YTD (NFL): 67-48-5 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 13-9 ATS)
I've gone 10-3-2 ATS in the past 15 plays and no point in waiting on this I placed it two days ago and made mention of it in my other thread. I'm also being dragged to the Andrea Bocelli concert tonight though I'm sure it will be awesome. So I want to post this early in case anyone wants to do their research and/or tail. Sunday would have been gargantuan for me had I won my Ravens ML play in my parlays, which obviously I don't post. They beat themselves and it never even came down to coaching as Justin Tucker, who has been the difference between winning and losing for years in a Ravens jersey, just didn't get it done. And Lamar was correct, they shouldn't even be in all those FG situations but credit Philly, they have the defense and Barkley which will allow them to progress far imo. The coaching on the other hand could be their determinant.
But we are talking about tonights game and for this game I have a big play which I seem to see very clearly at the moment. Detroit is playing at home where they are not only close to unbeatable, but just had a scare against the Bears that they will not want to replicate. In comes Green Bay, a much better coached team and a much better overall team. I think that Josh Jacobs will be able to run against the Lions and they will want to keep feeding him to keep the Lions offense off the field.
The coaches are both very good, so there is no advantage I see there in the latter stages of the game. But, at home, the Lions average a whopping 19.3 points in the first half compared to the Packers average of 13.8 FH points on the road. Since the NFL isn't played with decimals, I will take 19 for the Lions and subtract the 14 for the Packers and I get 5, which is TWICE as high as the current FH line.
Moreover, the Loins are the BEST FH TEAM going 10-2 ATS in the FH this season, which the Packers are a respectable 7-5 ATS in the FH this season. Another early advantage to the Lions. Oh, and they are playing on national television where they have been almost unbeatable outside of the NFC Championship game last year.
I have no doubt that the Packers will come in ready to play. Lastly, the Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay. So I do expect a Lions win here. But there is a serious advantage to Detroit in the FH and with the line a tick under a FG, I'm all over this.
DETROIT FH (-2.5)...BIG PLAY!!!
There are lots of handicappers in here but I put time to do the research and post the analysis as to why. Be careful when people only have LARGE plays or GOY b/c there's no way everything is that attractive to a handicapper. I've been doing this successfully for years and posting it to help the forum so please keep comments positive. Still no idea why I get harassed but so it goes on this site. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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