Dear god do I even dare try and cap teh NFL this week after last week's hammer that smacked my in the head. Please take a venture into last weeks thread and take a look at what was an absolutely perfect week going 0-6. Nothing like rolling along and running into a brick wall. Albeit even after last week i'm still up a decent amount so my confidence is still lurking beneath last week's flesh wound. As always last weeks thread below...
Haven't even looked at a NFL spread all week, so please give me a little time to cook something drastically retarded up before sun rise...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
18-15-1 ytd +84.5 units...
4-2 POD's+53 units...
Dear god do I even dare try and cap teh NFL this week after last week's hammer that smacked my in the head. Please take a venture into last weeks thread and take a look at what was an absolutely perfect week going 0-6. Nothing like rolling along and running into a brick wall. Albeit even after last week i'm still up a decent amount so my confidence is still lurking beneath last week's flesh wound. As always last weeks thread below...
Cleveland @ Houston under 41 for 20 units... Things are not on the up and up for Cleveland right now. They are more so on the down and down as not only have they lost Peyton Hillis many games ago but they have now lost Montario Hardesty last week early in the game. Following Hardesty's departure Chris Ogbonnaya had 11 carries for just 37 yards struggling right along side with his QB Colt McCoy who also failed to pick up his teams slack. Although McCoy's stats from last game read 22 for 34 for 241 yards it should be noted that 49 of those yards came on 5 completions on the last drive of the game that ended with Cleveland failing to convert on a 4th and 5 from the San Fran 26 during garbage time. The Cleveland Browns scored just one TD in that game on a 45 yard pass to Joshua Cribbs who needed to avoid the sideline and dash for 16 yards to excape for the score. Aside's that play the Brown's had 10 other possesions in the game resulting in 6 punt's, 1 fumble lost, 1 interception, 1 fg & the game ending possesion I spoke of above. Things are not going to get any easier this week in Houston as they are currently succeeding on defense as they are currently allowing just 18ppg and just 286 yards of offense per game. That being said defense has been the reason that Cleveland has been able to hang around in games this season as they are only allowing 20ppg and 299 yards per game respectively. The Texans offense continues to move forth this season riddled with injuries to start player's like Andre Johnson and Arian Foster, and although Arian Foster has been playing he has not been at full health and I expect to see a Texan team tread with much concern as soon as they know this game should be in their hands. Houston has played to the under already at 6-2 while the Brown's have recently ripped off 3 under's in a row themselves. No reason to think many point's will be scored in this one...
Cleveland should struggle as most expected them to, but I expect the value to show up more in the total as the Cleveland defense could keep them in this game as it has many times this season so far...
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Cleveland @ Houston under 41 for 20 units... Things are not on the up and up for Cleveland right now. They are more so on the down and down as not only have they lost Peyton Hillis many games ago but they have now lost Montario Hardesty last week early in the game. Following Hardesty's departure Chris Ogbonnaya had 11 carries for just 37 yards struggling right along side with his QB Colt McCoy who also failed to pick up his teams slack. Although McCoy's stats from last game read 22 for 34 for 241 yards it should be noted that 49 of those yards came on 5 completions on the last drive of the game that ended with Cleveland failing to convert on a 4th and 5 from the San Fran 26 during garbage time. The Cleveland Browns scored just one TD in that game on a 45 yard pass to Joshua Cribbs who needed to avoid the sideline and dash for 16 yards to excape for the score. Aside's that play the Brown's had 10 other possesions in the game resulting in 6 punt's, 1 fumble lost, 1 interception, 1 fg & the game ending possesion I spoke of above. Things are not going to get any easier this week in Houston as they are currently succeeding on defense as they are currently allowing just 18ppg and just 286 yards of offense per game. That being said defense has been the reason that Cleveland has been able to hang around in games this season as they are only allowing 20ppg and 299 yards per game respectively. The Texans offense continues to move forth this season riddled with injuries to start player's like Andre Johnson and Arian Foster, and although Arian Foster has been playing he has not been at full health and I expect to see a Texan team tread with much concern as soon as they know this game should be in their hands. Houston has played to the under already at 6-2 while the Brown's have recently ripped off 3 under's in a row themselves. No reason to think many point's will be scored in this one...
Cleveland should struggle as most expected them to, but I expect the value to show up more in the total as the Cleveland defense could keep them in this game as it has many times this season so far...
N.Y. Giants +9 for 10 units... I don't care if Hakeem Nicks & Ahmad Bradshaw don't suit up for this one. The fact that the Patriot's defense is dead last in the stats column just makes this spread almost laughable. Eli Manning has been more than a bright spot for the Giants this season and Victor Cruz & Mario Manningham along with TE Jake Ballard should give Eli some nice targets while Eli is granted with more than enough time to deliver in the pocket. The Patroit's 424 yards per game allowed on defense this season has given even the great Tom Brady troubles to throw his way to covers as they are just 4-3ats this season although being 5-2su...
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N.Y. Giants +9 for 10 units... I don't care if Hakeem Nicks & Ahmad Bradshaw don't suit up for this one. The fact that the Patriot's defense is dead last in the stats column just makes this spread almost laughable. Eli Manning has been more than a bright spot for the Giants this season and Victor Cruz & Mario Manningham along with TE Jake Ballard should give Eli some nice targets while Eli is granted with more than enough time to deliver in the pocket. The Patroit's 424 yards per game allowed on defense this season has given even the great Tom Brady troubles to throw his way to covers as they are just 4-3ats this season although being 5-2su...
Kansas City -4 for 20 units.... Talk about a team that has all the sudden zeroed in on how to win with the flick of a switch. There 0-3 start sure seems like a long time ago as they have since pealed off 4 straight wins going a perfect 4-0ats in that span. This Cheif's team has to be licking their chops with the lowly Miami Dolphins heading into town. I love the fact that we have a team that seems to be very focused on doing what it takes to win going up against a team that is in teh running for the Andrew Luck sweep stakes. Oh did I forget to mention the small spread of only having to lay just 4 points at home in Arrowhead stadium. This one gets ugly ..POD
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Kansas City -4 for 20 units.... Talk about a team that has all the sudden zeroed in on how to win with the flick of a switch. There 0-3 start sure seems like a long time ago as they have since pealed off 4 straight wins going a perfect 4-0ats in that span. This Cheif's team has to be licking their chops with the lowly Miami Dolphins heading into town. I love the fact that we have a team that seems to be very focused on doing what it takes to win going up against a team that is in teh running for the Andrew Luck sweep stakes. Oh did I forget to mention the small spread of only having to lay just 4 points at home in Arrowhead stadium. This one gets ugly ..POD
Kansas City -4 for 20 units.... Talk about a team that has all the sudden zeroed in on how to win with the flick of a switch. There 0-3 start sure seems like a long time ago as they have since pealed off 4 straight wins going a perfect 4-0ats in that span. This Cheif's team has to be licking their chops with the lowly Miami Dolphins heading into town. I love the fact that we have a team that seems to be very focused on doing what it takes to win going up against a team that is in teh running for the Andrew Luck sweep stakes. Oh did I forget to mention the small spread of only having to lay just 4 points at home in Arrowhead stadium. This one gets ugly ..POD
Be careful with this one for a a few reasons. I think you do an excellent job of analyzing but this one I leaned KC til I consider a few things. Mia has played well only not to finish, they wont go 0 for. They are close. 2. KC is on a 4 game streak playing well without key components but this one at only 4, and it has dropped fast from the original opening line, but smart money sees this as a possible slip up spot. I will be on Mia in this one. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, I hardly ever go against KC here but dont be surprised if MIA wins this outright.
Thanks for your hard work and input. I always highly consider your information. GL
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Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
3rd play is:
Kansas City -4 for 20 units.... Talk about a team that has all the sudden zeroed in on how to win with the flick of a switch. There 0-3 start sure seems like a long time ago as they have since pealed off 4 straight wins going a perfect 4-0ats in that span. This Cheif's team has to be licking their chops with the lowly Miami Dolphins heading into town. I love the fact that we have a team that seems to be very focused on doing what it takes to win going up against a team that is in teh running for the Andrew Luck sweep stakes. Oh did I forget to mention the small spread of only having to lay just 4 points at home in Arrowhead stadium. This one gets ugly ..POD
Be careful with this one for a a few reasons. I think you do an excellent job of analyzing but this one I leaned KC til I consider a few things. Mia has played well only not to finish, they wont go 0 for. They are close. 2. KC is on a 4 game streak playing well without key components but this one at only 4, and it has dropped fast from the original opening line, but smart money sees this as a possible slip up spot. I will be on Mia in this one. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, I hardly ever go against KC here but dont be surprised if MIA wins this outright.
Thanks for your hard work and input. I always highly consider your information. GL
Be careful with this one for a a few reasons. I think you do an excellent job of analyzing but this one I leaned KC til I consider a few things. Mia has played well only not to finish, they wont go 0 for. They are close. 2. KC is on a 4 game streak playing well without key components but this one at only 4, and it has dropped fast from the original opening line, but smart money sees this as a possible slip up spot. I will be on Mia in this one. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, I hardly ever go against KC here but dont be surprised if MIA wins this outright.
Thanks for your hard work and input. I always highly consider your information. GL
You did make me second guess my self for a fews seconds. Nothing concrete enough to actually move off the play though...
BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by pkright:
Be careful with this one for a a few reasons. I think you do an excellent job of analyzing but this one I leaned KC til I consider a few things. Mia has played well only not to finish, they wont go 0 for. They are close. 2. KC is on a 4 game streak playing well without key components but this one at only 4, and it has dropped fast from the original opening line, but smart money sees this as a possible slip up spot. I will be on Mia in this one. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, I hardly ever go against KC here but dont be surprised if MIA wins this outright.
Thanks for your hard work and input. I always highly consider your information. GL
You did make me second guess my self for a fews seconds. Nothing concrete enough to actually move off the play though...
Be careful with this one for a a few reasons. I think you do an excellent job of analyzing but this one I leaned KC til I consider a few things. Mia has played well only not to finish, they wont go 0 for. They are close. 2. KC is on a 4 game streak playing well without key components but this one at only 4, and it has dropped fast from the original opening line, but smart money sees this as a possible slip up spot. I will be on Mia in this one. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, I hardly ever go against KC here but dont be surprised if MIA wins this outright.
Thanks for your hard work and input. I always highly consider your information. GL
Odds, good insight on your plays, but I'm thinking along the lines of pkright on this one. Why is the line only 4, given the records and site of the game, as well as KC's hot streak? Just doesn't add up. Last couple years, Miami has played pretty well on the road, but this year they're ofer with a push ATS. I would probably take KC if the line were closer to 7, but the lines-makers have me confused as hell. Like the other 2 a lot. BOL on your plays, but it's MIa or no play for me.
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Quote Originally Posted by pkright:
Be careful with this one for a a few reasons. I think you do an excellent job of analyzing but this one I leaned KC til I consider a few things. Mia has played well only not to finish, they wont go 0 for. They are close. 2. KC is on a 4 game streak playing well without key components but this one at only 4, and it has dropped fast from the original opening line, but smart money sees this as a possible slip up spot. I will be on Mia in this one. Arrowhead is a tough place to play, I hardly ever go against KC here but dont be surprised if MIA wins this outright.
Thanks for your hard work and input. I always highly consider your information. GL
Odds, good insight on your plays, but I'm thinking along the lines of pkright on this one. Why is the line only 4, given the records and site of the game, as well as KC's hot streak? Just doesn't add up. Last couple years, Miami has played pretty well on the road, but this year they're ofer with a push ATS. I would probably take KC if the line were closer to 7, but the lines-makers have me confused as hell. Like the other 2 a lot. BOL on your plays, but it's MIa or no play for me.
Odds, good insight on your plays, but I'm thinking along the lines of pkright on this one. Why is the line only 4, given the records and site of the game, as well as KC's hot streak? Just doesn't add up. Last couple years, Miami has played pretty well on the road, but this year they're ofer with a push ATS. I would probably take KC if the line were closer to 7, but the lines-makers have me confused as hell. Like the other 2 a lot. BOL on your plays, but it's MIa or no play for me.
They can be tricky SOB's. I try really hard not to let that affect my read on games. I would more than understand if many don't agree with my picks this week. It would only be a natural reaction to the shitfest i produced last week...
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Quote Originally Posted by WizrduvOdz:
Odds, good insight on your plays, but I'm thinking along the lines of pkright on this one. Why is the line only 4, given the records and site of the game, as well as KC's hot streak? Just doesn't add up. Last couple years, Miami has played pretty well on the road, but this year they're ofer with a push ATS. I would probably take KC if the line were closer to 7, but the lines-makers have me confused as hell. Like the other 2 a lot. BOL on your plays, but it's MIa or no play for me.
They can be tricky SOB's. I try really hard not to let that affect my read on games. I would more than understand if many don't agree with my picks this week. It would only be a natural reaction to the shitfest i produced last week...
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