NFL WEEK 3....................................

Question

Chargers -7 (-120) over Rams --- 6 units to win 5 unitsWant to get this game in at 7 as line is dropping already, more picks to come.

theclaw · Answer

Chargers -7 (-120) over Rams --- 6 units to win 5 unitsWant to get this game in at 7 as line is dropping already, more picks to come.

undermysac · Answer

&#x2B;7 sir, typo I&#x27;m sure.All ready at 6.5

theclaw · Answer

Opps &#x2B;7 yes was &#x2B;7 at -110 yesterday, yea dropping already, thought it might but didn&#x27;t make the move coz you never know.

theclaw · Answer

60% METHOD...............................

we have 3 fades this week, Rams, Colts and Broncos all 3 teams were no-where near as good as they look last week and for the Rams this is the 2cd week in a row their play on the field was not close to the final scores in their games.

Rams could be in deep regression if they cover this week, unsustainable level of play at this point.

Chargers -7 over Rams ...... 6 units to win 5

Eagles -6.5 over Colts ........5.5 units

Ravens -5.5 over Broncos ...5.5 units

theclaw · Answer

Westgate Super Football Contest........................5-5

Eagles

Chargers

Ravens

KC

Bucs

we had 1 team left out which was Cowboys, we'll see if we added the right 2 teams KC and Bucs instead of the Boys.

theclaw · Answer

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL.....................................

Browns should be, could be, would have been 2-0, alot of talk on how that can not winm games.

But that was VS playoff calibre teams, and they did come back down 14 in the 4th VS Steelers, not like that didn't prove something. This is not the same Browns team, playing at home VS a much weaker opp and looking to get the monkey off their backs.

And Tyrod has a history of passing the ball very well VS weaker teams, he seems to struggle VS the better teams.

I would look for Tyrod to come up big tonight .

The public got buried last weekend and they did not do well week 1, this is a great spot to ride the public in a regression play and back the Browns.

LEAN --- Browns -3 over Jets

theclaw · Answer

Looky, looky, looky, the public needed a win and they got one, sometimes the house needs a win and they get one but the same happens to the public.

The public just might be in for a good week this week, good news is every play we made the public is on. Just the way it worked out.

The 67% games and better were a dreadful 2-5 last week, Browns did have 67% on them right up till game day but dropped to 66%.

Don't be surprised if the bigger %'s do well this week, KC was the biggest % play but have not checked this morn.

Seems many are fading KC this week because Mahomes can not sustain his play, but the defense giving up 508 yards per game will not sustain that either, so even if Mahomes plays not as well the defense can and almost certainly will get better.

CBS super computer did pick 49ers +6.5 and the Rams, going Against 2 of our picks. We'll see where the chips fall.

theclaw · Answer

Sun, Mon, Thurs, night football............................leans 1-1

Browns got it done. But was not Tyrod, he was not very good when he had opprtunities for the most part. a 39 QBPR, but in his defense, the Jets blitzed quite a bit and had guys unblocked on him in no time at all.

And the coaches did not seem to make any adjustments to help him,

he did have time on some plays, had a couple of wide open long plays but threw short each time , those oppurtunities were there for him to score on and a few others as well.

Tyrod is a great running QB with a high sack rate which indicates he can not read defenses very well and won't get the ball out quick on blitz, and the Jets were after him quite a bit with the blitz which really limited what he could do and the coaches seem to not make adjustments.

Darnold had a dreadful 38 QBPR with Baker a 100. Very strong start for Baker, but didn't Darnold start strong, I think he had a 116 QBPR HIS 1st game.

The game had the highest watch game in 3 years on NFL network for those who said nobody cared or would watch this matchup.

theclaw · Answer

CBS super computer also took Ravens winning 60% of simulations over Broncos.

Broncos QBPR is dreadful at 73.6 and defense gives up 108.9 = (-35.3). Might be the only team in history 2-0 while being CRUSHED in QBPR

Thet get out-played in every area of QBPR, COMPLETION %, TD %, INT %, and ave per pass attempt and not by a small amount but a fairly large amount in each area.

They do make up some ground with sacks, 9.7 % while getting sacked only 2.6 % a huge 7.1 % difference.

That brings the ave per pass attempt down from (-1.6) before sacks to only (-.2) after sacks. Still not good but not dreadfull either.

They do dominate the running game out-gaining opps by 79 yards per game.

Even with the running game and sacks Broncos need to improve their QBPR diff today or they won't hang with the Ravens. Doubt they have the ability, Case was most likely a 1 year wonder who fell into the right situation for him and got lucky as well.

When we look back at QB's over history many will have that 1 standout year that they never seem to duplicate again and for Case that will likely be last year.

Hopefully the computer will be right with the Ravens and wrong on the other games.............................

theclaw · Answer

KC did fall back with pubilc %&#x27;s but are now back to the highest % at 70% tied with Vikings.Public should get it done today after getting crushed last week and beat up in week 1, They got off to a good start on thursday night with the Browns getting their 1st win in a long time. Seems many here on the site like the 9ers today, really looking forward to this game, we&#x27;ll see what Mahomes can do after he got what seems like alot of pats on the back, hopefully he stays focused and rolls on.If he does not play as well, very likely Chiefs defense plays better and bails the Chiefs out for the win and cover.When we add in Jimmy G really makes this game are very interesting and exciting game to look forward to watching.

Fresh952 · Answer

GL today!   Love reading your analysis.

theclaw · Answer

pUBLIC BOUNCED BACK TODAY 8-6 ats BUT ONLY 1-2 in 67% and better.off a 2-5 week with 67% and over  last week we back the public with 70% on PatsLEAN --- Pats -7 over Lions

theclaw · Answer

KC rolls again building a huge lead and the defense did play better untill they had a big lead .

They shut-down 9ers in 1st quarter. But was shaky later in the game.

We fade KC next week.

The big disappointment was Chargers who hung in there but that early INT in end zone and then the defensive back runs it out going out at the 1 yard line which set-up the blocked punt by Rams .

Obviously a huge mistake by the player who did not seem to know the rule, take the touchback.

If not for that play Chargers may have been able to hang in there keeping it close. They seemed to be able to answer the Rams scores but that one easy score was to much.

We never know for sure but without that play maybe a different game. You can't give a team like the Rams that advantage.

Ravens had a block punt early as well , wow it happened to 2 teams with easy scores early off blocked punts, that was brutal going. But Ravens bounced back and won .

Had we had the Chargers cover would of been 3-1 in contest going into monday night game with a chance at 4-1.

But was nervous about the Bucs with a huge line movement of 3.5 to 4.5 points on the Bucs, I would never want to be on the side of these big movements and thought Bucs were in trouble this game.

Fitz has always had a issue with INT's and they seem to come in streaks and they sure did this game.

theclaw · Answer

week  ....................2-3season ................7-8still early, not the greatest of starts but we can make a move ,. not that far back yet as the top players will at some point come back to the pack.

theclaw · Answer

week ................1-2, lost 6.5 units60% method season ..............1-2, lost 6.5 units

theclaw · Answer

sun, mon, thurs night football ........................leans ..........1-2 ATS

theclaw · Answer

Case was who we thought he was, the Broncos got pounded in QBPR again this time by Flacco and the Ravens.

Flacco 91.4 - Case 67.3 = 24.1

Flacco out-played Case in 3 of 4 areas of QBPR, finally Case won 1 area after 3 games and that in completion % by around 2%..

So Case won 1 area by a very small amount and lost 11 areas big, crazy but true how he has regressed back to his old self.

Broncos have a very strong run game combo of off and def out-gaining opps big time but with at least a decent passing game it won't mean much.

With a running game this good all they need is a decent to good passing game , does not need to be a great passing game or very good , just good .

This week playing KC , maybe the running game can keep Mahomes on the bench with KC's weak defense and give Bronco's a chance to win with a close game or possibly Case will regress to playing better VS KC's weak defense.

But we have a fade on KC in the 60% method and will take action on the Case led Broncos.

NFL WEEK 3....................................

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