Top play for me for this month is Ravens -9 for 5 units
Two 5-3 teams you wouldn't think a spread should be this high. But Denver's record is a bit of a mirage. They just beat two absolutely hapless injury decimated NFC South teams Saints and Panthers. Lost to the Chargers who can't score in the 2nd half vs anyone. Beat the Raiders and Jets who stink. And the one good win you could point to is Tampa Bay, but tbh I think that was partially due to the Bucs being flat as a pancake after getting the big playoff revenge win in Detroit.
The Ravens top ranked rush defense is going to be a tough matchup for Bo Nix. If he is forced to beat the Ravens with his arm, it is certainly possible because they have the worst NFL pass defense but rookies simply don't have much success playing in the Ravens home stadium. Jaylon Daniels for Washington is more nimble and a better passer than Nix too and has Mc Laurin and he couldn't win there either.
The Raiders were down 10 in the 4th quarter and won there due to a comedy of errors, stupid penalties and playcalls. But after that loss the Ravens went on a roll until last week, their 2nd straight road game.
They will be in a foul mood now coming home for the first time in a while and Denver's defensive stats are somewhat inflated IMO based on playing all these teams with bad offenses. They haven't played a dynamic QB like Lamar.
They also have to travel next week to Kansas City, the super bowl champs who also happen to be a division rival.. they're gonna crash down to earth during these two road games vs teams with good QBs, and likely get stomped on in one of them. If it doesn't happen today it will be next week.
The Browns made the Ravens defense look awful, but the Ravens also moved the ball well on a good Browns defense. Winston sparked them, it happens. They were desperate and Ravens were in 2nd road game spot also off a short week after a big Monday night win where Jackson had 5 TDs in Tampa. They still beat better teams than Denver who I don't think could beat Buffalo or the Commanders.
Denver doesn't have the big play capability to take advantage of the Baltimore secondary while Baltimore can put the top rated yards per completion defense to the test with their 2nd rated ypc offense which feeds off their top rated rushing offense. It's strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness in a lot of ways and both teams at 5-3 laying double digits seems a tall order, but rookies just don't win in Baltimore and the Ravens are in bounce back mode while Denver is hitting the toughest part of their schedule now.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Top play for me for this month is Ravens -9 for 5 units
Two 5-3 teams you wouldn't think a spread should be this high. But Denver's record is a bit of a mirage. They just beat two absolutely hapless injury decimated NFC South teams Saints and Panthers. Lost to the Chargers who can't score in the 2nd half vs anyone. Beat the Raiders and Jets who stink. And the one good win you could point to is Tampa Bay, but tbh I think that was partially due to the Bucs being flat as a pancake after getting the big playoff revenge win in Detroit.
The Ravens top ranked rush defense is going to be a tough matchup for Bo Nix. If he is forced to beat the Ravens with his arm, it is certainly possible because they have the worst NFL pass defense but rookies simply don't have much success playing in the Ravens home stadium. Jaylon Daniels for Washington is more nimble and a better passer than Nix too and has Mc Laurin and he couldn't win there either.
The Raiders were down 10 in the 4th quarter and won there due to a comedy of errors, stupid penalties and playcalls. But after that loss the Ravens went on a roll until last week, their 2nd straight road game.
They will be in a foul mood now coming home for the first time in a while and Denver's defensive stats are somewhat inflated IMO based on playing all these teams with bad offenses. They haven't played a dynamic QB like Lamar.
They also have to travel next week to Kansas City, the super bowl champs who also happen to be a division rival.. they're gonna crash down to earth during these two road games vs teams with good QBs, and likely get stomped on in one of them. If it doesn't happen today it will be next week.
The Browns made the Ravens defense look awful, but the Ravens also moved the ball well on a good Browns defense. Winston sparked them, it happens. They were desperate and Ravens were in 2nd road game spot also off a short week after a big Monday night win where Jackson had 5 TDs in Tampa. They still beat better teams than Denver who I don't think could beat Buffalo or the Commanders.
Denver doesn't have the big play capability to take advantage of the Baltimore secondary while Baltimore can put the top rated yards per completion defense to the test with their 2nd rated ypc offense which feeds off their top rated rushing offense. It's strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness in a lot of ways and both teams at 5-3 laying double digits seems a tall order, but rookies just don't win in Baltimore and the Ravens are in bounce back mode while Denver is hitting the toughest part of their schedule now.
Definitely a winnable game for this bad team who just had to endure a brutal road trip to Buffalo and then Detroit where they got basted in both. Gonna be sunny and warm in Nashville but also quite breezy. With that in mind and these two offenses the under is also in play. Tennessee has a good defense and I prefer Rudolph to Levis. Hopefully Tyler Boyd plays. Pats won last week despite Jets outgaining them by almost 100 yards. Titans can stifle them and win ugly.
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Titans -3.5
Definitely a winnable game for this bad team who just had to endure a brutal road trip to Buffalo and then Detroit where they got basted in both. Gonna be sunny and warm in Nashville but also quite breezy. With that in mind and these two offenses the under is also in play. Tennessee has a good defense and I prefer Rudolph to Levis. Hopefully Tyler Boyd plays. Pats won last week despite Jets outgaining them by almost 100 yards. Titans can stifle them and win ugly.
Wait and see if it goes up higher if you want. I know Carr is back for the Saints and Carolina is absolute trash but the Saints looked awful recently too and I'm not sure they should be favored by this much on the road vs anyone. I am surprised the line is this high I know NO was good at the start of the year but I still see this as two struggling teams in a divisional matchup so I'll take the generous spread.
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Speaking of ugly, here is my other one unit play:
Panthers +7.5
Wait and see if it goes up higher if you want. I know Carr is back for the Saints and Carolina is absolute trash but the Saints looked awful recently too and I'm not sure they should be favored by this much on the road vs anyone. I am surprised the line is this high I know NO was good at the start of the year but I still see this as two struggling teams in a divisional matchup so I'll take the generous spread.
Jags schedule from here on out is rough and I'll be fading them every week until Dougie gets sacked, which he will eventually. The Jags are just not a good team right now and the Linc will be rocking after no home games in a few weeks, the Birds defense has stepped up big time lately too.
Detroit vs GB Under 48.5
I think this division battle is not gonna be a shootout in Lambeau. Both teams have been good on 3rd down defense lately and it may be raining too.
Seahawks vs Rams Over 48
These teams usually play close games and I think both can stretch the field a bit vs each other with their WRs
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Evening slate:
Eagles -7
Jags schedule from here on out is rough and I'll be fading them every week until Dougie gets sacked, which he will eventually. The Jags are just not a good team right now and the Linc will be rocking after no home games in a few weeks, the Birds defense has stepped up big time lately too.
Detroit vs GB Under 48.5
I think this division battle is not gonna be a shootout in Lambeau. Both teams have been good on 3rd down defense lately and it may be raining too.
Seahawks vs Rams Over 48
These teams usually play close games and I think both can stretch the field a bit vs each other with their WRs
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