*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 1

How's the Covers family doing these days?

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams

I don’t like the Seahawks as much coming into this season. They are a run-first team who gave up one of the best centers in the league for a TE who won’t be as productive getting throws from Wilson. Also they have several injuries on the defensive end of the field as well as the holdout situation with Chancellor. There’s always the Superbowl hangover effect early in the season as well. Despite all that, this isn’t the time to fade them. Rams are always a trendy pick as underdogs as we’ve seen them beat big-time foes over the past few years including the Seahawks last year. One thing I remember very clearly though, is that the Rams won that game mostly due to gimmick and trick plays. In last year’s 28-26 win against the Seahawks, the Rams were outgained 463 to 275, lost the first down battle 25 to 18, third down conversions 50% to 44%, and TOP by 5 minutes. Sure they have a better QB this time around but do they have enough pieces around him to beat a Seattle team that is still top 5 in defense despite all their injuries? The Rams have their RB1 and RB2 out with injuries and have the following offensive line going against SEA’s very deep DLine.

·         LT 12 Career Starts

·         LG 0 Career Starts

·         C 4 Career Starts (was undrafted a few years ago)

·         RG 60 Career Starts

·         RT 0 Career Starts

Seattle will not overlook a lesser opponent because they have GB on deck. The Rams are a divisional opponent and one of just 4 teams to beat them in the regular season last year. I like Seattle to take care of business in week 1.

Detroit Lions @ SD Chargers

The Chargers have been a so called sleeper team for years now. Very high hopes for this team yet they fail to do anything year after year. The Lions are actually the team flying under the radar at the moment. Yes they lost Suh, but they picked up Haloti Ngata who is an absolute monster. On top of that, the Lions got a huge upgrade on the offensive line, as well as a healthy Calvin Johnson. This team had the #2 overall defense last year going 11-5 with their only losses being @ARI, @NE, @GB, @CAR, vs BUF. I don’t expect a huge falloff for them, despite losing Suh or Fairley. The Chargers spent weeks talking about moving to Los Angeles and trade rumors of dealing Philip Rivers. Detroit has had a pretty quiet offseason thus far and although I wish Levy was healthy for this one, they should start off with a week 1 victory here. 

Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Bucs

I usually don’t like taking a rookie QB in his first road game but I really like the Titans here. If he was playing in a hostile environment I’d pass but TB has the worst homefield advantage in the league and don’t boast a scary defense so Mariota should be okay here. The Titans were 2-14 last year but they weren’t as bad as their record indicated as they had just a -0.1 YPP differential through the entire season. Compare that to the Raiders at -1.0, Jaguars at -0.8, Bucs -0.5, and Jets -0.4 and you’ll see the Titans weren’t the worst team in the league. This year they bring in person Labeau who is 19-2 against rookie QBs while the Bucs bring in Jameis Winston who was a turnover machine in College. I’d be surprised if the Titans struggled here.

·         Titans +3 (3.5x)

·         Seahawks -3.5 (2x)

·         Bears +7 -120 (2.5x)

·         Saints +110 (2.5x)

·         Lions +3 (3x)

·         Texans +7 / Bills +9.5 (2x)

·         Titans +10 / Lions +10 (2x)