NFL TODAY THANKSGIVING PLAYS (11/28)

YTD (NFL):  58-45-3 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 11-8 ATS)

HUGE win on MNF with the Ravens.  Sure, Dobbins loss was a part of it but they were winning regardless.  As they will on Sunday as well.

But today is Thanksgiving and so I'll begin by saying Happy Thanksgiving to all that lay their eyes on this post.  It's been a rocky year and I was dragged up to Las Vegas by my fiancé to see some of her family up here.  So very short on time.  My first play below is strictly based on performance in the first half.  Detroit scores an average of 20 points at home in the first half and the Bears?  6.6 points in the 1st half on the road.

Granted, I like what the Bears have done on offense since changing coordinators but those two games were also played at home.  This game will be much faster in the dome and the lions tend to really take it to the Bears.  I do not see Caleb Williams getting his way against a Lions front 7 that still causes problems.  Maybe Swift has a good game in a revenge spot for him?  Not sure, but what I do know is I'm playing:

DETROIT FH (-6.5)

I realize there are some people on the Bears but I think it's fools gold.  I do see a strong trend in the NYG/DAL game that I will be posting shortly.  Just need to get this out and get down to the sports book.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

BOL  on your plays & Happy USA Thanksgiving @LAGameofInches 

@LAGameofInches

 Looking good! Another solid pick! 

Looking like another winner. As predicted this Bears offense is horrible on the road and especially the 1st half. Detroit on the other hand is a first half machine so happy to get out of this an early winner   

The next game has very strong trends to the over. I’ll draft an official play and post when I get back up to the room. Also think that Tyrone Tracy gets a handful of receptions on dump downs so might look at that angle for a player prop. 

Thanks for the pick man!

Nice work LA. Thanks

Adding...

OVER 37 (NYG/DAL):  Being I'm here in LV I think it's interesting to watch the lines move, or not move in this case, when I feel pretty strongly about a particular play.  Other than a trend showing that the OVER is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 between these two teams when played in Dallas and 5 out of the last 5, I think that the Giants offense can't get much worse than it's been.  Of course, most of us realize Daniel Jones is the scapegoat, but this play is also taking into account that Dallas still has playmakers on their end and I see them getting to 24, making it only 13 needed by the Giants, which I believe will happen.  But not in the first half where the Giants have been awful especially on the road.  Further chances are taken when backing Drew Lock but I think Malik Nabers shows up today after the drama of last week.  And for what it's worth, the Giants ARE averaging slightly over 14 points themselves.  Plus, the last two games with Cooper Rush at the helm for Dallas have gone over the number.

I have a potentially big play for the last game but not sure I'll be able to post an in-depth write up given it will be Thanksgiving PST and I'll probably have had a few.  Already started and hoping to head back down to the window to cash my second ticket of the day.  As always, do your own research and tail or fade, good luck to all...

@LAGameofInches

 Thank you Sir !  Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family

Starting to roll. Everything will be dictated on this play though. In Vegas and my last leg of my 4 team parlay (added Gonzaga) at 10x1 rides on this last play. Meaning it will probably lose lol. Joking aside it’s rhe side I like most today:

UNDER 47.5 (MIAMI/GB)…BIG PLAY!!!:The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay. Add to that frigid temperatures and I see a pretty solid under spot I know last week was comparable and it went over but higher number this week and a huge trend. 

Happy thanksgiving to everyone. As always tail or fade good luck to all…

 thank you Sir LA

Nice work so far. Gl on the sweep

thanka been a great day. Solid year so far. Had to adjust for a week but otherwise have had another great season in NFL. Let’s get this last one and then another couple over the weekend. 

Tailed them all today!  Lfg nice hits my man!