*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 4

Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons

Even though the Falcons are 3-0, they are underrated in my eyes. Reason being is people are thinking they should have been beat by the Lions last week. If you look at the numbers, ATL dominated that game and outgained Detroit by 100+ yards. ATL was a -3 in turnover margin, and still won on the road - that rarely ever happens. A few fluky turnovers made that game close, otherwise ATL would have had a double digit win. Atlanta is even better than people think they are right now, and are a dominant home team who rarely turns the ball over on their home turf. Buffalo does not have the offense to keep up here. Atlanta should win comfortably.

St. Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys

Looks like the Cowboys are being undervalued here. The Rams two victories so far have been against the Colts and the 49ers. People remember how well the Rams looked against SF, but QBs always play better when they throw from a clean pocket all night (especially rookie QBs). San Francisco is 31rst in the league in sacks this year, no wonder Goff went 22-28 for 292 yards and 3 TDs. This week he will be going up against the Cowboys who are 2nd in the league in sacks. He won’t have the luxury of a clean pocket this time around. Rest definitely favors the Rams here having played last Thursday, but they are still at a big disadvantage here. Everyone’s wondering what’s wrong with the Cowboys and what’s wrong with Zeke. Well they’ve faced the Giants, Cardinals, and Broncos: 3 of the better defenses in the league, and 2 of those 3 games have been on the road. The Cowboys are 8-0 in their last 8 home games winning by an average of 11.5 points per game. They will have a much easier time moving the sticks against a Rams defense that gave up 229 rushing yards to the Redskins. Additionally, two of the Rams wide receivers got a concussion last weekend. Even if they are cleared to play, they won’t be 100%. I like the Cowboys to take care of business here.

Also, lots of people seemed concerned about the rest factor as well as Cowboys facing the Packers next week. Well the Rams face the Seahawks next week as well and teams with 8 days or more rest with a divisional opponent on deck, facing a team with 5 or less days rest are 6-18 ATS (25%) since 1999. 

Cincinatti Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Despite being 0-3, the Browns still have a positive yards per game differential on the year. They’ve only played one home game so far which was a 3 point loss to the Steelers. The Bengals, had 10 days of rest prior to last week’s game and put everything they had into beating the Green Bay Packers yet came up just short in overtime. Hard to see them being able to muster up the same amount of energy on the road against an 0-3 team. The Bengals need this win, but Cleveland can be a very scrappy team at home. Should be a very close game.

• Raiders +3 (5x)
• Falcons -8 (4x)
• Browns +3.5 -120 (4x)
• Cowboys -6 (3x)
• Titans -2 (2x)

• Browns +10 / Raiders +9.5 (2x)
• Chiefs PK / Chargers +7 (3x)
• Seahawks -1 / Chargers +13 / Falcons +3.5 / Raiders +15.5 (4x)

NFL YTD: +7.0 Units