You'll be hard-pressed to find a more fraudulent 3-0 team than the Titans. They've won 3 games by a combined 6 points while playing some of the bottom feeders in the NFL in the Broncos, Jags, and Vikes. And digging into the box scores, I'm not even sure they were the better team in any of those games - they were outgained by 0.7, 0.5, and 1.4 yards per play in each of those contests. It's the turnovers that have been the difference thru 3 games - the Titans have a +5 TO differential. Relying on turnovers and squeaking by with last-second field goals isn't sustainable... On the other side, I do have some questions about Big Ben and the Steelers offense, but a Titans defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per play allowed isn't the unit to expose the Steelers offense. Advantages on both sides of the ball in this one for the Steelers. I'll back them to expose the Titans on Sunday.
4
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Steelers -1
You'll be hard-pressed to find a more fraudulent 3-0 team than the Titans. They've won 3 games by a combined 6 points while playing some of the bottom feeders in the NFL in the Broncos, Jags, and Vikes. And digging into the box scores, I'm not even sure they were the better team in any of those games - they were outgained by 0.7, 0.5, and 1.4 yards per play in each of those contests. It's the turnovers that have been the difference thru 3 games - the Titans have a +5 TO differential. Relying on turnovers and squeaking by with last-second field goals isn't sustainable... On the other side, I do have some questions about Big Ben and the Steelers offense, but a Titans defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per play allowed isn't the unit to expose the Steelers offense. Advantages on both sides of the ball in this one for the Steelers. I'll back them to expose the Titans on Sunday.
I really like this Panthers team. They're a feisty bunch. They played the Raiders down to the wire in week 1, fought back from a big deficit against the Buccs in week 2 to get within a score in the 4th, and pulled off the upset in week 3 in their first game without CMC. When they take care of the football, they've been in the game until the end. The lone game they lost by DDs is when they turned the ball over 4 times against the Buccs. Teddy usually takes good care of the football and the Cardinals have only generated 2 TOs in 3 weeks and both those came against Haskins and the WFT... The Cardinals defense is 12th in yards per play allowed which is solid, but I'm not sold on the competition they've faced to date. The played a 49ers offense in week 1 that was missing their top 2 WRs and had an injured George Kittle in the 2nd half, the WFT in week 2, and the Lions in week 3. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals offense hasn't been as good as you might expect with the amount of Kyler Murray highlights you've seen through 3 weeks. They're 18th in yards per play... Carolina is actually 11th for reference. In fairness, they've played some good D fronts in the Niners and WFT, so the Panthers will be a step down in competition... At the end of the day, I think the public is a tad too high on Murray and the Cardinals. They haven't shown the ability to consistently move the ball on offense and the Panthers have quietly been very good passing the ball - they're 6th in the league at 8.4 yards per pass attempt. I think it's a bit much for the Cardinals to be laying 3.5 on the road against the Panthers at this point, so I'll back the Panthers in this one.
1
Panthers +3.5
I really like this Panthers team. They're a feisty bunch. They played the Raiders down to the wire in week 1, fought back from a big deficit against the Buccs in week 2 to get within a score in the 4th, and pulled off the upset in week 3 in their first game without CMC. When they take care of the football, they've been in the game until the end. The lone game they lost by DDs is when they turned the ball over 4 times against the Buccs. Teddy usually takes good care of the football and the Cardinals have only generated 2 TOs in 3 weeks and both those came against Haskins and the WFT... The Cardinals defense is 12th in yards per play allowed which is solid, but I'm not sold on the competition they've faced to date. The played a 49ers offense in week 1 that was missing their top 2 WRs and had an injured George Kittle in the 2nd half, the WFT in week 2, and the Lions in week 3. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals offense hasn't been as good as you might expect with the amount of Kyler Murray highlights you've seen through 3 weeks. They're 18th in yards per play... Carolina is actually 11th for reference. In fairness, they've played some good D fronts in the Niners and WFT, so the Panthers will be a step down in competition... At the end of the day, I think the public is a tad too high on Murray and the Cardinals. They haven't shown the ability to consistently move the ball on offense and the Panthers have quietly been very good passing the ball - they're 6th in the league at 8.4 yards per pass attempt. I think it's a bit much for the Cardinals to be laying 3.5 on the road against the Panthers at this point, so I'll back the Panthers in this one.
I can get the hook at BMaker for -124 so I'll do that. Look, the Jags looked like garbage on TNF. But I think we're getting a good price on a team that's not as bad as they looked as a result. They lost by 18, but gave up less than 300 yards of total offense. It was a couple turnovers and some empty drives where the Jags failed to convert on 4th down that made the final score so lopsided. I don't think the Jags are as bad as the final score suggests. And the Bengals shouldn't be laying a field goal or more to anyone in the league at this point. I realize they've covered their first 3 games of the season, and Joe Burrow has shown some good signs, but all this masks the fact that the Bengals are dead last in the league on offense at 4.2 yards per play. That's a full .3 yards per play lower than the next worse team - the WFT at 4.5 yards per play. That's atrocious but it's gone under the radar. The O-line of the Bengals is a huge liability and Joe Burrow is taking a beating back there. Plus they can't get the run game going at all - they're 31st in the league at 3.4 yards per carry. And they're laying 3+ points?! No thanks... the Bengals offense has talent, but I need to see them, and Zac Taylor, put it together before I'll buy them laying points.
1
Jaguars +3.5
I can get the hook at BMaker for -124 so I'll do that. Look, the Jags looked like garbage on TNF. But I think we're getting a good price on a team that's not as bad as they looked as a result. They lost by 18, but gave up less than 300 yards of total offense. It was a couple turnovers and some empty drives where the Jags failed to convert on 4th down that made the final score so lopsided. I don't think the Jags are as bad as the final score suggests. And the Bengals shouldn't be laying a field goal or more to anyone in the league at this point. I realize they've covered their first 3 games of the season, and Joe Burrow has shown some good signs, but all this masks the fact that the Bengals are dead last in the league on offense at 4.2 yards per play. That's a full .3 yards per play lower than the next worse team - the WFT at 4.5 yards per play. That's atrocious but it's gone under the radar. The O-line of the Bengals is a huge liability and Joe Burrow is taking a beating back there. Plus they can't get the run game going at all - they're 31st in the league at 3.4 yards per carry. And they're laying 3+ points?! No thanks... the Bengals offense has talent, but I need to see them, and Zac Taylor, put it together before I'll buy them laying points.
I wasn't high on the Buccs coming into the season, but I'm starting to come around on them. Why? Because I think their defense is for real. They're #2 in DVOA after 3 weeks and they boast one of the best run Ds in the league. That'll pose problems for a Chargers O that wants to build around a strong rushing attack. Not being able to lean on the run game means Herbert will most likely have to shoulder the load. And while he's shown glimpses, he showed in week 3 that he's going to make some dumb rookie mistakes. I think it's asking too much of him to go on the road and beat a Buccs offense that showed some life in the past 2 weeks. On defense, the Chargers are down 3 of their 4 best players and their already thin secondary will be without Chris Harris. They'll get some relief with Godwin likely being out for the Buccs, but there's still enough talent at the Buccs skill positions to give this beat-up defense issues, making the Buccs an ideal teaser option.
A lot of people will make the case that the Bears are one of the worst 3-0 teams in recent history (I disagree, I think it's the Titans). I get the argument, as they've had some luck in all 3 of their wins. But they're quietly playing some great defense - they're 6th in defensive DVOA thru 3 weeks and 3rd in yards per pass attempt allowed. The issue has been on offense, where Trubisky has been largely inconsistent with a few high moments. It looked like a different offense with Foles at the helm. I don't think Foles is going to suddenly light this O on fire, but I do think the offense will operate better with him at the helm. Meanwhile, the Colts D has been phenomenal - 1st in DVOA - thru 3 weeks, but you gotta chalk some of that up to playing the Jets and the Jags offenses in 2 of the first 3 weeks. I think it's a good unit, but I don't think it's as good as it's shown thru 3 weeks... At the end of the day, I expect a low scoring, defensive game with the Bears D able to keep the Colts O in check while Foles and the Bears O do enough to keep it close. So I'll pair the Buccs with the Bears at +8.5 in what I expect to be a one-score game either way.
1
6 pt teaser - Buccs -1/Bears +8.5
I wasn't high on the Buccs coming into the season, but I'm starting to come around on them. Why? Because I think their defense is for real. They're #2 in DVOA after 3 weeks and they boast one of the best run Ds in the league. That'll pose problems for a Chargers O that wants to build around a strong rushing attack. Not being able to lean on the run game means Herbert will most likely have to shoulder the load. And while he's shown glimpses, he showed in week 3 that he's going to make some dumb rookie mistakes. I think it's asking too much of him to go on the road and beat a Buccs offense that showed some life in the past 2 weeks. On defense, the Chargers are down 3 of their 4 best players and their already thin secondary will be without Chris Harris. They'll get some relief with Godwin likely being out for the Buccs, but there's still enough talent at the Buccs skill positions to give this beat-up defense issues, making the Buccs an ideal teaser option.
A lot of people will make the case that the Bears are one of the worst 3-0 teams in recent history (I disagree, I think it's the Titans). I get the argument, as they've had some luck in all 3 of their wins. But they're quietly playing some great defense - they're 6th in defensive DVOA thru 3 weeks and 3rd in yards per pass attempt allowed. The issue has been on offense, where Trubisky has been largely inconsistent with a few high moments. It looked like a different offense with Foles at the helm. I don't think Foles is going to suddenly light this O on fire, but I do think the offense will operate better with him at the helm. Meanwhile, the Colts D has been phenomenal - 1st in DVOA - thru 3 weeks, but you gotta chalk some of that up to playing the Jets and the Jags offenses in 2 of the first 3 weeks. I think it's a good unit, but I don't think it's as good as it's shown thru 3 weeks... At the end of the day, I expect a low scoring, defensive game with the Bears D able to keep the Colts O in check while Foles and the Bears O do enough to keep it close. So I'll pair the Buccs with the Bears at +8.5 in what I expect to be a one-score game either way.
I cashed a ticket on the Lions last week, but they were fortunate to get the win. It took an uncharacteristic 3 INTs from Kyler Murray for the Lions to pull off the upset. I wouldn't count on that repeating against Brees and Co. And I'm not a fan of what the Lions are doing on offense. They stubbornly stick to the running game despite having little success. With Adrian Peterson reportedly sliding into the starting role, it seems like they're doubling down on that philosophy. I don't get it. AP is a one-trick pony that limits what you do offensively. He's not good as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, he doesn't pass protect... But if that's what the Lions want to do, I'll gladly bet against them. Especially against the Saints top-5 run D. Despite the headlines about Drew Brees' arm strength, the Saints production on O has been just fine through 3 weeks. They've put up ~400 yards in both losses and that was without their best WR who they should get back this week. And I can't see the 27th ranked (DVOA) Lions D putting up much resistance to the Saints offense. If there's a concern with the Saints, it's been with their pass D the past 2 weeks. I'm not sure what the issue is, but if the Lions were smart, they'd test the Saints through the air with the weapons they have at WR and TE. But I wouldn't count on it Lions fans. It's much more likely the Lions continue to run into a brick wall and hope Stafford can bail them out on 3rd and long. I'm sure he'll make some plays, but I don't think Stafford can make nearly enough to keep pace here. I'll back the Saints to return to form.
4
Saints -4
I cashed a ticket on the Lions last week, but they were fortunate to get the win. It took an uncharacteristic 3 INTs from Kyler Murray for the Lions to pull off the upset. I wouldn't count on that repeating against Brees and Co. And I'm not a fan of what the Lions are doing on offense. They stubbornly stick to the running game despite having little success. With Adrian Peterson reportedly sliding into the starting role, it seems like they're doubling down on that philosophy. I don't get it. AP is a one-trick pony that limits what you do offensively. He's not good as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, he doesn't pass protect... But if that's what the Lions want to do, I'll gladly bet against them. Especially against the Saints top-5 run D. Despite the headlines about Drew Brees' arm strength, the Saints production on O has been just fine through 3 weeks. They've put up ~400 yards in both losses and that was without their best WR who they should get back this week. And I can't see the 27th ranked (DVOA) Lions D putting up much resistance to the Saints offense. If there's a concern with the Saints, it's been with their pass D the past 2 weeks. I'm not sure what the issue is, but if the Lions were smart, they'd test the Saints through the air with the weapons they have at WR and TE. But I wouldn't count on it Lions fans. It's much more likely the Lions continue to run into a brick wall and hope Stafford can bail them out on 3rd and long. I'm sure he'll make some plays, but I don't think Stafford can make nearly enough to keep pace here. I'll back the Saints to return to form.
you are such an actor holly wood is hiring you are low for doing this to these people players these guys are here trying to make money and you go and post a script wow how do you sleep with your self knowing that you are a little duke
French23
0
Stop lies cuzz
you are such an actor holly wood is hiring you are low for doing this to these people players these guys are here trying to make money and you go and post a script wow how do you sleep with your self knowing that you are a little duke
I gotta admit it's not fun betting against the Seahawks offense right now. They're on fire and Russ is torching everything in his path. But the success they're having on offense masks the fact that their defense has been atrocious. They've given up 506, 464, and 522 yards in the first 3 weeks. It's interesting to think about what the narrative around this team would be if they hadn't got defensive holds on the last drive of the games against the Patriots and Cowboys. And while the Seahawks offense is great, I don't think the pace Russ is playing at is sustainable. He's not going to throw 80 TDs this year. And if the Seahawks defense doesn't pick up the slack, even a minor regression by Seattle's O will be an issue. On the road in Miami possibly without Chris Carson, Seattle won't be able to milk the clock if they get a DD lead and with the way their defense is playing, the back door is a possibility in this one. On the other side, I think the Dolphins are a tad better than people give them credit for. They played 2 good teams tough in the first 2 weeks. They were down by 3 against the Patriots w/ 10 min left in the 4th. Fitz threw a pick in the endzone with 1:30 left which prevented them from getting the cover. And they followed that up by playing the Bills tough. They had a chance to take the lead late in the 4th in that one before ultimately losing by 3. And as good as Seattle has been over the past 2 seasons, they're addicted to playing in close games - Seattle has won 15 games over the course of the last 2 seasons (including playoffs) - only 2 of those wins were by more than 1 score. Obviously, was hoping to get the 7 w/ Miami this week, but I think it's telling that the line has since come down the other way. I'll take the Dolphins here as Seattle's D finds a way to let Miami stick around in the end.
1
Dolphins +6
I gotta admit it's not fun betting against the Seahawks offense right now. They're on fire and Russ is torching everything in his path. But the success they're having on offense masks the fact that their defense has been atrocious. They've given up 506, 464, and 522 yards in the first 3 weeks. It's interesting to think about what the narrative around this team would be if they hadn't got defensive holds on the last drive of the games against the Patriots and Cowboys. And while the Seahawks offense is great, I don't think the pace Russ is playing at is sustainable. He's not going to throw 80 TDs this year. And if the Seahawks defense doesn't pick up the slack, even a minor regression by Seattle's O will be an issue. On the road in Miami possibly without Chris Carson, Seattle won't be able to milk the clock if they get a DD lead and with the way their defense is playing, the back door is a possibility in this one. On the other side, I think the Dolphins are a tad better than people give them credit for. They played 2 good teams tough in the first 2 weeks. They were down by 3 against the Patriots w/ 10 min left in the 4th. Fitz threw a pick in the endzone with 1:30 left which prevented them from getting the cover. And they followed that up by playing the Bills tough. They had a chance to take the lead late in the 4th in that one before ultimately losing by 3. And as good as Seattle has been over the past 2 seasons, they're addicted to playing in close games - Seattle has won 15 games over the course of the last 2 seasons (including playoffs) - only 2 of those wins were by more than 1 score. Obviously, was hoping to get the 7 w/ Miami this week, but I think it's telling that the line has since come down the other way. I'll take the Dolphins here as Seattle's D finds a way to let Miami stick around in the end.
Buying out of my Saints play. I was optimistic that most of their key players would be healthy for this one, but the final injury report just came out and the Saints are decimated by injuries. No Cook, Davenport, Jenkins, Lattimore, Peat, or Thomas. Yikes. I'll sit this one out and eat the juice.
0
Lions +4
Buying out of my Saints play. I was optimistic that most of their key players would be healthy for this one, but the final injury report just came out and the Saints are decimated by injuries. No Cook, Davenport, Jenkins, Lattimore, Peat, or Thomas. Yikes. I'll sit this one out and eat the juice.
Kicking myself for not locking in the full game under when this line was released. Opened at 45 and got smashed down to 42.5. But I think there's still some value in the 1st half total so I'll play it. I don't know how the Chargers are going to score in this one. They'll be down 2 starting offensive linemen and WR Williams against one of the best defenses in the league (Buccs are 2nd in DVOA). The Chargers want to run the ball, but they won't be able to do that 2 starters up-front against one of the best run Ds in the league. And I don't like Herbert's chances of moving the ball against the aggressive, blitz-happy TB defense. I think Herbert is in for a rough day... The downside of this play is the injuries on the Chargers defense. But they're still middle of the pack statistically, and w/ the Buccs missing Godwin and Fornette for this game, I think they can keep them in check enough to keep this below the posted total. I like the full game under as well, but think there's more value in playing the first half at this point.
0
Chargers/Buccs 1st half u22
Kicking myself for not locking in the full game under when this line was released. Opened at 45 and got smashed down to 42.5. But I think there's still some value in the 1st half total so I'll play it. I don't know how the Chargers are going to score in this one. They'll be down 2 starting offensive linemen and WR Williams against one of the best defenses in the league (Buccs are 2nd in DVOA). The Chargers want to run the ball, but they won't be able to do that 2 starters up-front against one of the best run Ds in the league. And I don't like Herbert's chances of moving the ball against the aggressive, blitz-happy TB defense. I think Herbert is in for a rough day... The downside of this play is the injuries on the Chargers defense. But they're still middle of the pack statistically, and w/ the Buccs missing Godwin and Fornette for this game, I think they can keep them in check enough to keep this below the posted total. I like the full game under as well, but think there's more value in playing the first half at this point.
Drew Brees looks afraid to throw the ball downfield and with Thomas out another week I imagine Kamara will be all of New Orleans offense yet again. Kamara has more receiving yards right now than any rb has rushing yards. I haven't seen this line show up on Bovada's prop builder yet but if it's in that neighborhood I'm taking it, 55 is what is listed on Action Network. Also looking for all purpose yards prop. I thought the Packers would know to sit on those screens last week but he had his yardage by halftime.
Robby Anderson Over 57.5 receiving yards
D.J. Moore Over 65.5 receiving yards
I think ARI @ CAR could likely be a shootout. Beyond that they both were above or right next to this yardage the past two weeks against defenses much better than the defense in Arizona (LAC and TB) From what I understand Defensive DVOA doesn't adjust for strength of opponent until after week 4 because of the sample size and I'm not buying where Football Outsiders ranks ARI currently since Arizona has played the Lions and the WFT who flounder offensively. To really put the nail in the coffin though both Buddah Baker SS and Chris Banjo FS are already listed as out for this game. If you're bullish on these move's Anderson's reception total seems very achievable at 4.5 (D.J. Moore Rec line sits at 5.5)
0
Prop Watch:
Kamara Over 55 receiving yards
Drew Brees looks afraid to throw the ball downfield and with Thomas out another week I imagine Kamara will be all of New Orleans offense yet again. Kamara has more receiving yards right now than any rb has rushing yards. I haven't seen this line show up on Bovada's prop builder yet but if it's in that neighborhood I'm taking it, 55 is what is listed on Action Network. Also looking for all purpose yards prop. I thought the Packers would know to sit on those screens last week but he had his yardage by halftime.
Robby Anderson Over 57.5 receiving yards
D.J. Moore Over 65.5 receiving yards
I think ARI @ CAR could likely be a shootout. Beyond that they both were above or right next to this yardage the past two weeks against defenses much better than the defense in Arizona (LAC and TB) From what I understand Defensive DVOA doesn't adjust for strength of opponent until after week 4 because of the sample size and I'm not buying where Football Outsiders ranks ARI currently since Arizona has played the Lions and the WFT who flounder offensively. To really put the nail in the coffin though both Buddah Baker SS and Chris Banjo FS are already listed as out for this game. If you're bullish on these move's Anderson's reception total seems very achievable at 4.5 (D.J. Moore Rec line sits at 5.5)
Prop Watch: Kamara Over 55 receiving yards Drew Brees looks afraid to throw the ball downfield and with Thomas out another week I imagine Kamara will be all of New Orleans offense yet again. Kamara has more receiving yards right now than any rb has rushing yards. I haven't seen this line show up on Bovada's prop builder yet but if it's in that neighborhood I'm taking it, 55 is what is listed on Action Network. Also looking for all purpose yards prop. I thought the Packers would know to sit on those screens last week but he had his yardage by halftime. Robby Anderson Over 57.5 receiving yards D.J. Moore Over 65.5 receiving yards I think ARI @ CAR could likely be a shootout. Beyond that they both were above or right next to this yardage the past two weeks against defenses much better than the defense in Arizona (LAC and TB) From what I understand Defensive DVOA doesn't adjust for strength of opponent until after week 4 because of the sample size and I'm not buying where Football Outsiders ranks ARI currently since Arizona has played the Lions and the WFT who flounder offensively. To really put the nail in the coffin though both Buddah Baker SS and Chris Banjo FS are already listed as out for this game. If you're bullish on these move's Anderson's reception total seems very achievable at 4.5 (D.J. Moore Rec line sits at 5.5)
Love the analysis! Both make sense, but like the Robbie Anderson/DJ Moore props the most. Cardinals are really beat up in the secondary - down 3 safeties and maybe a starting corner. Panthers should be able to move the ball through the air in that one.
And you're right about DVOA. You gotta consider the strength of schedule thru 3 weeks and adjust accordingly until it gets factored in next week. BOL!
3
Quote Originally Posted by undefined:
Prop Watch: Kamara Over 55 receiving yards Drew Brees looks afraid to throw the ball downfield and with Thomas out another week I imagine Kamara will be all of New Orleans offense yet again. Kamara has more receiving yards right now than any rb has rushing yards. I haven't seen this line show up on Bovada's prop builder yet but if it's in that neighborhood I'm taking it, 55 is what is listed on Action Network. Also looking for all purpose yards prop. I thought the Packers would know to sit on those screens last week but he had his yardage by halftime. Robby Anderson Over 57.5 receiving yards D.J. Moore Over 65.5 receiving yards I think ARI @ CAR could likely be a shootout. Beyond that they both were above or right next to this yardage the past two weeks against defenses much better than the defense in Arizona (LAC and TB) From what I understand Defensive DVOA doesn't adjust for strength of opponent until after week 4 because of the sample size and I'm not buying where Football Outsiders ranks ARI currently since Arizona has played the Lions and the WFT who flounder offensively. To really put the nail in the coffin though both Buddah Baker SS and Chris Banjo FS are already listed as out for this game. If you're bullish on these move's Anderson's reception total seems very achievable at 4.5 (D.J. Moore Rec line sits at 5.5)
Love the analysis! Both make sense, but like the Robbie Anderson/DJ Moore props the most. Cardinals are really beat up in the secondary - down 3 safeties and maybe a starting corner. Panthers should be able to move the ball through the air in that one.
And you're right about DVOA. You gotta consider the strength of schedule thru 3 weeks and adjust accordingly until it gets factored in next week. BOL!
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