Posted:
#1
YTD: 47-34 ATS
I was originally going to take this week off as the last two weeks usually bite me but I like these two enough to get involved:
Tennessee -4
I'm usually jumping the gun to fade a bad team laying more than a FG but I'm going the other way here.
I had Jacksonville last week and they played their Super Bowl against the Pats. Every player played their balls off on both sides of the ball. The sideline was exceptionally fired up after every big play. Unfortunately the Jags still managed to find a way to lose. They even had two cracks late to tie the game but threw two picks in the endzone, the last one coming on the last play of the game. Now I think there is going to be a hangover this week. The reality sits in that they gave it a great go last week against a giant but now at 2-13, beat up as all hell, and on the road I think they roll over with the finish line to a miserable season finally in sight. This team has 21 players on IR and just lost their best offensive player in Shorts this week. The season has been an epic disaster and they just emptied the tank last week.
The Titans may have appeared to pack it in as well but there are several factors at play here. First of all they really embarrassed themselves last week. The owner reportedly quit watching the game, and the Titans got one of the lowest TV ratings in their home market in their history. The need a good performance here or it's going to be a very long offseason that will see a lot of players and coaches looking for work.
Coach Munchak after the blowout: "It's embarrassing to lose 50-something to seven. That's just not acceptable and we let it happen. Thank God we have that (game next week) because I wouldn't want this to be our last game of the year."
CB Alteraun Verner: "We've got to have a serious self-evaluation. We have one more game and we've got to fix it. This is embarrassing."
The Tits haven't been bad against bad teams either as they sport a 5-2 SU & ATS record against teams with losing records. A little extra motivation may be trying to avoid losing twice in the same year to a 2-13 team.
St. Louis +10.5
I'll step in front of the Seahawks freight train here. This team isn't going to name their score every week especially when they are playing a good, underrated Rams team. 10.5 spreads are reserved for crap teams, certainly not a team that has played hard all season and have a shot at their first winning season in almost 10 years. Seattle was -10.5 at home to Arizona three weeks ago, let's not get carried away here.
We all know Seattle is dominate at home but not many likely know the Rams are 6-1 ATS on the road. St. Louis is also 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season. The reasons for that record are because they are good and underrated, they play hard every week, and they don't turn the ball over. Only 8 teams have turned the ball over fewer times than the Rams this season and if the Skins win this week then all 8 of those teams are going to make the playoffs.
I respect what Seattle has done but they are due for a letdown game. Off their biggest statement of the year I think this is a prime spot, especially against a team that likes to dirty it up and play close, low scoring games. Big picture is Seattle is most likely the #5 seed. I don't think anyone believes SF is going to lose to ARZ so the reality is this is basically a meaningless game for Seattle. Even if Carroll has shown himself to be a maniac what good does it do to go all out and run up another score when you're going to be playing a road playoff game, possibly on the east coast, and possibly in 6 days? It's a dirty little secret but Seattle can be run on. If the Rams can establish the run it gives them an even better chance of covering.
GL gents.
I was originally going to take this week off as the last two weeks usually bite me but I like these two enough to get involved:
Tennessee -4
I'm usually jumping the gun to fade a bad team laying more than a FG but I'm going the other way here.
I had Jacksonville last week and they played their Super Bowl against the Pats. Every player played their balls off on both sides of the ball. The sideline was exceptionally fired up after every big play. Unfortunately the Jags still managed to find a way to lose. They even had two cracks late to tie the game but threw two picks in the endzone, the last one coming on the last play of the game. Now I think there is going to be a hangover this week. The reality sits in that they gave it a great go last week against a giant but now at 2-13, beat up as all hell, and on the road I think they roll over with the finish line to a miserable season finally in sight. This team has 21 players on IR and just lost their best offensive player in Shorts this week. The season has been an epic disaster and they just emptied the tank last week.
The Titans may have appeared to pack it in as well but there are several factors at play here. First of all they really embarrassed themselves last week. The owner reportedly quit watching the game, and the Titans got one of the lowest TV ratings in their home market in their history. The need a good performance here or it's going to be a very long offseason that will see a lot of players and coaches looking for work.
Coach Munchak after the blowout: "It's embarrassing to lose 50-something to seven. That's just not acceptable and we let it happen. Thank God we have that (game next week) because I wouldn't want this to be our last game of the year."
CB Alteraun Verner: "We've got to have a serious self-evaluation. We have one more game and we've got to fix it. This is embarrassing."
The Tits haven't been bad against bad teams either as they sport a 5-2 SU & ATS record against teams with losing records. A little extra motivation may be trying to avoid losing twice in the same year to a 2-13 team.
St. Louis +10.5
I'll step in front of the Seahawks freight train here. This team isn't going to name their score every week especially when they are playing a good, underrated Rams team. 10.5 spreads are reserved for crap teams, certainly not a team that has played hard all season and have a shot at their first winning season in almost 10 years. Seattle was -10.5 at home to Arizona three weeks ago, let's not get carried away here.
We all know Seattle is dominate at home but not many likely know the Rams are 6-1 ATS on the road. St. Louis is also 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season. The reasons for that record are because they are good and underrated, they play hard every week, and they don't turn the ball over. Only 8 teams have turned the ball over fewer times than the Rams this season and if the Skins win this week then all 8 of those teams are going to make the playoffs.
I respect what Seattle has done but they are due for a letdown game. Off their biggest statement of the year I think this is a prime spot, especially against a team that likes to dirty it up and play close, low scoring games. Big picture is Seattle is most likely the #5 seed. I don't think anyone believes SF is going to lose to ARZ so the reality is this is basically a meaningless game for Seattle. Even if Carroll has shown himself to be a maniac what good does it do to go all out and run up another score when you're going to be playing a road playoff game, possibly on the east coast, and possibly in 6 days? It's a dirty little secret but Seattle can be run on. If the Rams can establish the run it gives them an even better chance of covering.
GL gents.
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