YTD (NFL): 54-39-3 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 9-6 ATS)
Posting this one early. Lost a BIG PLAY on MNF so took a 2 units loss, apologies for that. Plenty of points scored but ironically not in the FH as field position really cost us. Will be a different story tonight as my beloved Ravens play. I am over 80% on Ravens games though I don't play them weekly but I LOVE this spot for them.
Neither the Ravens defense nor that of Cincinnati is going to get right overnight. Both teams are quite familiar with one another, so it's hard to get behind a game line that has shot up over 3 points. Especially since the Bengals are 5-2 ATS when playing in Baltimore, though the Ravens are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 against Cincy. So might get close to the 6 point line and I don't want to chance it.
The Bengals, without Tee Higgins, are losing a bit against the biggest weakness of the Ravens, which is their secondary. Baltimore is 8-1 on the over this year and the Bengals are 6-3. The Ravens have also gone OVER this 52.5 point mark in four of their last five, while the Bengals have gone OVER in five of their last seven. Pretty solid stats considering I had already liked the over on the FG total.
When you start to break down the first half, with a total set at an oddly high 26.5, I see an advantage. Both teams are going to want to come out and get ahead, the 27 points would mean 3 TD's and 2 FG's, and both teams have solid FG kickers and are really good in the red zone. But the Ravens possess big play ability this year and the Cincinnati defense has given up quite a few long plays, which obviously helps the over. Tonight, I'm going back to the well but this time with a team I know all too well and a matchup I have consistently been able to monetize:
OVER 26.5 FH (CIN/BAL)...BIG PLAY!!!: If I had a HUGE PLAY it would be made here. The Ravens average 16 points in the FH, good for 3rd in the NFL, and the Bengals are at 12, good for 15th, which is not bad. When you add both of those numbers you get 28, which is already higher than the current FH total. BUT...when you dig more closely, the Ravens are averaging about 18 points at HOME (17.8 to be exact) and the Bengals are up to ~13 points (12.8 to be exact). Quick math there paints a more realistic picture of the first half total at 31 points, quite a bit higher than the 26.5 points currently being offered. Play this with confidence. I know this was similar reasoning to MNF FH total but the teams and matchup is way different as this a familiar conference matchup.
I'm tempted to also play the FG over but I'm cognizant that the Ravens might just keep piling it on the Bengals. I do think the Ravens get closer to 35 tonight in what should be an active and fun game to watch. I know this is being posted super early but just sharing for anyone that has interest b/c I do see this as a very very strong play.
I might be back later for an update but I'm locked and loaded here. Keep comments positive, do your own research as well and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all.
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