perfect and no one can expect to win every game.

I've already run the spreadsheet and figured out the predicted teams for Week 7.  Waiting of course for the Power Rankings to come out that might change 1 or 2 picks from what i can see so far.


Interestingly if i remove method #2 (add top 7 Power rankings) nd use only method #1 & #3. The season total would be:

WEEK 1 - 5-5
WEEK 2 - 8-3
WEEK 3 - 6-4
WEEK 4 - 7-1-1
WEEK 5 - 8-0
WEEK 6 - 4-2 with one game to go.

38-15-1: 72%

Its something, i will look into but before that i need to narrow down that 15 loss games.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #59
PR add me as a friend, thanks to your system I made a few tweaks and was able to get some O/U picks that I would like to run pass you, so far this week 9-4 and waiting for tonight game.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #60

Quote Originally Posted by PUNKCASH:

PR add me as a friend, thanks to your system I made a few tweaks and was able to get some O/U picks that I would like to run pass you, so far this week 9-4 and waiting for tonight game.

are you  going for the  under tonigth??

good luck

 
Prospect
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Posted: #61
is this (more or less) an accurate description of the system?

1. bet every team (regardless of spread) in the top 7 power rankings
2. if neither team is in the top 7, bet the team with the lower home points average
3. if step 2 results are equal, bet the team with the higher home points average


 
Prospect
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by TIMEOUT8:

are you  going for the  under tonigth??

good luck


Predictions says O50
 
Prospect
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by PUNKCASH:

PR add me as a friend, thanks to your system I made a few tweaks and was able to get some O/U picks that I would like to run pass you, so far this week 9-4 and waiting for tonight game.

PM if you want to share but i think i know what you did. 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 2732
Posted: #64
I'm by no means trying to diss your system. I think your contribution to this site is awesome and kind of refreshing as far as approach. Your system has been on an amazing run. A 50/50 week doesn't discredit any of that. I actually tailed you on 3 plays: Jags, Jets and Chiefs. I also went heavy on one of my own plays (Dolphins, since their coach got fired) and tailed another capper (LC on the chargers). BOL to ya and I'm sure you'll make the necessary adjustment.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #65
NFL Week 6 Results - Spread Prediction: 8-6-0: 57%. 14 plays from 14 games.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #66
NFL Weekly Results using these methods:

NFL Week 1 Results - Spread Prediction: 7-5-1: 54% *(UNDERDOG ONLY). 13 plays from 16 games.
NFL Week 2 Results - Spread Prediction: 13-3-0: 81%. 16 plays from 16 games.
NFL Week 3 Results - Spread Prediction: 11-4-0: 73%. 15 plays from 16 games.
NFL Week 4 Results - Spread Prediction: 10-4-0: 71%. 14 plays from 15 games.
NFL Week 5 Results - Spread Prediction: 10-1-1: 91%. 12 plays from 14 games.
NFL Week 6 Results - Spread Prediction: 8-6-0: 57%. 14 plays from 14 games.
 
NFL Season Record: 59-23-2: 72%

*(UNDERDOG ONLY) – I only use this method for Week 1 because POWER RANKINGS would be from last season performances only.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #67
I have posted a few times asking you questions on the system, however you replied with no answers except to look at your old posts. Then you ask people to help you but if you can't answer questions on it then how can people help?

What is the theory or the basis of the system, like what is it showing that home teams last 10 scores dictate their upcoming games ?
Why is that - or how can that be ?

I have a system to bet the road dog +3 and ML because they won last year @ a 60% rate - this is a system with a prediction that you will win 6 out 10 bets if you bet this all the time. 

Can you explain this to me on your system ?  and if not , then don't worry about a thing and need you to get mad 
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by PointsRator:



Interestingly if i remove method #2 (add top 7 Power rankings) nd use only method #1 & #3. The season total would be:

WEEK 1 - 5-5
WEEK 2 - 8-3
WEEK 3 - 6-4
WEEK 4 - 7-1-1
WEEK 5 - 8-0
WEEK 6 - 4-2 with one game to go.

38-15-1: 72%

Its something, i will look into but before that i need to narrow down that 15 loss games.


First off, I agree with you, a lot of people on here are just here to try and drag people down.  The thought is that those posters are books or work for the books.  I sort of can see the truth in that.  It's understandable that you'd only want to pick your plays...forget trying to "help" people on here as most are leaches anyways.  If people truly want to help and be helped, they'll message you.

Secondly, I agree with what you said above and have suggested this to you several times.  Here's my thought, the Top 7 are probably the most bet on teams because of the bandwagon fans.  In general, the bandwagon or "casual" gamblers are who bookmakers are after.  Hence, the oddsmakers put the most thought into these lines to trap or beat the casual gamblers.  The other less popular teams probably get much less effort and therefore looser lines and/or less vegas mind tricks, if you believe in that stuff.  You said it yourself in your very first post, in any week, at least 2 favorites will cover.  But you didn't say THEY ALL cover meaning on average only 3-4 will cover.  The numbers say betting the top 7 blindly will eventually become a 50/50 proposition in the long run.  Why pollute your system by adding a 50/50 proposition?

 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by theyoungson:

is this (more or less) an accurate description of the system?

1. bet every team (regardless of spread) in the top 7 power rankings
2. if neither team is in the top 7, bet the team with the lower home points average
3. if step 2 results are equal, bet the team with the higher home points average



NO.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by theyoungson:

is this (more or less) an accurate description of the system?

1. bet every team (regardless of spread) in the top 7 power rankings
2. if neither team is in the top 7, bet the team with the lower home points average
3. if step 2 results are equal, bet the team with the higher home points average



Actually, you said "more or less" so YES.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by bettingman103:

I have posted a few times asking you questions on the system, however you replied with no answers except to look at your old posts. Then you ask people to help you but if you can't answer questions on it then how can people help?

What is the theory or the basis of the system, like what is it showing that home teams last 10 scores dictate their upcoming games ?
Why is that - or how can that be ?

I have a system to bet the road dog +3 and ML because they won last year @ a 60% rate - this is a system with a prediction that you will win 6 out 10 bets if you bet this all the time. 

Can you explain this to me on your system ?  and if not , then don't worry about a thing and need you to get mad 

"If you notice, i stop answering most questions and removed the templates for the system. I'm content with just sharing the picks until i feel as if its not accepted."
 
Prospect
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Posts: 421
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


First off, I agree with you, a lot of people on here are just here to try and drag people down.  The thought is that those posters are books or work for the books.  I sort of can see the truth in that.  It's understandable that you'd only want to pick your plays...forget trying to "help" people on here as most are leaches anyways.  If people truly want to help and be helped, they'll message you.

Secondly, I agree with what you said above and have suggested this to you several times.  Here's my thought, the Top 7 are probably the most bet on teams because of the bandwagon fans.  In general, the bandwagon or "casual" gamblers are who bookmakers are after.  Hence, the oddsmakers put the most thought into these lines to trap or beat the casual gamblers.  The other less popular teams probably get much less effort and therefore looser lines and/or less vegas mind tricks, if you believe in that stuff.  You said it yourself in your very first post, in any week, at least 2 favorites will cover.  But you didn't say THEY ALL cover meaning on average only 3-4 will cover.  The numbers say betting the top 7 blindly will eventually become a 50/50 proposition in the long run.  Why pollute your system by adding a 50/50 proposition?


Its was all apart of what was original discovered but i see your point. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #73
Not trying to disagree with you and wish you the best, however I just don't understand what your system does. 

Maybe others do, but I do not - other than taking the last 10 team home scores and then putting a top 7 ranking. 

Your streak is on fire - thanks for posting - best of luck 
 
Captain
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Posts: 9064
Posted: #74
Saludos! Great job keep up the good work
The pen is mightier than the pigs
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #75
I think op is slowly realizing as he's watching these games how many more variables there are to consider... And for those that know me.. They know that im first to believe shananagans happen... What should have been a score wasnt because of a penalty or a no call to make that score final score what it is... Or a meaningless backdoor touch down in the final minutes when your team is down by 21... These situations can easily alter and throw off the numbers... Other than the numbers itself and as reliable as espn keeps up with its consistancy which i don't think you have the data for to back test on a week to week basis... You can only hope those percentages stay high...

As i said,, i think its a fade the public type of play... He calls it a trap.. Well who are they trapping? The public right? There you go its the same thing you can only assume... Because the public goes by what they see,, and low scoring is usually perceived as bad.. Even if it was resulted in a low scoring game on a win,, the public can see this as a bad or a lucky win... Now you opened more doors,, now you have to differentiate what is luck, shenanigans, variance,coaching,motivation,weather? Just to name a few... 

But its a very good starting point because we are all here to look for high percentage and reliable results that can maybe be streamlined....This is just the data side...

Now Remember this sport or form of entertainment is controlled by human beings not something as simple as counting cards in blackjack persay..  And what you see on Tv is never fully captured... I remember seeing this one play where the seahawks was playing on a thursday night about 3-4 years ago where a pass was clearly incomplete,, the receiver caught the pass after it bounced on the ground,, and the camera man immediately turn the camera away,, not only did they not replay it,, they went straight to a comercial,, anyways long story short they gave it to the seahawks... 

Now i spend 10-12 hours per day on this 7 days per week for 5 years... You can imagine how much data i have right? But just to give you a jist about 100 pages worth.. And on my main page it is so congested that i have notes written in each cell,, color coded,, scoring diferentials,, dog/fav,, road,home,, backdoor,,outright dogs,, teams that loses by certain margins  or were shut out,, teams that scored or won by more than x,, ats and outright,, individually graded games where i thought shenanigans has happend and noted,, totals ats,, line movement open to close results,,, early juiced side/late juiced side and results,,, situational trend lines,, large/small market score week specific ats,, Primetime qb against non prime qb ats trends,,, how teams do after win/loss against certain opponents the following game,, divisional, conference,, and non,, primetime specified along with total,, weekly trend heat map,,, ... 

Now this is just one page,, one of my bigger ones,, but theres about 60 spread sheets or so in total... And there's always a way to tweak it... 

Just make sure you are ready for the work load... I've been through hell and back with data,, and watching thousands of games that i still have to extract and record into multiple spread sheets,, that's data right there,, watching the game itself... 

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