NFL WEEK 6...........................................................

Steelers -3 over Browns --- 5.5 units

Steelers 1st half -2.5 --- 1.1 units

Hey now, line drops to 3, beautiful thing.

On both of them ! Lets get it 

.......

Steelers were a big performer week 1 team and are 3-1 ATS in weeks 2-5.

Our other week 1 big performance team, Chargers are 3-1 ATS as well.

and our final week 1 team , Skins are 0-3-1 ATS, OBVIOUSLY THEY WON'T BE ANY BIG SURPRISE TEAM THIS SEASON.

The Steelers look to be that team, although the Chargers might just be a good ATS team and pull some upsets along the way.

Browns look very similar to Bears.................... out-scored opps by a total of 7 pts on the year

outgain opps by 15 on the year, not 15 per game but overall by 15 yds.

ave per play 5.8-5.7= .1

ave per pass 6.2-6.5 = (-.3)

QB passer rating , Mayfield 88.6- 94.1= (-5.5) 

rushing they have been very strong 942 yards - 435= outgaining opps big-time

ave per rush 5.5-3.9 = 1.6, excellent

How the heck is this team 4-1 ?

Well they are 6-12 at winning TO battle, they might be a little more lucky then good.

Steelers should expose this team today, with the Browns being in a very strong reggression spot playing on an usutainable level.

WESTGATE CONTEST....................................

Steelers

Jets

Boys

Panthers 

Skins

could of taken 9ers and possibly Titans. Titans were 0-3 ATS before crushing Bills but are now off a big blowout win, I know many guys, even some sharps like to fade teams off just 1 blowout big win but I don't think that's the way to go. The very good teams can roll off just 1 big win, better to wait a few games when teams get deeper into regression to fade them.

I would definately lean Titans today. If I needed a final pick would have been Titans.

How'S  that old saying go..... never give points with a bad team, plus we have a regression play on Skins, might be they're best shot to get a SU win.

wAS ABLE TO GET +3 YESTERDAY, we did get the best lines this week, buying Jets up to +10 and getting Steelers -3 plus getting the Skins at +3 and 9ers at +3.5 which dropped to +3, Jets at +8.5 today and Skins at +1.

I made a big effort to try and get to those key numbers as THIS good very well be a big, big week and I didn't want to miss out on a big week losing by a half point on a key number.

What is a regression play?

Yes, I have several queries that favor DAL, but queries are not "locks."  I had many queries that favored ATL last week and they all failed.

The strongest DAL query had these QR's (query results):

ATS:   367-230-11 (3.19, 61.5%)   Z = 5.57    The 3.19 is the average ATS margin.

That is a large, convincing sample size as the very high Z-figure indicates.  DAL is a solid play, but I have lost many games with Z-values of 4+.  Again, it is not a lock.  One query on NE already failed, so I am down $4.00 going into Monday night.  I have one unit ($5) on DAL +2 and a live ML parlay with IND SU in the books and DAL PK  - this ML parly is at +154.

Yes, I am a small recreational bettor, but I thoroughly enjoy the handicapping process win or lose.  Winning is better.

DAL sucked and that query did too.  I need to take a break from posting.

Best of luck for the rest of the year.  Thanks again for all of your time and effort.