NFL WEEK 13..........................2024

Ravens -2.5 (-120) over Eagles --- 1.2 units

BF fade on the Eagles. They are now playing on an unsustainable level of play.

Grabbing this line now, it appears it's going up to 3.

Good luck Claw.  

Agree, GL 

Wait, Saquon's level of play is unsustainable? :)

@theclaw

 BOL this week 

CLAW 

 theclaw

@D-Town..........

 @undermysac..........

 @garbagetime.........

 @@sportschat..........

 @Fuse.............

 @Chauster......

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-12-quick-reads-saquons-schedule

Maybe it's not?

Lions off a big blowout 52-6 game and a 24-6 game.

52 pts is the most pts Lions scored all year to this point. 6 pts given up is the fewest pts Li9ns given up all year and they did that in back to back games.

It is not sustainable to continue to score your most pts while at the same time give up your fewest pts.

Lions are more into regressi9n but don't officially fit my formula but I could make a case to fade them.

There is also a trend of teams giving up less then 7 in back to back games to fade these teams regardless of how many pts they scored or how much they won the game by.

Now we have team team won both games by 18 pts or more with one being a monster blowout by a ridiculous  46 pts and a monster number of pts scored in one of the past 2 games.

And even more is if you look at the box score of the 52-6 win there is no possibility that box scores matches a 52-6 rout.

There's alot to like about fading the Lions this week.

I think the play is on Da Bears but I'll  likely pass on the game.

We can see some teams completely reversed course 2cd half of season

Colts were 7-1 ATS and the talk of many on you tube but 2cd half they are 1-3 ATS. 

Panthers did the same but were 1-7 ATS and are 3-0 ATS 2cd half.

Just crazy how some teams will reverse their 1st half exactly after 8 games. Some teams may be off by a game or 2. 

Titans maybe are ready to reverse course, we'll  see and maybe Boys. But I think Boys won more because of regression not because they will play better now.

Titans have played much better then the final scores in many of their games. They can't  seem to score relative to their play on the field.

Not really sure what this means as I never paid much attention to this. These are spots I can learn from and possibly uncover another method.

I'll be keeping an eye on Titans each week. Generally this evens out. A team under scores their play on the field then at some point they will over score their play on the field. 

Giants +4 (-120) over Boys --- 1.2 units

BF play on team.

Only 2 plays this week.

No plays on the other system.

This is the basis of my regression model, got to disagree with it is just crazy how some teams reverse their form.Regression is what Vegas

depends on to correct runaway auto betting on streaking outcomes.If you research how teams fare at the end of the season with respect to

their ATS records for sides and totals and go back 5 years, a  pattern emerges and with teaser insurance and proper screening...VIOLA, over 60%

on over 400 plays thusfar with juice between -105 and -123

btw claw, I have BALT as the most likely team this week to reverse their 9-2 OVER tendancy

good luck with your plays and imo  you were more right than wrong on HOUSTON.

I would still make the wagers but at a reduced amount. See ya at the cashier's window.

I saw online someone  saying FO's DVOA had Lions ranked  3rd best team since 1979.

They have 2007 Pats 1st with 91 Skins 2cd or maybe Skins 1st, I though they said Skins 2cd but not 100% sure.

I ran my PR I and Lions do rank amoung the best teams ever but not close to the top 3. To be amoung the best is rated over 15.

I have 91 Skins and 85 Bears the top 2 best teams pretty closely matched at over 18.

With I think 89 49ers 3rd at over 17.

Lions are over 16.

I'm  not really sure the other teams could be above the Lions.

Lions only rate a bit below 12 in PR II. To be considered just a good no. 1 ranked team in PR II a team needs to be above 12.

Again to be amoung the best teams in PR II a team needs to be above a 15 rating.

I'd have to check all the teams.

Possible I'd have 92 Dallas above the Lions, 2013 Seahawks, 2002 Bucs and maybe 2000 Ravens.

Even 1996 Packers. I don't think 1998 Denver would be above them not sure 84 49ers.

I'd disagree that Lions are the 3rd best since 1979 at this point. Maybe if the elavate their game from here but I think it is more likely they will fall off some before end of the season. 

But I do agree Lions are no doubt the best team and very likely SB winner.

Think about this. It seems everybody knows the Lions are the best team now and then we have guys pointing out online that FO's has them 3rd best since 1979.

Sounds like a peak and very possibly a big surprise could be coming thanksgiving day. 

Would Da Bears SU surprise people sold on this team as a monster ?

Crazier things have happened. 

I will pass on the game but just saying don't be surprised if the Lions under-perform this week.

I think if you actually believed what you said about the Bears you’d put money on them. You obviously don’t, so let’s not lead bettors stray. Crazier things have happened, but nobody is as crazy as Dan Campbell when it comes to destroying his opponents. And that kind of crazy, you can bet on. 

@theclaw

 I think the loss to Minnesota was deflating and took the life right out of the bears 

I think the Bears have suffered deflating loss after deflating loss all year, and over several years, but this one wasn't one of those games. They stayed with the Vikings just enough that they managed an incredible comeback late, and the OT wasn't a heartbreak. It wasn't like they lost on a last-second hail mary...again.

I don't think you are in position to tell me what I believe. Honestly, you don't have a clue what I believe.

Making predictions based on thinking you know what another person believes is silly.

Yes possibly, but those are the kind of thoughts create big surprises ..................

By crazy what I meant was how the regression begins exactly at the half season and does this year after year.

I understand teams regressing but to happen exactly at the half-way point ?

I looked at Texans schedule and the Colts, it would not be reaching to much to say the Colts could  win this division.

Colts have a group of cupcakes while Texans have KC, Ravens and another tough opp. They could lose all 3 of those games but 2 of the 3 are at home so maybe they get 1.

That loss to the Titans might just come-back to bite the Texans. That was a very bad loss.

Even if they win division they'll  likely be the lowest seeded division winner which means they will play the best WC team.

Could be Steelers or Ravens whichever team does not win division.

I can't see the Texans beating either of those teams in the WC round.

I can imagine a scenario in which the Colts win out and tie the Texans at 10-7, but Houston beat them twice this season. And winning out means winning at Denver, their toughest matchup remaining. If they don't win out, Texans just need two wins for the division.

@theclaw

 I saw online someone  saying FO's DVOA had Lions ranked  3rd best team since 1979.

Possibly.....  but last year's Ravens team finished the year as the 2nd highest rated dvoa team in history and we saw how that worked out for them.  If I remember correctly, I posted the all time top 10 last year when discussing that Ravens team and I think maybe only half of the list were teams that went on to win SB.  

Always like to gauge your PRI and PRII with these lists