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NFL Sunday Week 3....

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Legend
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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats:

@vanzack  I certainly don't like being on the opposite side of legendary capper, vanzack, but I've got the Chiefs and Eagles today. My Power Ratings though, have the Patriots and Jets as top plays, and the Panthers, Raiders, and Cardinals as secondary plays. KC is my subjective pick, as my ratings make the game right on the number. The Bills are my top play of the day. The Phins passing game has looked great, but their D has been terrible. I just don't see how Miami can slow down the Bills. I do have several prop bets on Tyreek Hill to have a monster day. Over 125 rec yds at +550 / over 110 yds at +350 / over 100 yds at +230 / and over 90 yds at +162. What's your take on the Bills/Dolphins game, and my Hill props?  Thanks, and GL.

Bills / Dolphins line is right where I think it should be.  No edge for me on this line.

Can understand your argument for the Bills, but I think this game could go either way.

GL

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Posted: #52

keep killing it buddy

 
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Posted: #53

Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term.peace_5 

 
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Posted: #54

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by jefff: what is appealing about the Panthers?  2-14 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16.   I'm certainly not advocating for the Saints but it feels like you're asking for a bad team to win for you and you're predicting *this* is the game they do it.the have been more competitive this year but still finding ways to lose it seems Not exactly. I bet on bad teams all the time. Earlier in this thread - I was talking about a team or teams that are just toxic.  I am aware that the Panthers are on a double digit ATS loss streak.  But they are not that level yet.  They might be, but not yet. Carolina is statistically better in adjusted stats than the Saints on offense, defense, and special teams. This is a do or die week for them. I have them as a 3 pt favorite today. GL

 

Baker was out at the Presidents Cup yesterday instead of studying game tape and staying off his feet. What a chump Mayfield is lol 

 
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Posted: #55

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term.

Which game?

Really matters.

Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5)

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Posted: #56

Usually - they are fairly priced.  2 is a very key number these days.  +2.5 to the ML should be between 25 and 35 cents.

GLpeace_5

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Posted: #57

Vanzack good stuff as usual. Looks like a tough Survivor week. I'm leaning toward the Vikes. Any thoughts on if you can see thr Lions winning outright? Or anything you like better straight up? Thanks man and GL this season ??

 
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Posted: #58

Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by jefff: what is appealing about the Panthers?  2-14 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16.   I'm certainly not advocating for the Saints but it feels like you're asking for a bad team to win for you and you're predicting *this* is the game they do it.the have been more competitive this year but still finding ways to lose it seems Not exactly. I bet on bad teams all the time. Earlier in this thread - I was talking about a team or teams that are just toxic.  I am aware that the Panthers are on a double digit ATS loss streak.  But they are not that level yet.  They might be, but not yet. Carolina is statistically better in adjusted stats than the Saints on offense, defense, and special teams. This is a do or die week for them. I have them as a 3 pt favorite today. GL   Baker was out at the Presidents Cup yesterday instead of studying game tape and staying off his feet. What a chump Mayfield is lol

These things are just noise.  They dont bother me in the least, dont care, dont even look at it.

Just my opinion...

GL

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Posted: #59

clover Like your Pats play. Good spot to gamble on them. Knock 'em dead today.

RT2

 
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Posted: #60

It would bother me if I was his teammate, it's not noise it's real life. Why go support a friend Max Homa when you have your own job to do. Why not spend every moment preparing for your job especially when you're 0-2......I'd question him all day long if that was my QB

 
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Posted: #61

Hey Van,

Nice work. Just curious, do you ever play the ML on any/all of your wagers? Particularly your dog plays. Thanks in advance. 

 

 
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Posted: #62

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term. Which game? Really matters. Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5)
Any game. Just curious how often a dog loses by 1 or 2 points in the NFL. Context matters for sure (teams/game total etc)....Like Carolina +2.5 would hold more value with game total of 41 as opposed to if Miami was +2.5 (instead of 4.5) today with a game total of 54. No big deal, just curious where the math bends the curve making the ML more valuable....

 
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Posted: #63

@easymoney8474

 Seems trivial. Players need to get away from football. 24/7 not always a good idea. 

 
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Posted: #64

 

@Newtons Law

 Ask Bellichek how that would go? 

 
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Posted: #65

No need to attend, he can watch on TV.

 

Best part is the interviewd Homa after the round and he said " I wish I saw him ( mayfield) out there" lol

 

 
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Posted: #66

BOL Van! clover

 
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Posted: #67

Quote Originally Posted by ProphetLord:

Vanzack good stuff as usual. Looks like a tough Survivor week. I'm leaning toward the Vikes. Any thoughts on if you can see thr Lions winning outright? Or anything you like better straight up? Thanks man and GL this season ??

I lost 2 entries on week 1, so I might not be the person to ask lol.

Tough week.  Vikings as good of a pick as anyone IMO.

GL

peace_5

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Posted: #68

Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

Like your Pats play. Good spot to gamble on them. Knock 'em dead today. RT2

an_cheers

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Posted: #69

Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:

It would bother me if I was his teammate, it's not noise it's real life. Why go support a friend Max Homa when you have your own job to do. Why not spend every moment preparing for your job especially when you're 0-2......I'd question him all day long if that was my QB

 

Your post sounds like a report from Skip Bayless, or Tom Rinaldi.

I am not sure I buy in to what you are selling here.  You think the other players have a problem with it?  Really?  I think we are going to have to agree to disagree here.  But GL.

peace_5

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Posted: #70

Thanks for sharing Van! Always appreciate it bud!

My favorite avatar in covers

 
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Posted: #71

@vanzack

 

 Sure we can do that. All the best.  His top WR already expressed his opinion about having him on the team before the Trade happened lol. This can't help his stock!!

 

 
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Posted: #72

Quote Originally Posted by ad1260:

Hey Van, Nice work. Just curious, do you ever play the ML on any/all of your wagers? Particularly your dog plays. Thanks in advance.

Yes.  I do.  Quite often.

I have written about this in longer form if you want to search it...

But I look at every game as having a bunch of different line / price options.  Along the line of what poster Train asked above.  I look at ALL of them, and part of my process is to determine which line / price is the best VALUE for that particular game.

So while I post "Pats +2.5" - I do that because that is the PRIMARY line and what people want to see who read these posts.  But in actuality, these are the Pats lines available:
Pats +3 -128
Pats +2.5 -105
Pats +2 -102
Pats +1.5 +101
Pats +1 +106
Pats ML +125

A big part of what I do is determining which of those lines is the best value for this game.  And it is different game to game (and is a semi subjective calculation).  

Short answer - yes I bet MLs a lot.  I also bet spreads that are off the primary line a lot also.  Happy to get in to a longer more detailed discussion on an off day.

GL

peace_5

 

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Posted: #73

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term. Which game? Really matters. Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5) Any game. Just curious how often a dog loses by 1 or 2 points in the NFL. Context matters for sure (teams/game total etc)....Like Carolina +2.5 would hold more value with game total of 41 as opposed to if Miami was +2.5 (instead of 4.5) today with a game total of 54. No big deal, just curious where the math bends the curve making the ML more valuable....

 Train, ask me again on an off day - but THIS THREAD might answer some of your questions..

peace_5

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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by CravinMorehead:

Thanks for sharing Van! Always appreciate it bud! My favorite avatar in covers

an_roll_laughthumbs_up

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Posted: #75

Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:

@vanzack    Sure we can do that. All the best.  His top WR already expressed his opinion about having him on the team before the Trade happened lol. This can't help his stock!!

an_cheers

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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