YTD (NFL): 25-14-2 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 3-2 ATS)
Last week of September and I think this could be a special one. Actually pretty sick of losing games the way I've been losing, especially in CFB. Thursday night was a push as Brandon Aubrey strangely missed a last seconds kick to cover the game for the Cowboys, his first miss ever from 50+. Strange but true.
Today there are quite a few games that I actually love b/c quite a few of them I think have the wrong side favored. I will start by saying I think the Bengals are truly not very good and I have already written off playing the Carolina Panthers but COMPLETE revenge here for Andy Dalton so do NOT be fooled!!!.. That's my take on that game but here are my plays:
PITTSBURGH (-135)...BIG PLAY!!!: Ok, here is the rationale for "skipping the line". The game opened with the Colts as a 1 point favorite and has now flipped to Pittsburgh -2/2.5. I think that Anthony Richardson is still not completely right but I also think the Colts defense isn't completely right and Pittsburgh's is going to give them a lot of trouble. But here is the bigger picture: Pittsburgh are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games against Indianapolis and are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games against Indianapolis. They are also 8-3 ATS playing on the road against Indianapolis. I just cannot turn my back on that but also don't want to see this game come down to the wire and lose on late kick bc they are now favored. As a Ravens fan, it's hard to think of the Steelers at 4-0 but I think that's actually what's going to happen when the dust settles here!
NEW ORLEANS (+2.5)...BIG PLAY!!!: Firing out the gate b/c some of the same holds true for this game as well. New Orleans is 5-1 SU in their last 6 played in Atlanta and that means it might even be worth buying up that half point. I think the Falcons got "lucky" to beat Philly but I also don't think that the Eagles are very good, mainly due to their inconsistent coach. So I don't put much weight in that victory and without it I'm afraid this spread would be very different. Not sure why people are still doubting the Saints but they wont' be after today,
CHICAGO (-3): Typical NFL type game...the Rams coming off a thrilling upset of one of the top teams in the NFC and now traveling to Chicago to face a Bears team that seems to be down and out a bit after consecutive losses. But Chicago is coming back home to face a Rams team they are 8-3 against both ATS and SU when playing at home. I think the Bears defense is up to the task here though the game might go OVER but it won't be because the Rams are scoring all over the field. I think the Bears get Keenan Allen back and he makes a difference here. I see them victorious here and not scared to drop the FG.
I MIGHT have a play on the Minnesota/GB game upcoming, I know Jordan Love is playing and I think he will work wonders for their scoring even though Malik Willis has been an amazing fill in himself. Aaron Jones will be super motivated in that game and the GB run defense really isn't that great. But for now I have a lot riding on the above 3 games and, tail or fade, good luck to all...
...just some good information, things change yearly but I think the Saints are absolutely a live dog regardless what happens,
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