NFL WEEK 15 ...........................2024

Colts +4 over Broncos

This play based on my new regression method with Broncos over -22 and a mismatch over -22.

Broncos due some regression here. 2 weeks ago this method did have Browns over Broncos and took 2 pick 6's to beat Browns. A little fluky for sure. 

Jamie's is a TO machine but even for him it'd be low probability to have 2 in 1 game.

I won't take action only posting plays on this new method.

@theclaw

 Any leans on Lions/Bills..?

I will have 2 BF plays this week.

2 plays over + or - 22 and 2 mismatched over 22

And a play on my new BF II method which doesn't  come up very often.

0-1-1 on Posted plays but 3-0 early in the season when I discovered the method.

1 play on Wash with my other system 14-10 ATS after going 1-1 ATS this past week when Boys lost on a brutal play and winning with Steelers.

I'll wait to try and get -7 or less before posting the play.

My new method over 22 is 3-2 ATS past 2 weeks

Mismatchs over 22 are 4-2 ATS past 2 weeks.

I'll catch up with last weeks results later tonight or tomorrow  morning. 

It was a very good week for sure.

My new regression  method I not sure what the parameters should be as of now.

But teams with a mismatch of 17 to 21.9 are 5-2 ATS past 2 weeks.

Over 22 mismatch is 4-2 ATS, pretty strong start for teams over 17 at 9-4 ATS.

LIONS by 19 over Bills.

Lions more due to bounce back here but they do have alot of injuries  and to some degree those injuries could be responsible for the reason they look like a team due to bounce back as they haven't played as well recently.

@theclaw

 Thanks for the input....leaning Lions as well....Great info 

Did you start tracking the new method at the beginning of the year, or did it need some data before it started?

Thanks in advance 

@theclaw

 good luck developing your regression models. Imho, regression has a lot of promise and is the cornerstone of my approach. Contrarian and takes advantage of recency bias which single handedly destroys players bankrolls especialy those with no discipline.

Colts no cover win vs Pats won by 1 point @ pats now rested but denver is far better colts QB  richarson is an accident waitbng to happen  opssssssssss bad trend on denver

2 of em 0-5 after MNF but they are rested however 1-12 before chargers nope 2-4 they drilld raiders before chargers 37-18

@theclaw

 Good luck bro 

Just starting tracking every game past 2 weeks. But I have broke-down many games and it seems like a good regression method.

I've been working on it past couple of years but didn't really have a good concept of how to use it.

It does take time before I can use it. Maybe 2cd half of year only . That part will take time to figure-out.

My new BF II I have broken-down over many years and it is off the hook incredible. Didn't lose a game last season but it doesn't  come up alot.

Works very well early in the season. Like I said 3-0 ATS this season early on. I have check many seasons early on, like over 10 seasons and it is insanely good.

Lions are the better team, no doubt about that but not sure how the injuries will affect them. Not sure when players will be back either. 

Exactly, regression  is real, it happens. We just saw that with the Eagles who easily could have lost SU.

I agree with what you are saying but there is regression  to the mean. No team is as good or bad as they look.

Finding the right time for a team to regress is the tricky part.

Other system .............14-10

1 play this week ...

Wash -7 (-120) over Saints

My new regression  method using mismatch.....

17 to 21.9 is 5-2 ATS

22 and over is 4-2 ATS

PAST 2 weeks

Wash by 20 over Saints

This method supports my other system.

Not planning on taking any action only posting the plays.

New mismatch method........

4 plays this week 17 to 21.9 ........

Wash -7 over Saints by 20

Chargers -3 over Bucs by 20.4

Lions -1.5 over Bills by 19

Bears +7 over Vikings by 20.6

2 games over 22 .......

Colts +4 over Broncos ...already posted

Falcons -4.5 over Raiders by 34.7, I'd wait out this line see if it drops to 4.

Last week 9ers over Bears was the biggest mismatch I've seen but now Falcons over-take that game and become the largest.

Good luck this week.

I took IND for one unit.  I found a query that is a whopping 150-71-3 ATS.  Unfortunately it has lost the last four, so maybe the query itself is in regression.

Always a quandry when recent form is opposite to the trend. For me the recent form over rides the trend................gl

@Fuse..........

@DogbiteWilliams...........

Sweet trend. ............  Broncos playing  on too high a level according to my new regression  method.

Combined with this looks very good.

Is only 4 straight losses enough to over-ride a trend ?

Guys on you tube talking about Steelers being +5 VS Eagles saying how could they be getting that many points.

They said line seems fishy. 

I don't think they understand Steelers need to beat Ravens next week to win the division. They could lose the remaining  3 other games.

Even if they beat the Eagles and then lose to Ravens they still need to win at least 1 other game just to tie the Ravens assuming  the Ravens win out which is very likely they will.

I think Ravens hold the tiebreaker since head to head would be 1-1. So division record is next tiebreaker. Steelers losing gives them 3 losses to Ravens 2.

@theclaw

 So is Eagles -5 the play?....was leaning Steelers