Posted:
#1
NFL Record Breakdown
Faves: 44-22
Dogs: 14-6
O/U: 3-1
NFL YTD Total: 61-29
Last week was great outside of Tennessee
not showing up in Indy and the Chargers blowing their halftime lead. No
time for the longer writeups due to Thanksgiving prep, just some brief notes.
Have a safe holiday everyone and GOOD LUCK.
Bears ML -130 1H and -2.5 -125 Game (2 bets):
Despite the short week, Chase Daniel starting, and Thanksgiving travel,
I'm going to stick with the Bears here because of their better defense
and running game. Daniel is a capable backup and I think the team has
really begun to gel and buy into what Nagy is doing scheme wise. WR
Jones is doubtful and RB Johnson is out for Lions, two big weapons for
them, so that levels the playing field some. Panthers basically gave their game away against the Lions which is
keeping this line reasonable.
Cowboys -3.5 -125 1H and -6 -130 Game (2 bets):
This spot heavily favors Dallas scheduling wise and with the loss of
Alex Smith, though McCoy is generally a solid backup. Skins offense is
very vanilla without much big play potential, so Cowboys won't have to
overcompensate defensively against the run or pass which should create
enough stops and field position gains if it turns into a defensive struggle. Skins defense
is pretty solid but I think this line appears high because it's trying
to invite Skins money.
Saints -7 -120 1H and -11 -123 Game (2 bets): Have to keep rolling with the Saints and fade the Falcons at the Superdome on Thanksgiving night. They just
struggled offensively at home against Cowboys and Saints defense is
rapidly improving. Saints getting some WR help back and offense should
feast on Atlanta defense. Just like the Skins/Cowboys game, line is high
trying to invite Falcons money due to Thanksgiving generally being a
huge edge to home teams.
Panthers -2.5 1H and -3 -120 Game (2 bets):
Spot and line value play. Seahawks different team on road while
Panthers 5-0 at home and coming off B2B road losses. Long trip for
Seattle here after beating Packers in a game they should've lost. I do like some of the youth development and fight Seattle has shown after a lot of early season drama, but I
expect Carolina to put in a full consistent effort this week to get back
into the win column.
Buccaneers -1.5 1H and -2.5 -135 Game (2 bets):
Primarily a fade of 49ers on long road trip regardless if it's Mullens
or Beathard at QB. Winston back starting at QB should be a positive here replacing Fitz's horrible turnovers and Winston gets full week of first team reps. Bucs have lost 4 in a row, but 3
were on road and 49ers 0-5 on road so this is winnable. Will trust more
consistent Bucs offense here on short number.
Ravens -6.5 -130 1H and -10 -120 Game (2 bets):
Not sure if it'll be Jackson or Flacco at QB, but either should get the
job done here. Ravens with a lot more motivation to win while Raiders
look to get back on their losing track after a default win against
equally bad Cardinals. Raiders getting more banged up at WR and RB as well, plus Harbaugh needs to put together a convincing win to turn down the heat some.
Chargers -7 1H and -12 Game (2 bets):
Chargers coming off blown game against Broncos should put in full
effort here against poor Cardinals. Chargers defense is solid and should
get lots of stops to create shorter fields for dangerous offense, plus will
likely create a couple turnovers off Rosen and company. Cards defense isn't bad, but are on
the field way too often and will get worn down here.
Vikings -2.5 1H and -3 -115 Game (2 bets):
Tough spot for Packers after losing in Seattle where they should've won
and now catching Vikings back at home after their tough loss against
Bears where they at least fought back. Packers now 0-5 on road and just
not doing the small things to win the close ones. Vikings much better at
home and the more consistent team here on both sides of ball, will ride them on
the short number.
0
indie
Hot Forum Topics
