*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 2

Was spot on with the Jags and Cowboys last week, but whiffed on the Titans, Seahawks, and 49ers which were admittedly all wrong sides. Love week 2's card, and am expecting a nice profit this week.

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are my top play in week 2. Pittsburgh is my pick to represent the AFC in the Superbowl this year - and I expect them to showcase their contender status in their home opener. Minnesota on the other hand, is coming into this game highly overvalued. The #1 thing to remember for week 2 in the NFL is that teams are not as good and not as bad as they appeared in week 1. Minnesota put up 470 yards of offense last week, but did so at home on MNF facing a Saints team that is historically bad on the road and playing a defense with many new pieces in their first game together. The Steelers only put up 290 total yards last week, but let’s remember they are never a good play on as a road favorite (44% ATS). But they are a dominant home team covering 57% of the time during Big Ben’s career. The Vikings are starting 5 new offensive lineman this year, a brand new group that performed well at home in week 1.. They will now get a true test on the road against a very blitz heavy Pittsburgh team in their home opener. I don’t play props but I expect PITT to have multiple sacks in this one.

Dogs off a Home Win where they gained 435+ yards are 16-43 ATS (27%).

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

Pats being highly overrated currently. I know how good they are off a loss, mostly because they are my favorite team and I’ve watched every single game they’ve played over the years. Pats are Superbowl contenders every year due to continuity. Same stud coach, same stud offensive coordinator, and same stud QB each and every year. But currently this team just has way too many new pieces on the field. Take a look at who they had during the playoffs last year vs now:

Receivers in 2016 Playoffs: Edelman, Amendola , Bennett, Mitchell, Hogan

Receivers in Week 2: Hogan, Gronkowski, Cooks (2nd game), Dwayne Allen (2nd game)

On defense, one of our best pass rushers Ninkovich retired, CB Logan Ryan gone, and our best linebacker hightower is injured.

The Pats will be fine later in the year, but it’s just way too early in the season with a huge group of new guys.

The Saints underperformed last week, but as mentioned above, they are a much better home team than playing on the road. Last week they played well in between the 20s, reaching the end zone 5 times, but scored just 1 touchdown out of those 5 trips. I expect that to change this week playing in the Superdome against a much worse NE defense.

Week 2 Home Dogs of less than a touchdown off a loss are 21-5 ATS since 2010.

Drew Brees is also 9-1 ATS as a home underdog

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos

Love the Broncos here. Played the Cowboys big last weekend due to how low I am on the Giants this year. They were severely lucky and hugely overrated last season based on their stats vs their record. Dallas will have a much harder time this week playing one of the top defenses in the league on the road. Dallas isn’t as good as they were last year as they lost two key offensive lineman which is the strength of their team, but week 1 against a bad NY team wasn’t the time to fade them. Week 2 as a road favorite against a great defense is.