** NFL Thursday: Chicago VS. Miami - Write Up! **

Game : Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Jay Cutler has been playing great football the past 2 games and Miami is banged up heading into Thursday without Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, and (T) Jake Long. With this information, it makes me wonder how is Vegas making the bears under dogs, when they clearly have the advantage with all the injuries in this match up. I think it is going to be hard for the bears to prepare for the dolphins on a short week.

Statistics:

The Bears are ranked 29th in the league in offense (297ypg) with a 21st ranked pass game (202ypg) and ranked 23rd in Rushing (95ypg). The Bears will be up against the Dolphins 8^th ranked defense (314ypg), their 6^th ranked pass rush (203ypg) and their 16th ranked rush defense (110ypg). The Dolphins give up the 13th least amount of points per-game (21.3ppg).  

The Dolphins are ranked 16th overall on offense (344ypg) with a 13th ranked pass game (239ypg) and an 19th ranked ground game (104ypg). They score the 26th least amount of points per-game (19.1ppg). The Dolphins will be up against the Bears fourth ranked defense (301ypg), their 15th ranked pass rush (219ypg) and the NFL’s second best ranked rush defense (82ypg). The Bears give up the second least amount of points per-game (16.2ppg).

Thoughts :

The big issue everyone is speculating about is how much can we expect from QB Tyler Thigpen?

Thigpen started in 11 games 3 seasons ago for the KC Cheifs and hit on 54.8% of his passes in 2008 with 18 touchdowns and 12 picksThe one thing Thigpen does better then Henne and Pennington is using his speed to scramble and avoid sacks. He is a more mobile QB than both Chad’s. Expect QB roll outs, short passes being called for Thigpen.

Miami is at home for the fifth time this season and are 1-3 in those games. One of the reasons I see people betting on the bears is because “ Miami is not good at home”. There losses weren’t to any bad teams as they own losses at home against the Jets, Steelers and Patriots on the season. The Dolphins are coming off their first home win of the season by defeating the Tennessee Titans 29-17 last week as a 1 point home favourite.

Chicago’s QB Jay Cutler has been playing good football the past 2 games and efficient with limited mistakes. However, he has played two teams without much of a pass rush, and Cutler of course plays best when he is comfortable in the pocket. Cutler will be tested Thursday when he goes up against the Dolphins defense who have sacked the opposing QB 23 times this season.  Watch for Cutler to be under pressure the entire game, and forced into mistakes and turnovers as Chicago has the worst ranked NFL line ( Offensive line pass efficiency).

I really don't know what i am going to do with this game.. I mainly like to focus on games that i beleive will make me money. I do not bet for the sake of betting. I am here for one reason and that is to win. I wrote this up to help all you needed some info and wanted to discuss about it. I will look into depth tonight and tommorow. I hope this helps and i wish the best of luck to all of you. If i have this bet locked in, you will know tomorrow and i will be here to discuss in further detail.

~ Striving for success without hard work is like trying to harvest where you haven't planted. ~

-Scal_19-

Nice write up-- I think a short week and trying to prepare for a QB with tape from years ago will TRULY benefit the Dolphins. I like the FINS rather comfortably along with the over. The NFL is all about opportunity and luck. Pigpen got the luck with the start- now he has to jump all over the opportunity-I think he will be up to the challenge!

Dolphins-27

Bears-21 (late TD to make it closer then it really was)

I agree with you that the short week will benefit the bears even though Miami is limited to practice on a short week with Thigpen. Plus it's prime time and Miami is at home , i think it will be a nail biter tonight. I wanna lock Miami but i just need to be sure. I'll keep lookin into this one.

Thanks alot guys. I am just here to produce them wins.

I am sorta leaning Miami but im expecting a 23-20 type of game. I will keep looking into this one and get back to you guys.

Here is another little stat i seen that was pretty interesting

Recent Trends to Consider:    

• Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 11.
• Dolphins are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Bears are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
• Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Over is 4-0-1 in Dolphins last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.
• Bears are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.

Hopefully ill have a pick tonight.

Good luck , feel free to let me know what you guys think. We are all here together and to win.. Gotta get that money and no money comes easy.

Quote Originally Posted by ICEman83:

nice write up..........

Thanks  ICE

well said scal

I'm goin phins and under

good luck to you

Thank you jm, good luck to you as well and hope you cash in

Game : Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Scal Pick : Miami Dolphins

Margin of victory : 3-7 points.

 I am expecting a hard fought battle from the bears but i think on a short week and prime time, Tony Sparano will have the Fins fired up. Miami pulls away and takes it.

Score: Miami 23 - Chicago 20

Good luck to all who bet.

any thoughts on special teams?

I'm hesitant to pick Miami because I feel that Hester has a return td in him...

his yards per return are insane and it's really suprising that he doesn't have more tds this year...

is this enough to sway to a side?

Scal,

Nice write up, nice stats!   Stats aside, Chi is NOT a 7-3 team if they were to win which would place them alongside the top teams in the league.

Miami wins!

GLTA

........exactly !!!!

On Miami as well.

GL

GREAT information !   I like Miami plus the points also.

B O L 

Just don't see alot of points in this one, barring a barrage of special team TD's. 2 good defenses, good pass rushes, an erratic QB on one team and an inexperienced QB on the other team. MIA goes to the Wildcat more than they have this year and coaches play this one close to the vest banking on their defenses to keep it close and make that one deciding play. Small lean to the Bears who are now + 2.5 @ BETJAM. Under 40.

Good Luck!!