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New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Out of the 32 teams in the NFL, who had the most disappointing season last year? That would have to be the ATL Falcons.
2010 - 13-3 (5-1 DIV) - Lost Divisional Round of Playoffs
2011 - 10-6 (3-3 DIV) - Lost Wildcard Round of Playoffs
2012 - 13-3 (3-3 DIV) - Lost Conference Round of Playoffs
After a 36-12 Record and 3 straight trips to the playoffs, the ATL Falcons went 4-12 last year only winning 1 game within the division. Most of this was due to injuries and a running game that was dead last in the league. With Roddy White and Julio Jones battling injuries all year, opposing teams were able to lock down against the run and leave very little options for the Falcons.
White and Jones are fully healthy now, which will not only help there passing game, but there run game as well. ATL's defense will still be pretty bad, but let's not forget the Saints are mediocre on the road. They went 1-7 ATS on the road last year, compared to 7-0-1 ATS at home. ATL has been waiting for this game for a while, they will be out to prove they are not a 4-12 team. And what better venue to do it then at home against there most hated rival. Week 1 is an early statement game for ATL.
Certain teams* in week 1 of the season are 19-1 ATS when facing a divisional opponent that beat them both games last season.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
The Pats have won the division 11 of the past 12 years but as I stated last year, the rest of the division is slowly learning how to play against them. Last year the Pats were 2-4 ATS against the division while 6-4 ATS outside the division. They barely squeaked by the Bills in week 1 thanks to a late serge, and struggled mightily against the Jets and the Dolphins.
Week 2: Patriots 13, Jets 10. - Patriots got out-gained 318 to 232, lost the time of possession battle 34:00 to 26:00, and trailed first downs 15-9.
Week 7: Patriots 27, Jets 30. - Patriots got out-gained 295 to 383, lost the time of possession battle 36:20 to 23:40, and trailed first downs 27-21.
Week 9: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17. - Patriots won this game late but were trailing 17-3 at halftime. Patriots got out-gained 301 to 252, lost the time of possession battle 34:59 to 25:01, and trailed first downs 23-19.
Week 15: Patriots 20, Dolphins 24. - Pats won total yardage 453 to 378, won the time of possession 31:21 to 28:39, and won total first downs 29-20, yet lost the game.
The Pats are the powerhouse of the AFC East, but as seen above, the rest of the division has been playing better against them recently. The Pats will play 6 divisional games this year, but 1 of those will be a far better fade than the rest. 4 of the games are against the Jets and Bills - who have much worse teams this year making it hard to back either one. That leaves 2 against the Dolphins. The Patriots are pretty tough to beat in New England, meaning this game in Miami is the best time to fade the Patriots within the division. Miami will be a lot better this year with Tannehill having another year under his belt. I think they'll give this Pats team all they can while Belichick learns his new personnel on defense.
- Falcons +3 (4x)
- Dolphins +4 (3x)
- Rams -3 (-120) (2x)
- Falcons +9.5 / Dolphins +11 (3x)
2013 NFL Regular Season: +104.76 Units
2013 NFL Playoffs: 6-2 ATS
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