NFL Week 16 Christmas Eve Saturday....

thanks buddy

Nice card van 

@mak104 

 #12

 me too!

If I bet them, there are definitely reasons.

In this case - I have "mad method".

In order to put out a fair line that averages to -105 for American bettors (Bookmaker, Lowvig, Land Based), I post a line that is sometimes split.

In the case of -3.25, that means that I could just post -3, but because it is -120, and -3.5 is +105, they average to a line that is close to -105.  So that means half the wager goes on -3, and the other half on -3.5.

Honestly - I think most NFL bettors would do well to adopt this kind of thinking - because I would say 90% of bettors pay the juice and only lay -3, and if you are on the other side pay the juice and take +3.5.  

Titans....  Should be very low scoring.  Houston is just ridiculously bad on offense, and I have their team total at 11.5.  I know the injuries, I know Tannyhill - but the dropoff to Willis isn't that big - and the Titans should score in the 20's.

Falcons second week in row on the road - dead team - with Ridder at QB who I watched every throw last week - looks like major turnover potential against a defense that will be able to get to him consistently with 4 man rush.  Ravens #1 in NFL against run in trailing 6 weeks - so if the Falcons cant run - I look for all kinds of problems for them.  Ravens defense covers this game - similar to the Titans above.

GL

Between those two - I would take the Titans.  They are a 3.25 favorite, vs a 2.75 dog.  Cant ignore that.

Thanks everyone else - too many to list individually - and all my best to you and yours for the Holidays!!

What a great day to have NFL!

Card looks good 

Good luck 

@vanzack

 good luck today 

VAN 

The Bears injuries going into this one are many.

MLB Jack Sanborn since taking Roquon Smith's spot has quietly averaged 10.8 tackles pg. He went out early in the 2Q of the Philly game where he had 5 tackles. He was well on pace for 12+.

Bears #1 CB Jaylon Johnson just went on IR. Their starting NB Kindle Vildor just went on IR. Starting Safety Eddie Jackson hit the IR 3 games ago.

With running a 4-3 defense, the Bears are dressing only 8 d linemen. This unit has been the worst in the nfl this year, whether it's stopping the run or pass rushing. 

They are dressing only 5 linebackers as well, having a minimum of 6 is ideal, if not more.

The Bears best O lineman, RG Tevin Jenkins is doubtful. Starting LG Cody Whitehair is doubtful. 

#1 WR Darnell Mooney went on IR 3 weeks ago. #2 WR Equanimeous St Brown is out. WR Chase Claypool is out. They are dressing only 5 WR's. 

With the wind as such, we can assume missing these wr's isn't much of a big deal. Backup TE(the run blocker) Trevon Wesco is out.

The only healthy weapons that matter for the Bears, are Justin Fields, RB David Montgomery and RB Khalil Herbert, who's back for the first time in 3 to 4 weeks.

Not dissing your pick, nor am I having the strongest opinions on this game, just passing along some info.

I hope the Bears lose by 7 at most for ya 

Van, thank you for taking the time to post and share your wisdom. 

wishing you and your loved ones all the best in health, wealth, love, and happiness.

Cheers to a  great weekend and a happy prosperous New Year. 

@vanzack

 Have a great Christmas Van and GL to you and your family...

@unitpalooza.  oh and Merry Christmas.   lol

bump

KC cover - 10 today ?

I believe they will cover a dd spread today

van thoughts arrowhead tough place

sea has issues

Vikings are such a fraud.  Cant wait until they are favored in the playoffs to bet against them.

Good call on the Bills / Bears.

@vanzack

 It would of been better if I bet the game.

Nice day your having, happy holidays 

@Ethiopia

 How did that work out for you?

NFL Season Posted Record +38.5 units

SNF - STEELERS -2 (2.5 units)

GL all

@vanzack

Happy holidays van 

Hey van, have a very Merry Christmas.  One of the few Class Acts on this site.