NFL Week 6 Lawks [14-7 YTD]

Cowboys +2.5 - DOUBLE BET (1st of the season) 

Steelers -3.5 

Chiefs -3.5 

Rams/49ers o51 

Write-ups to come...

49ers +3.5 

Pitts and Cleveland should be great entertainment as will the KC/Buffalo game...both teams coming off losses...so I expect a supreme effort. I like your card...BOL 

good stuff. enjoy your writeups. lawk em up 

Adding another unit on Steelers -3 

The Browns are rolling at 4-1 and Kevin Stefanski deserves a ton of credit for his offensive scheme that has created a monster in the run game, and put Baker Mayfield in a position to succeed. I took the Browns season win total o8.5, so I've been pleasantly surprised by their hot start. But this week represents a huge step up in class, and I have some serious doubts about the Browns ability to hang with the big boys in the AFC. This is the by far the best defense the Browns have faced since week 1 vs the Ravens, a game in which they averaged 4.5 yards per play and turned the ball over 3 times. Baker was horrible in that game, completing just above 50% of his passes for a pitiful 4.1 yards per attempt. Falling behind early, the Browns weren't able to stick with the run game and Baker just isn't good enough to win a game if you put it all on his shoulders. And that's my biggest concern in this one. The Steelers D is excellent against the run, can rush the passer and opportunistic on the back end. They've allowed 3.3 yards per carry, 2nd in the league. They're 1st in the league in defensive run success rate. What happens if the Steelers are able to contain the run game? Can Baker make enough throws to keep pace with the Steelers offense? I don't think he can. His QBR when pressured is horrible and he's shown consistently over his career his process breaks down when he's under pressure. And the Steelers pass rush is excellent. They're tied for 1st in the league with 20 sacks despite player 1 less game than most teams and they have the highest adjusted sack rate in the league at 11.1%. I think it's going to be a long day for Baker. On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense is suspect against the pass, but what success it does have is built on the D Line pressuring the QB. But Big Ben has one of the quickest average snap to release times in the NFL, which should help negate the rush and allow the Steelers outside weapons to take advantage of the Browns secondary that lacks talent outside of Ward. I don't understand the move down to -3 in this one. But I'll gladly add another unit at this price since I think it gets back to -4 or higher by kick on Sunday.

49ers+3.5 & Rams/49ers o51 

I'm a diehard 49er fan, and last week was one of the most pathetic performances I've seen in the past 5 years. It was ugly. In fact, the past 2 weeks have been really ugly for 49er fans. But in the NFL teams aren't usually as bad or as good as they look in any given week. And this is a spot where I think we're getting value with the home team due to an overreaction to recent performance. The lookahead line for this game prior to week 5 was 49ers -3. It reopened at Rams -3.5. The question you got to ask yourself is if a full 6.5 point move, one that goes from one key number of -3 right through another key number to +3.5, is warranted based on last week's outcomes? I don't think it is. There were tons of issues in the 49ers games last week that I don't expect to be repeated. For one, they elevated Brian Allen of the practice squad and started him at CB b/c they were down 4 out of their top 5 CBs. Miami targeted him relentlessly. The backup CB was consistently roasted throughout the 1st half before he was finally pulled for Witherspoon who was only available in case of emergency with a hamstring injury. But this week, the starter Moseley should be back from a concussion and I expect Witherspoon to be healthy enough to play after he held up during the 2nd half against the Dolphins. That would be a huge upgrade in the secondary for the Niners. They'll still be without their two best CBs in Sherman and Williams, so I don't expect the secondary to play lights out, but Moseley and Witherspoon are a huge upgrade  none-the-less, and I think they can do enough to keep the D competitive. And keeping the Rams from getting out to a huge lead is critical. This 49ers O isn't build to come back from a large deficit. They're horrible as a straight drop back team and it showed on Sunday when they fell behind by multiple scores. They hang their hat on the run game, and play action and that goes away if they fall too far behind. And while the 49ers run game hasn't been great so far this year, I chalk part of that up to missing their top 2 backs for 2.5 games this year. With Mostert back, I think the run game can get going. He's averaged 7.0 yards per attempt this year and he's a big play waiting to happen every time he touches the ball. Even in the blowout last week, he averaged 8.2 yards per carry. But he was limited to 11 attempts due to the game script. The 49ers need to get him the ball more, and I'm willing to bet they will here on SNF.

Rambling a bit here, but at the end of the day, I expect the 49ers offense to bounce back from one of the worst showings of the Shanahan era. It's a starting O that's only had 1 practice together since the start of the season due to injuries, but should finally get a full week of practice in this week. I expect them to clean up the sloppiness and take advantage of a Rams run D that's 27th in success rate allowed. On D, getting Moseley and Witherspoon back is big. The Rams offense is playing great football, and I think they'll score here too which is why I also took the over. But if the 49ers D can do enough to keep this game close, I expect the 49ers O to have a big bounce-back effort here and put enough points on the board to keep this within the 3.5. Too big of a line move here, and I see value on the 49ers at +3.5.

I should add that the 49ers are wearing their all-white throwbacks for this game and that's worth at least 3 points in my model.

Cowboys +2.5 - DOUBLE BET 

This bet is about 3 things - 1) the Cardinals offense isn't nearly as good as most people think, 2) the Cowboys defense isn't nearly as bad as most people think and 3) there isn't as big of a difference between Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton as most people think.

Let's start with the Cardinals offense. They aren't who most people think they are. You see the fast-paced offense in 4 WR sets, highlights of Kyler Murray making plays with his legs, and Hopkins catching a bunch of balls and assume this is a pretty good offense. I mean the preseason hype was all about they were going to take the next step this year with the addition of Hopkins and Murray in his 2nd year. But looking at the stats, they're slightly below average. They're 20th in offensive DVOA, slightly below average in EPA per play, and 16th in pass efficiency. And they aren't explosive - they rank 17th in explosive pass plays, and Kyler Murray is 21st in the league at 7.2 yards per pass attempt.

Moving on to the Cowboy's D, they've been given the reputation as one of the worst in the league. And, don't get me wrong, I'm not here to make the claim that they're good, but I don't think they're as bad as most people think. 1st, they've played a brutal schedule of opposing offenses so far this year in the Rams, Falcons, Seahawks, and Browns. This past week against the Giants was the 1st step down in competition and despite what the scoreboard said, they played much better - holding the Giants to 4.8 yards per play. Turnovers by the Cowboys offense was the biggest reason the final score looked so bad, as the Giants had a defensive TD and a TD drive of 17 yards. The Cowboys D is 26 in the DVOA which isn't great, but my point is this - I think the gap in perception of the Cardinals offense vs. the Cowboys defense is much bigger than it is in reality.

Lastly, the lookahead line for this game was Dallas -3.5. It moved 6 pts on the Dak injury. I think that's way too much. Dak is a great QB, but there have been some issues with his play this year, mainly turnovers - he had 7 thru 4.5 games. And Andy Dalton has shown over his career that he's a serviceable QB when he has weapons around him, and this will be the best supporting cast he's had. I could see Dallas playing a bit more conservative, relying on Zeke more and limiting the turnovers that have plagued them so far this season with Dalton making enough plays with his arm to keep the offense scoring at a decent clip. The O-line injuries are concerning and will be an issue going forward, but the Cardinals D - who lost their best pass rusher for the season last week - isn't the team to exploit it.

Overall, I don't see much separation between these 2 defenses, and I think the Cowboys O - despite the loss of Dak - is a much better overall unit. This line is a bit of an overreaction to the Dak injury. I make Dallas a small favorite and think they play inspired ball and get the win on MNF.

Love the write ups! Keep up the good work Cap

Texans +3.5 

-120 at Bookmaker to get the 3.5. May get to a flat 3.5 if you wait a bit, but I'm content locking it in at this price. One of the weirder lines of the week, this line soft opened at Titans -4 last Sunday (before the Titans had played the Bills) and was down to Titans -2 in the blink of an eye. Then the Titans go out and drub the undefeated Bills on national TV and the line reopened -3. I'm sure this line appears crazy to the common fan, but it's supported by on-field performance somewhat. The Texans have been better than their record indicates, they've just happened to play a really difficult schedule to start the season with matchups against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and Vikings. The Jaguars were the first step down in class for the Texans, and surprise surprise they suddenly looked good. Houston is actually 3rd in the league in net YPP while Tennessee is 26th. Some of that can be chalked up to garbage time stats for the Texans and the reliance on an efficient run game from the Titans, for sure. But the point is these two teams are much closer than most people think. The thing that stands out to me about this game is the Titans D's inability to get after the QB and the rate at which Houston hits on explosive pass plays. The Titans are 32nd in adjusted sack rate, while Houston has the 3rd best explosive pass rate in the league. So I think Watson should have time to throw in this one, which will allow him to take shots down the field with a talented receiving core against a suspect secondary. I'll back the Texans to put enough points to stay within the number as they catch the Titans sleeping on a short week and in a sandwich game between showdowns against the Bills and Steelers.

Chiefs -3.5 

Got ahead of the line move w/ the Chiefs. But I'd still play it at the current line of -5. The regression train came fast for Josh Allen last week, and I have a hard time seeing him bouncing back here against the Chiefs. This is a straight forward handicap in my opinion. The Chiefs have are flat out better than the Bills across the board - better offense, better QB, and better defense. The Chiefs O is 2nd in DVOA, the Bills are 5th. The Chiefs D is 9th, the Bills are 21st. And I think the on the field matchup favors the Chiefs quite a bit too. If there's a blueprint for beating the Chiefs O, it's pressuring Mahomes with a 4 man rush and playing a soft zone behind. The Bills are the opposite of that - they are 29th in pressure rate while blitzing at the 4th highest rate. That's a recipe for disaster against this Chief's offense - just ask the Ravens D that got roasted by Mahomes and Co. on blitzes. On the other side of the ball, you attack this Chiefs D by running the ball since the Chiefs run D is suspect (they're 26th in run D success rate allowed). But the Bills are 22nd in rushing success rate, so I have a hard time seeing them being able to take advantage of that matchup. Better matchup, better team on the bounce back from an ugly loss. Chiefs roll in this one.

GREAT WRITE UPS. BOL 

Lest Gooooo Chieffffffffff 

GL this week Cap

Love the NINERS this week! Money Please guys do yourself a favor and STOP BETTING ON THE COWBOYS. They stink

Josh Allen regression train? I guess you haven’t watched him play in his last 17 games.

The point isn’t that Josh Allen hasn’t improved. It’s that up until last week he was being included in the MVP conversation. I don’t think he’s that caliber of QB, and I think he’s going to regress closer to his true form which is an average to above average QB. Keep in mind the opposing pass Ds Allen has faced so far this season. The Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders and Titans are all average to below average units. The Chiefs may not be a huge step up in class but it’ll be interesting to see how he fairs against better pass Ds later in the season.

You’re in for a BIG surprise then since you believe Allen is just an average QB.

Feel free to actually watch the games he plays.... I can tell you don’t watch.

Before last game, in Allen’s last 16 games (full season) he had 35TDs 3 INT. Not bad huh? 

Allen career in redzone before last game: 45TDs 0 INT.

Its not like he’s at his peak in year 3 LOL.... he’s only going to get better. 

Josh Allen is a MVP type quarterback who simply looked over Tenn last week w covid and Chiefs on deck. No qb is perfect. All qbs have a rough game (or 2 or 3) during a season.

Make a case for the Bills plus the points then, chief. I'm all ears.

Steelers -3 + Steelers -3.5 

Texans +3.5 

So close to a morning sweep... let's hope my 9ers O shows up tonight.

16-8 YTD

do you still like Sf at +2.5???? thanks 

I'd wait and see if it gets back to 3 prior to kickoff.

49ers +3.5 

Rams/49ers o50.5 

17-9 YTD

cant believe Texans blew it. what were they thinking going for 2 pt conversion.

wouldve been 4-1 this week in supercontest 

Brutal... been on the wrong side of too many of those so far this season 

Loved the card yesterday so disappointing to end the day 3-2.

Some really nice closing line value on tonight's games, though. Let's hope that means a 3-0 night!