I haven't posted here in like 3 years, but I've decided to come back. Here's my picks for this week with write-ups. Let's make money.
My straight bets will be between 5-10 units.
My teasers will be between 2-3 units.
My parlays will be 1 unit.
Broncos +3.5 (5 units)
Classic trap game here. I expect a 7-8 win season in Denver, but this is a great spot for them at home on primetime to open up the new season as defending SB champs. Broncos' 7th round sophomore QB Trevor Siemian knows how to run Kubiak's offense the way it's intended to be run, which means that Denver will have a very good running game. Kubiak has helped produce potent ground games wherever he's gone. The only reason why they didn't have one last year was because he had to accommodate to Peyton's strengths. Now that they have a QB who can play under center, look for them to gash teams on the ground. Carolina is still a SB contender, but Denver's D is too good to fade when they're given points at home. This is going to be a low-scoring, physical game. I'll take the home dog.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I haven't posted here in like 3 years, but I've decided to come back. Here's my picks for this week with write-ups. Let's make money.
My straight bets will be between 5-10 units.
My teasers will be between 2-3 units.
My parlays will be 1 unit.
Broncos +3.5 (5 units)
Classic trap game here. I expect a 7-8 win season in Denver, but this is a great spot for them at home on primetime to open up the new season as defending SB champs. Broncos' 7th round sophomore QB Trevor Siemian knows how to run Kubiak's offense the way it's intended to be run, which means that Denver will have a very good running game. Kubiak has helped produce potent ground games wherever he's gone. The only reason why they didn't have one last year was because he had to accommodate to Peyton's strengths. Now that they have a QB who can play under center, look for them to gash teams on the ground. Carolina is still a SB contender, but Denver's D is too good to fade when they're given points at home. This is going to be a low-scoring, physical game. I'll take the home dog.
I hate RG3 now but I'm lazy to change the account so I'll just leave the irrelevant name.
Ravens -3 (10 units)
One of my two favourite picks of the week. The Ravens had a disappointing 5-11 season a year ago, but they were decimated by injuries and this is a very good coaching staff that will have this team bouncing back in 2016. Rookie OT Ronnie Stanley is looking like a potential franchise tackle which will help solidify this line. WR Mike Wallace finally has a QB that suits his talents, as Flacco throws a far superior deep ball than Tannehill and Bridgewater. Look for him to bounce back. The Ravens had a ton of close losses last year. 9 out of their 11 losses were by 8 points or fewer. Their only two blowouts came when Flacco was injured. This is a good team that I like to win the division. On the other hand, the Bills are pretty banged up right now, without notable contributors on defense like DT Marcell Dareus. This is a low spread for a team that's been very good at home under John Harbaugh. Love this one.
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I hate RG3 now but I'm lazy to change the account so I'll just leave the irrelevant name.
Ravens -3 (10 units)
One of my two favourite picks of the week. The Ravens had a disappointing 5-11 season a year ago, but they were decimated by injuries and this is a very good coaching staff that will have this team bouncing back in 2016. Rookie OT Ronnie Stanley is looking like a potential franchise tackle which will help solidify this line. WR Mike Wallace finally has a QB that suits his talents, as Flacco throws a far superior deep ball than Tannehill and Bridgewater. Look for him to bounce back. The Ravens had a ton of close losses last year. 9 out of their 11 losses were by 8 points or fewer. Their only two blowouts came when Flacco was injured. This is a good team that I like to win the division. On the other hand, the Bills are pretty banged up right now, without notable contributors on defense like DT Marcell Dareus. This is a low spread for a team that's been very good at home under John Harbaugh. Love this one.
The Ravens are kinda like the Giants. They have a good year, then a bad one , then a good one. I think they will be improved, and if they can sneak a win or two from Pittsburgh they are my dark horse to win the division.
That beating said, they should beat the Bills by 3. I have -3 as a push, and would tease it down a half point if I could.
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The Ravens are kinda like the Giants. They have a good year, then a bad one , then a good one. I think they will be improved, and if they can sneak a win or two from Pittsburgh they are my dark horse to win the division.
That beating said, they should beat the Bills by 3. I have -3 as a push, and would tease it down a half point if I could.
The Chargers are very similar to the Ravens in the sense that injuries derailed their season in 2015. The Bolts were missing key players such as WR Keenan Allen and LT King Dunlap for much of the season. Of their 12 losses last year, 9 were within 8 points. They added WR Travis Benjamin, who is a solid deep threat. QB Philip Rivers is still one of the best in the NFL. RB Melvin Gordon looked like a different player this summer and will bounce back in a big way. This team is just a season removed from 9-7. They're my darkhorse pick to win this division. On the other hand, the Chiefs, while still a solid team, have historically done poorly as TD+ favourites. Last year they were 1-4 ATS when favoured by 7 or more. In a division game, I think San D keeps it close and can easily win outright.
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Chargers +7 (10 units)
The Chargers are very similar to the Ravens in the sense that injuries derailed their season in 2015. The Bolts were missing key players such as WR Keenan Allen and LT King Dunlap for much of the season. Of their 12 losses last year, 9 were within 8 points. They added WR Travis Benjamin, who is a solid deep threat. QB Philip Rivers is still one of the best in the NFL. RB Melvin Gordon looked like a different player this summer and will bounce back in a big way. This team is just a season removed from 9-7. They're my darkhorse pick to win this division. On the other hand, the Chiefs, while still a solid team, have historically done poorly as TD+ favourites. Last year they were 1-4 ATS when favoured by 7 or more. In a division game, I think San D keeps it close and can easily win outright.
These were leans that didn't make the cut to be straight bets.
Eagles -4
The Eagles will start rookie QB Carson Wentz, but this Browns D projects to be one of the worst in football. Wentz starts off his career with a very easy matchup. The Eagles will win games based on their defense. Jim Schwartz will have that front seven swarming QBs. The Browns o-line has looked terrible this summer, and RG3 has a propensity for taking sacks. Eagles take care of business here.
Lions +3.5
The Colts already have a bad defense, and will be missing key players like number 1 corner Vontae Davis. The Lions were very good down the stretch a year ago. WR Marvin Jones was an excellent pickup and will help offset the loss of Megatron. This will be a shootout that the Lions can easily take outright.
Giants PK
The Giants made some huge additions to their defense, including stud d-lineman Olivier Vernon and a good corner in Janoris Jenkins. Their offense is also improved with rookie WR Sterling Shephard. This is mostly a fade of 4th-round rookie QB Dak Prescott.
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Parlay (1 unit to win 6 units)
These were leans that didn't make the cut to be straight bets.
Eagles -4
The Eagles will start rookie QB Carson Wentz, but this Browns D projects to be one of the worst in football. Wentz starts off his career with a very easy matchup. The Eagles will win games based on their defense. Jim Schwartz will have that front seven swarming QBs. The Browns o-line has looked terrible this summer, and RG3 has a propensity for taking sacks. Eagles take care of business here.
Lions +3.5
The Colts already have a bad defense, and will be missing key players like number 1 corner Vontae Davis. The Lions were very good down the stretch a year ago. WR Marvin Jones was an excellent pickup and will help offset the loss of Megatron. This will be a shootout that the Lions can easily take outright.
Giants PK
The Giants made some huge additions to their defense, including stud d-lineman Olivier Vernon and a good corner in Janoris Jenkins. Their offense is also improved with rookie WR Sterling Shephard. This is mostly a fade of 4th-round rookie QB Dak Prescott.
Bought half a point here. The Bucs are going to be a much improved team this season. QB Jameis Winston showed some flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, and the jump from Year 1 to 2 is always significant for good young players. Tampa has a ton of playmakers on offense with guys like WR Mike Evans, VJax, RB Doug Martin and Charles Sims. They have continuity on offense with former OC Dirk Koetter now the head coach. Rookie CB Vernon Hargreaves is going to be a stud and this defense looked great in preseason. The Falcons are not a good football team. No pass rush and a declining Matt Ryan. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Bucs swept this Atlanta team last season and will get it done on Sunday.
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Adding one more play:
Bucs +3 -135 (5 units)
Bought half a point here. The Bucs are going to be a much improved team this season. QB Jameis Winston showed some flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, and the jump from Year 1 to 2 is always significant for good young players. Tampa has a ton of playmakers on offense with guys like WR Mike Evans, VJax, RB Doug Martin and Charles Sims. They have continuity on offense with former OC Dirk Koetter now the head coach. Rookie CB Vernon Hargreaves is going to be a stud and this defense looked great in preseason. The Falcons are not a good football team. No pass rush and a declining Matt Ryan. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Bucs swept this Atlanta team last season and will get it done on Sunday.
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