NFL Record -1.0 units
Sunday:
Steelers +2.5 (2 units)
Bucs +5 (2 units)
Giants +3.25 (2 units)
Seahawks -4.5 (1.5 units)
Pats +4 (1.5 units)
Raiders +3.25 (1 unit)
Browns +2 (1 unit)
Happy to discuss any and all. Probably wont get back to the thread until early tomorrow, but I will get back.
GL all
@vanzack
One question from me(Raiders@Broncos)-Which of these statements do you agree with?
1. You trust Jimmy G to play good enough against Denver's defense.
2.You don't believe Russell Wilson will play well against the Raider's defense.
3.Neither of these are a major factor in your pick.
For me it's a stay away. I can't see an angle here with these two teams both being mediocre at best in so many areas. I guess I'm curious how it got on your card.
Getting a FG+ is a big factor. New coach, terrible QB who shows no signs of getting better - mostly a play against the Broncos here. Jimmy G can manage a game, and the Raiders run should work well enough.
Like the Raiders.... Tampa is a play against the Vikings, getting a lot of points. I have the Vikings in the lowest 3rd of NFL overall power rankings entering the season - last year was simply an anomaly. They return to the mean this year - and I bet against them until it catches up in the betting lines.
I post the best current widely available line. When the line is heavy juice on one number some places, and +juice on another number other places, I post .25.
For instance - the Raiders. They are either +3.5 -115, or +3 +108 right now. I could just post +3.5, but that is really not fair to the current line - so I post 3.25 which means half of my wager is on +3 and half is on 3.5 for recordkeeping purposes. Of course - I hope everyone who liked the raiders got +4 or +3.5, but if you were betting now those numbers are gone.
GL
1) you picked NOR in contests but not betting them here. any reason for the difference/change? less confidence now in the Saints?
2) why NE? I dont hate it but do you expect their defense to keep them in it or the offense to keep pace with the Eagles offense? I cant advocate a bet on the Eagles here laying points on the road in week 1, I'm trying to get a view of why the Pats are a popular pick today
good luck!
Actually, at the time I posted this last night the line was 3. I just got a flat -2.5, so I bet 1 unit. Not going to put it in my WL total, but at 2.5 I do have it as a bet.
One thing to note.... There is a lot of game theory that I try to employ in the contests. I thought that the Titans would be a heavy selected team in the contest, and I like the Saints - so I took them - especially because I get a half point if it lands on 3. So some non-wager game theory stuff comes in to play in the contests that doesnt in real life.
GL
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win: @vanzack One question from me(Raiders@Broncos)-Which of these statements do you agree with? 1. You trust Jimmy G to play good enough against Denver's defense. 2.You don't believe Russell Wilson will play well against the Raider's defense. 3.Neither of these are a major factor in your pick. For me it's a stay away. I can't see an angle here with these two teams both being mediocre at best in so many areas. I guess I'm curious how it got on your card. Getting a FG+ is a big factor. New coach, terrible QB who shows no signs of getting better - mostly a play against the Broncos here. Jimmy G can manage a game, and the Raiders run should work well enough.
This is the only play I'll have to disagree with you on. Usually when I do I get schooled though 
. I'm not high on Jimmy G so I'll have to see it to believe it.
Couldn't agree more with the Vikings' comments. TB will be my biggest play of the week. Vikings lost Dalvin Cook and should have one of the worst defenses in the league this year. Even Brian Flores' scheme won't help the fact that they have no talent. Thanks for response hit'em hard this week!
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