NFL Week 4 Contrarian

2-1 last week.. Dallas had plenty of opportunities to cover. 

Philadelphia +7 (-110) @ San Francisco - This game interests me given Philly's start to the season including the 0-2-1 record and, once again, laundry list of injuries. Now, they travel to the West coast to play the also-battered 49ers. There is no doubt that SF is still the better team but this is a regression to the mean play.

Prediction: 23-20 Eagles 

Atlanta +8 (-125) @ Green Bay - The Falcons defense has stunk but Green Bay's is not great either. Atlanta has proven they can score and, in the NFL, I will take the points more often than not. Again, a regression to the mean play where I believe the Falcons are capable of keeping pace, at least.

Prediction: 34-28 Packers

I like SF and Atlanta. I’d agree with the regression except for three factors:

1) Niners already dropped their opener and you are suggesting they lose their second game at home on national tv.

2) The last time we saw the Niners on National tv they wet the bed in the SB and I think they’ll want to erase that bad memory. 

3) Because the Niners have been a mash unit of late the team is constantly shuffling in new players and fresh blood. Guys are coming back from injury while others are going on IR so the team that beat the Giants wasn’t exactly the team that beat the Jets and won’t be the same team that takes on the Eagles. This keeps the team mentally and physically fresh even if a bit rusty to start the games.

Prediction stay in your basement cuzz

wild fire is the name when u ready to win 

Added:

Detroit +4 (-110) vs. New Orleans - For obvious injury-related reasons, I am playing this line. In addition, I still believe the public over-values the Saints. 

Saints will have a lot of guys out for this game. Falcons have nothing to lose, might play fast and loose.