NFL Sunday week 8

Playing way more games than I normally do but there's quite a few teams in a scheduling angle that I like, combined with some teams decimated by injuries i want to fade.

Lions -10.5

I don't think the Lions will have a letdown because they still need to keep winning to stay ahead of the Vikes, and anyway the Titans offense is useless, traded away Hopkins (who looks washed anyway), Levis probably won't be back yet, doesn't matter anyway I don't see them keeping pace here as the Lions are scoring 30+ for 3 straight games and last time they were home scored 42. It is actually a sandwich spot for the Lions with GB on deck but I mean, they're not gonna lose this game. If they win and don't cover I'll live with it.

Bengals -2.5

Birds are on their 2nd straight road game after a division win while the Bengals are back home after 2 straight road games. As they have tended to do they started slow this season but now have won 3 of 4 with the loss a close OT game to the Ravens who are quite good. Interestingly they beat the same two teams the Eagles just beat and by similar margins. The Eagles defense looked good against two of the worst offenses and least productive QBs in the NFL but i remember how Cousins and Baker lit them up and think Joe Cool can certainly do the same to get his team to .500 and get back into contention for the division.

Texans -5

I had the Colts last week and despite them eking out the win vs Miami I was very unimpressed. The defense is atrocious, and Mixon ran all over them week 2. Screw the revenge when one team is just clearly better and has both the better offense and defense and is at home they can sweep. AR was a QB terrible pick while the Texans got a good one in Stroud. AR wasn't able to do much vs their defense in the last game and Houston has been good vs the pass all season so far. I would have happily laid 7 or 8 points here so yeah give me that -5.

Dolphins -3.5 @5.6

Yes I still hate the Dolphins coach but the Cardinals are not a good team either, they won on MNF because the Chargers were full on Chargering, couldn't get out of their own way and did their whole no TDs 2nd half thing again just like I predicted they would. Tyreek comes back I think it's kind of a must win to try and turn the season around and facing a team that can't stop the run and has to travel a long way on a short week is just what the doctor ordered. Hopefully boy genius doesn't screw up the 4th downs like he always does, going for it every time and hitting only 14%

Falcons -2.5

Usually I am hesitant to fade teams that lose on MNF especially if they get blown out but it's hard to say if that was a blow out or not, it kinda was but basically most of the Bucs scoring was before Evans got hurt (then they also lost Godwin) and after the Ravens basically thought the game was over. Losing their top 2 guys at WR and now a short week, a humbling loss... This could totally derail the Bucs resurgence. And probably the last thing you want is to face Cousins because he absolutely torched their defense last time they played for 500+ yards. They outgained the Bucs by like 150 yards the game was close because they kept kicking FGs but it will be tough to keep up with Evans and Godwin sidelined.

I also like the Under in this game because I think TB now has to rely on their much improved run game and they did run for a lot of yards in the last matchup. They're gonna try and do that for sure to keep Cousins on the sideline, and if Atlanta keeps relying on Koo to finish drives it's unlikely to crack 60 like last time. So Under 46 for one unit also (and all plays this week are for one so far)

Feel the dawgs bark today loud. 

Evening slate

Chargers -6.5

Saints will get Olave and Hill back but it's not gonna be enough to beat even the Chargers and their woeful offense. Losing Rashid Shaheed is massive, he was their big play guy and they don't get chunk plays in the air without him, so Hill isn't likely to get thise red zone chances he usually does because they will struggle to get down there. I was never a Rattler fan even in college I thought he had a low game IQ and coming home off a frustrating MNF loss, I'm hopeful the Chargers can break out of their 2nd half scoring funk. At least they have the best ppg defense which with what the Saints have left on offense should be good enough to get a double digit win. Saints are firmly on the fade list now even with these guys back they also lost their center and their starting safety, in the NFL it's bad practice to cap off one or even 2 injuries, when the whole team is the walking wounded that's when they tank.

Raiders +9.5

Honestly I think the Raiders are awful but I just wanted to find a dog to bet on. It could finally be the time to buy low sell high between them and KC. There's this perception out there the Chiefs have not only won but covered every game (heard a few ppl say it and post it here too) but it's actually not true, i think they pushed vs the Chargers depending on when you bet it, and they didn't cover vs the Bengals. The Ravens game they were an inch away from it being tied at the end.

I think beating the 9ers again really has reinforced this view of them as unbeatable but the 9ers have issues. They're in their own head with the late game collapses and then they're all banged up, Deebo gets sick right before the game, CMC still gone.

There was a time in the 80s and 90s the SB champs were a horrible bet the first 2 months of the season as the lines were inflated and the public would get buried backing them. I'm just gonna cross my fingers and hope the Chiefs kind of sleepwalk through this one a little bit - their offense is still down from last year and this is their highest spread yet. I think the public will look at the late slate and see some tough games with the Bills and Seahawks and Bears Commies being close spreads, and then your other options are the decimated Saints, Chargers who looked bad on national TV, sure you can fade the Panthers but you have to lay 11 with Denver's offense whereas laying 9.5 with the last undefeated team SB champs vs the hapless Raiders who don't even have Adams now looks a lot more appealing.

And actually within the last hour it's dropped to 9 and now 8.5. i already got on and not sure why it's dipping but I'd probably wait til closer to kickoff now if you want the 9 or 9.5, due to how I think the public will bet.

@NutinButtLove

 Bol today

Adding: Seahawks+3

Long road trip for the Bills who have been on the road a lot already and have Miami on deck. Seahawks pass game should be able to attack the Buffalo secondary and certainly Allen is due for a disaster 'turnover at the goal line' game some time this season, right?

Jesus christ the Texans are fkin retarded and of course the Phins blow it too

Adding: Chicago +1.5

Lowest passer rating allowed, top 5 in yards passing allowed, ypc allowed through the air, Daniels might struggle more than Caleb today