@vanzack I certainly don't like being on the opposite side of legendary capper, vanzack, but I've got the Chiefs and Eagles today. My Power Ratings though, have the Patriots and Jets as top plays, and the Panthers, Raiders, and Cardinals as secondary plays. KC is my subjective pick, as my ratings make the game right on the number. The Bills are my top play of the day. The Phins passing game has looked great, but their D has been terrible. I just don't see how Miami can slow down the Bills. I do have several prop bets on Tyreek Hill to have a monster day. Over 125 rec yds at +550 / over 110 yds at +350 / over 100 yds at +230 / and over 90 yds at +162. What's your take on the Bills/Dolphins game, and my Hill props? Thanks, and GL.
Bills / Dolphins line is right where I think it should be. No edge for me on this line.
Can understand your argument for the Bills, but I think this game could go either way.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats:
@vanzack I certainly don't like being on the opposite side of legendary capper, vanzack, but I've got the Chiefs and Eagles today. My Power Ratings though, have the Patriots and Jets as top plays, and the Panthers, Raiders, and Cardinals as secondary plays. KC is my subjective pick, as my ratings make the game right on the number. The Bills are my top play of the day. The Phins passing game has looked great, but their D has been terrible. I just don't see how Miami can slow down the Bills. I do have several prop bets on Tyreek Hill to have a monster day. Over 125 rec yds at +550 / over 110 yds at +350 / over 100 yds at +230 / and over 90 yds at +162. What's your take on the Bills/Dolphins game, and my Hill props? Thanks, and GL.
Bills / Dolphins line is right where I think it should be. No edge for me on this line.
Can understand your argument for the Bills, but I think this game could go either way.
Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term.
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Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term.
Quote Originally Posted by jefff: what is appealing about the Panthers? 2-14 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16. I'm certainly not advocating for the Saints but it feels like you're asking for a bad team to win for you and you're predicting *this* is the game they do it.the have been more competitive this year but still finding ways to lose it seems Not exactly. I bet on bad teams all the time. Earlier in this thread - I was talking about a team or teams that are just toxic. I am aware that the Panthers are on a double digit ATS loss streak. But they are not that level yet. They might be, but not yet. Carolina is statistically better in adjusted stats than the Saints on offense, defense, and special teams. This is a do or die week for them. I have them as a 3 pt favorite today. GL
Baker was out at the Presidents Cup yesterday instead of studying game tape and staying off his feet. What a chump Mayfield is lol
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by jefff: what is appealing about the Panthers? 2-14 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16. I'm certainly not advocating for the Saints but it feels like you're asking for a bad team to win for you and you're predicting *this* is the game they do it.the have been more competitive this year but still finding ways to lose it seems Not exactly. I bet on bad teams all the time. Earlier in this thread - I was talking about a team or teams that are just toxic. I am aware that the Panthers are on a double digit ATS loss streak. But they are not that level yet. They might be, but not yet. Carolina is statistically better in adjusted stats than the Saints on offense, defense, and special teams. This is a do or die week for them. I have them as a 3 pt favorite today. GL
Baker was out at the Presidents Cup yesterday instead of studying game tape and staying off his feet. What a chump Mayfield is lol
Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term.
Which game?
Really matters.
Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5)
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term.
Which game?
Really matters.
Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5)
Vanzack good stuff as usual. Looks like a tough Survivor week. I'm leaning toward the Vikes. Any thoughts on if you can see thr Lions winning outright? Or anything you like better straight up? Thanks man and GL this season ??
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Vanzack good stuff as usual. Looks like a tough Survivor week. I'm leaning toward the Vikes. Any thoughts on if you can see thr Lions winning outright? Or anything you like better straight up? Thanks man and GL this season ??
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by jefff: what is appealing about the Panthers? 2-14 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16. I'm certainly not advocating for the Saints but it feels like you're asking for a bad team to win for you and you're predicting *this* is the game they do it.the have been more competitive this year but still finding ways to lose it seems Not exactly. I bet on bad teams all the time. Earlier in this thread - I was talking about a team or teams that are just toxic. I am aware that the Panthers are on a double digit ATS loss streak. But they are not that level yet. They might be, but not yet. Carolina is statistically better in adjusted stats than the Saints on offense, defense, and special teams. This is a do or die week for them. I have them as a 3 pt favorite today. GL Baker was out at the Presidents Cup yesterday instead of studying game tape and staying off his feet. What a chump Mayfield is lol
These things are just noise. They dont bother me in the least, dont care, dont even look at it.
Just my opinion...
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by jefff: what is appealing about the Panthers? 2-14 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16. I'm certainly not advocating for the Saints but it feels like you're asking for a bad team to win for you and you're predicting *this* is the game they do it.the have been more competitive this year but still finding ways to lose it seems Not exactly. I bet on bad teams all the time. Earlier in this thread - I was talking about a team or teams that are just toxic. I am aware that the Panthers are on a double digit ATS loss streak. But they are not that level yet. They might be, but not yet. Carolina is statistically better in adjusted stats than the Saints on offense, defense, and special teams. This is a do or die week for them. I have them as a 3 pt favorite today. GL Baker was out at the Presidents Cup yesterday instead of studying game tape and staying off his feet. What a chump Mayfield is lol
These things are just noise. They dont bother me in the least, dont care, dont even look at it.
It would bother me if I was his teammate, it's not noise it's real life. Why go support a friend Max Homa when you have your own job to do. Why not spend every moment preparing for your job especially when you're 0-2......I'd question him all day long if that was my QB
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It would bother me if I was his teammate, it's not noise it's real life. Why go support a friend Max Homa when you have your own job to do. Why not spend every moment preparing for your job especially when you're 0-2......I'd question him all day long if that was my QB
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term. Which game? Really matters. Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5)
Any game. Just curious how often a dog loses by 1 or 2 points in the NFL. Context matters for sure (teams/game total etc)....Like Carolina +2.5 would hold more value with game total of 41 as opposed to if Miami was +2.5 (instead of 4.5) today with a game total of 54. No big deal, just curious where the math bends the curve making the ML more valuable....
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term. Which game? Really matters. Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5)
Any game. Just curious how often a dog loses by 1 or 2 points in the NFL. Context matters for sure (teams/game total etc)....Like Carolina +2.5 would hold more value with game total of 41 as opposed to if Miami was +2.5 (instead of 4.5) today with a game total of 54. No big deal, just curious where the math bends the curve making the ML more valuable....
Vanzack good stuff as usual. Looks like a tough Survivor week. I'm leaning toward the Vikes. Any thoughts on if you can see thr Lions winning outright? Or anything you like better straight up? Thanks man and GL this season ??
I lost 2 entries on week 1, so I might not be the person to ask lol.
Tough week. Vikings as good of a pick as anyone IMO.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by ProphetLord:
Vanzack good stuff as usual. Looks like a tough Survivor week. I'm leaning toward the Vikes. Any thoughts on if you can see thr Lions winning outright? Or anything you like better straight up? Thanks man and GL this season ??
I lost 2 entries on week 1, so I might not be the person to ask lol.
Tough week. Vikings as good of a pick as anyone IMO.
It would bother me if I was his teammate, it's not noise it's real life. Why go support a friend Max Homa when you have your own job to do. Why not spend every moment preparing for your job especially when you're 0-2......I'd question him all day long if that was my QB
Your post sounds like a report from Skip Bayless, or Tom Rinaldi.
I am not sure I buy in to what you are selling here. You think the other players have a problem with it? Really? I think we are going to have to agree to disagree here. But GL.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:
It would bother me if I was his teammate, it's not noise it's real life. Why go support a friend Max Homa when you have your own job to do. Why not spend every moment preparing for your job especially when you're 0-2......I'd question him all day long if that was my QB
Your post sounds like a report from Skip Bayless, or Tom Rinaldi.
I am not sure I buy in to what you are selling here. You think the other players have a problem with it? Really? I think we are going to have to agree to disagree here. But GL.
Sure we can do that. All the best. His top WR already expressed his opinion about having him on the team before the Trade happened lol. This can't help his stock!!
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@vanzack
Sure we can do that. All the best. His top WR already expressed his opinion about having him on the team before the Trade happened lol. This can't help his stock!!
Hey Van, Nice work. Just curious, do you ever play the ML on any/all of your wagers? Particularly your dog plays. Thanks in advance.
Yes. I do. Quite often.
I have written about this in longer form if you want to search it...
But I look at every game as having a bunch of different line / price options. Along the line of what poster Train asked above. I look at ALL of them, and part of my process is to determine which line / price is the best VALUE for that particular game.
So while I post "Pats +2.5" - I do that because that is the PRIMARY line and what people want to see who read these posts. But in actuality, these are the Pats lines available: Pats +3 -128 Pats +2.5 -105 Pats +2 -102 Pats +1.5 +101 Pats +1 +106 Pats ML +125
A big part of what I do is determining which of those lines is the best value for this game. And it is different game to game (and is a semi subjective calculation).
Short answer - yes I bet MLs a lot. I also bet spreads that are off the primary line a lot also. Happy to get in to a longer more detailed discussion on an off day.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by ad1260:
Hey Van, Nice work. Just curious, do you ever play the ML on any/all of your wagers? Particularly your dog plays. Thanks in advance.
Yes. I do. Quite often.
I have written about this in longer form if you want to search it...
But I look at every game as having a bunch of different line / price options. Along the line of what poster Train asked above. I look at ALL of them, and part of my process is to determine which line / price is the best VALUE for that particular game.
So while I post "Pats +2.5" - I do that because that is the PRIMARY line and what people want to see who read these posts. But in actuality, these are the Pats lines available: Pats +3 -128 Pats +2.5 -105 Pats +2 -102 Pats +1.5 +101 Pats +1 +106 Pats ML +125
A big part of what I do is determining which of those lines is the best value for this game. And it is different game to game (and is a semi subjective calculation).
Short answer - yes I bet MLs a lot. I also bet spreads that are off the primary line a lot also. Happy to get in to a longer more detailed discussion on an off day.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term. Which game? Really matters. Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5) Any game. Just curious how often a dog loses by 1 or 2 points in the NFL. Context matters for sure (teams/game total etc)....Like Carolina +2.5 would hold more value with game total of 41 as opposed to if Miami was +2.5 (instead of 4.5) today with a game total of 54. No big deal, just curious where the math bends the curve making the ML more valuable....
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: Thoughts on taking +2.5 even if reduced juice at -105 vs the ML at +120/125ish? Are the overall odds of the dog losing by 1 or 2 or tying worth sticking with the spread in the long run? I know theres a breakdown of how often games end in exact spread ( I think you posted it), just curious if its a wash long term. Which game? Really matters. Today... Took the Pats ML (in addition to +2.5) but the Panthers only on the spread (+2.5) Any game. Just curious how often a dog loses by 1 or 2 points in the NFL. Context matters for sure (teams/game total etc)....Like Carolina +2.5 would hold more value with game total of 41 as opposed to if Miami was +2.5 (instead of 4.5) today with a game total of 54. No big deal, just curious where the math bends the curve making the ML more valuable....
@vanzack Sure we can do that. All the best. His top WR already expressed his opinion about having him on the team before the Trade happened lol. This can't help his stock!!
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474:
@vanzack Sure we can do that. All the best. His top WR already expressed his opinion about having him on the team before the Trade happened lol. This can't help his stock!!
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