*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 3

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Love the Jags in this spot. Wrote about why I like this team in my season bet for them to go over 6.5 wins but this defense is stacked. The Jags will be playing in London for their 5th time, while the Ravens will be making their first trip which is surely a distraction as players tend to have their minds on other things besides just football. Baltimore also has a huge game against divisional rival Steelers next and it’s easy to see how the Ravens won’t be entirely focused for the Jags here who are off a blowout loss. (Baltimore is 0-7 ATS last 7 games before PITT) The Ravens 20-0 victory over the Bengals doesn’t look as good now seeing how inept Cincy played in week 2 and their second victory was against a rookie QB playing his first road start in the NFL. Ravens 2-0 start is nothing to boast about here. The Jags always play Baltimore tough, as both games the past 2 years were decided by 2 points each time with each team winning once. Baltimore also just lost their best offensive lineman for the year, and one of their starting defensive tackles for a few weeks. I like the Jags to go up 2-1 on the season.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants just lost two games in embarrassing fashion, both on primetime TV; but now get a chance to save their season against a team they know very well. If you don’t know how profitable that is, teams are 21-8 ATS (72.4%) off b2b ATSL on SNF/MNF the last 15 years. That number improves to 25-4 ATS (86.2%) with a 6 point tease. The Eagles just played two big games, getting revenge over the season sweep from last season Redskins, and then a nailbiter in Kansas City putting up 400 yards in a loss. Philly will play tough here trying to put NY away, but I like the Giants chances to win SU due to their desparation factor while facing a familar foe. Home favorites in week 3 with regular rest are 32-66 ATS (32%) off a road loss (Eagles, Packers, Vikings). Most people would be surprised to hear the Giants only gave up 257 yards of total offense to Detroit last week. They were even in yardage, but lost by 14 thanks mostly to an 88 yard part return. NY played great defense, and they were missing their starting middle linebacker as well as their top cornerback - both of whom are expected back this week. On offense, Odell Beckham was playing his first game back from injury, and Brandon Marshall his 2nd game with Eli. They combined for just 5 catches for 53 yards as they had no rhythm within the offense. Special teams gave up a TD, the offense was still trying to find their groove, and the defense was missing two of their best players. All 3 phases of this team will surely be much more focused here in Philly. The Giants are at their best playing on the road, as they are 46-25 ATS (64.8%) the past 10 years when travelling, as long as the game isn’t on primetime (they are 12-16 ATS on the road on primetime). I expect them to show up big here with their season on the line.

Edit: Giants downgraded from play of the month to 4 units for now, as Goodson has now been ruled out and Jenkins is questionable. Now also passing on ML and Eagles TT under. If Jenkins suits up, I may upgrade this. 

• Jaguars +4 (3x)
• Giants +6 (4x)
• Bills +3 (4x)
• Seahawks +3 -120 (5x)

• Steelers -1.5 / Giants +17 -120 (2x)
• Steelers -1.5 / Bengals +17 -120 (2x)
• Redskins +10 / Seahawks +9.5 -120 (3x)
• Jags +11 / Bills +10 -120 (3x)

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

The Broncos were one of my biggest plays of the weekend against Dallas but I will be fading them large here. I mentioned why Denver was in a great spot last week, playing at home with a great defense against a Dallas team that just beat up on an overrated Giants squad on primetime. Well now they are in a similar situation on the opposite end, Denver just blewout a Dallas team that has regressed slightly, and now have to travel for their first road game of the year against a very good defense. On top of that, they are a western team playing an early game on the east coast. We saw Arizona garbage the bed in weeks one and two in a similar situation. Buffalo is another one of those teams in recent years that is a much better cover at home vs on the road (43% vs 57%). I also like playing home dogs that lost a very close game the week prior. As Buffalo came to the final play against Carolina, they are sure to play that much more focused on each down this week knowing how important each play is. Denver will have a much harder time moving the sticks here.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tenneessee Titans

Say hello to the most underrated team in the NFL. Two garbage performances by the offense and now the Seahawks are 3 point dogs in Tennessee. Seattle easily has one of the best defenses in the league. They limited the Packers to 17 points in Green Bay, AFTER gifting them a free touchdown by fumbling at their own 5 yard line. Yes the offense needs work, but Pete Carroll hinted at shaking things up on their offensive line for week 3. Given how bad they've been, we can only expect an upgrade coming out of this. Also, Seahawks had the most drops in the NFL last week with a total of 5. Their offense can only go up from here and now people are starting to doubt them as Super Bowl contenders. Tennessee will get Seattle's full attention here, and I'd be surprised if the Titans win this game.