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***NFL WEEK 9 PLAYS***

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Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by James_Dean:



These are awesome finds PTB, thanks.  Looks like Detroit was already in this same situation already once this year against Tennessee as similar road favorites of -3.5.  I'll have to bet Jacksonville now for the third week in a row.


Jags are in a good spot to cover again..............the Lions already covered 3 straight after the bye & now its the Jags turn to cover 3 in a row after their bye.........................
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by perrytm86:

Hey prime wat do you think about this parlay in a 6-point teaser?

1. Washington over 40.5

2. Houston over 41.5

3.Carolina +9

4.Dallas+10

5.Pittsburgh+ 9

6.Jacksonville +9.5



Like the 4 straight plays in the teaser but dont have any opinions on totals because I dont play them much.................good luck..............
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by theKCco_op:


Somethings to think about for these match ups.  Posted this info in a couple other threads....

I placed a wager on the Steelers already +3.5 but they do tend to struggle against NFC teams on the road.  Since Tomlin took over they have beaten up on NFC teams at home going 8-1 SU ATS.  During that same period they 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS against NFC teams on the road, splitting the games each year going 1-1.  Their other NFC road match up this season takes them to Dallas in week 15.  

At first look I initially liked Dallas as a play as well for several of the reasons already listed above.  I have not played them straight up but did include them +10.5 in a teaser play.  

Upon second look check the Falcons results the week before they play the Saints.  

Atlanta's record the week before they play the Saints since Smith took over as head coach...

4-0 the past four meetings, 6-2 since Smith took over as HC. 

Falcons were swept by the Saints last year and in the second match up smoked 45-16.  They have shown to be focused and ready to play the week before they play the Saints.  I agree that Dallas is in a good spot and have things in their favor but considering the Falcons situation that might not be enough to make a standard play on Dallas.  Just another aspect to factor in this match up.

In the 2 games the Falcons lost previous to playing the Saints they went on to lose those match ups with NO.  In the other 6 wins previous to playing the Saints the Falcons have followed those wins up with a 2-4 SU ATS record the next week vs. NO.

Something to look at for week 10 is if Atlanta wins or loses this match up with Dallas.  If they lose straight up to Dallas then history leans with them losing @ NO in week 10.  If the Falcons win and cover vs Dallas then I would look to play on the Falcons when they visit NO, especially since that would be their first meeting since getting swept last year and the embarrassment in week 16. 



The Eagles play the Cowboys next week.............the Saints play the Falcons................I have the Saints & Falcons losing this week & the Eagles & Dallas winning.................a 4-4 Dallas vs a 4-4 Eagles looks like the way to go since they will be fighting each other & the winner will go over .500...................very interesting week.................

Even if the Falcons lose this week, they will destroy the Saints next week......................

We could also have the Falcons win but not cover this week..............Dallas loses SU, the Eagles win & Dallas goes into Philly next week & wins...................so many scenarios....................


I like Dallas to cover & will sprinkle some on the ML as well...............the Eagles look primed to win after they let everyone & their mother down last week & now you have people calling for Vicks job & saying they wont bet the Eagles again, LoL..............perfect time to bet on the Eagles!
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by AGENT-004:


Nothing better to do than take up post space Agent-004? 
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Here is a system favoring the Ravens & since I posted it 2 weeks ago, i will post it again:


Play on a division road favorite off a bye week:  20-3 ATS since 2002, (1-0 ATS this season).........................


This game has me confused................hence me buying back!

I'm confused. I thought you bought out yours Ravens play and switched to Brown? 
 
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Posted: #106
In recent years I believe the Cowboys excel in November. I'll have to check on that.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by HookEmHorns22:


I'm confused. I thought you bought out yours Ravens play and switched to Brown? 


I bought out of my Ravens play but im not playing anything extra on the Browns...............I have 2 systems favoring the Browns & one favoring the Ravens so I will take the loss on the juice............I know the Ravens need this game badly but they also have the division lead, so..............they could win by 3, & if so, I will push on 1 bet & win the other, I will take that if it comes down to it. If not, I will take the loss on the juice.................
 
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Posted: #108
Romos record in November is 19-2 straight up.
 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:

Romos record in November is 19-2 straight up.



.............................
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:

 

it does...but i think this game is a coin flipped. gun to my head..i'll take the home dog, ravens got rolled pretty hard and they beat kc on the road by how many pts? ya...go look at that.

i am laying off this game, but just giving my insight. gl

Sure, I see your logic. Good luck on the weekend

 
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Posted: #111

[Quote: Originally Posted by James_Dean]

Giants are also 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU in their last 4 games right after playing the Cowboys.
[/Quote

I don't have those numbers. I've got ATS 1-3 and SUP 2-2 but with the ATS numbers it all comes down to the closing number.

 
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Posted: #112

Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:

In recent years I believe the Cowboys excel in November. I'll have to check on that.

If you go back far enough the numbers look good but I ran a query from the 2010 season until now and it ends up ATS 4-4

 
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Posted: #113

Romo was the QB in November 2006 and since then ...

SUP 21-5
ATS 17-9

Since 2010 ...

SUP 6-2
ATS 4-4

You know I ran it again as DOG in November and it came up ...

SUP 2-3
ATS 3-2

Maybe Romo didn't play in all these games. Injuries ... who knows?

 
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Posted: #114
Romo was hurt back in 2010
 
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Posted: #115
PTB how can I get a hold of you via your user's space? If you want, we could swap some system plays. If not, no big deal. Good Luck
 
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Posted: #116
Best of luck PTB. I find the haters entertaining. If you don't like PTB and his picks why continue to post negativity it's just a waste of your time. Learn from the cappers wins and losses and try to excel and beat the real enemies folks....we all here to try and make
 
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Posted: #117
Here is a trend for the Thursday night game............I myself wont be playing it the Thursday night game:



The Chargers are 1-11 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU non-division favorite loss.....................(take the Chiefs +8)
 
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Posted: #118
Prime do you have a nice 7 pick parlay
no overs or money lines I noe its hard
But I will work from there
 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



Like the 4 straight plays in the teaser but dont have any opinions on totals because I dont play them much.................good luck..............

Thanks prime...really appreciate it!

 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by DRE-DAY:

Prime do you have a nice 7 pick parlay
no overs or money lines I noe its hard
But I will work from there


Cards +11
Bengals +3.5
Jaguars +3.5
Titans +3.5
Steelers +3.5
Dallas +4
Eagles +3



Im looking for at least 10 out of 14 dogs to cover this week................last week it was 8 dogs & 6 favs & the road teams have been covering at a crazy number past several weeks.

Road favs are 7-1 SU & ATS past 2 weeks..............that will change this week.............im thinking 2 road favs & 3 home dogs.
 
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Posted: #121
7 team parlay:



Chargers ML (-350), Bengals ML (+165), Texans ML (-525), Jags +3.5 (-110), Titans ML (+165), Tampa ML (+100), Steelers ML (+155).................$500 to win $51,826.74



Tampa ML (+100)  $1,000 to win $1,000
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:

Quote Originally Posted by James_Dean:



Giants are also 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU in their last 4 games right after playing the Cowboys.
[/Quote

I don't have those numbers. I've got ATS 1-3 and SUP 2-2 but with the ATS numbers it all comes down to the closing number.



Shiva, 

Make sure your system isn't including the Seattle game from 2010 which the Giants had a bye week in between their Dallas game.  Here's what I've got;


2012 vs. Tampa Bay W41-34 L-9
2011 vs. Washington L10-23 L-5.5
2010 @ Philly L17-27  L+3.5
2009 vs. Philly L38-45 L+1

1-3 SU 0-4 ATS
 
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Posted: #123
Buying out of the Broncos wager as well.................hopefully they win by 3...................


Bengals +3.5 (-110)  $1,100 to win $1,000




Have a feeling the Bengals win SU.....................
 
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Posted: #124
+$1,800 last week.....................roll sitting at $31,800...........(-$30k for the year but gonna win it all back, stay tuned)

Updated wagers:


Ravens -3 (-120)   $1,200 to win $1,000  

Browns +3.5 (-110)  $1,100 to win $1,000  (bought out of Ravens play)

Panthers +3.5 (-110)  $1,100 to win $1,000

Broncos -3 (-120)   $1,200 to win $1,000

Bengals +3.5 (-110)  $1,100 to win $1,000  (bought out of my Broncos wager)

Cowboys +4.5 (-110)  $2,200 to win $2,000  (will also play the ML)

Eagles +3.5 (-110)   $2,200 to win $2,000  (will also play the ML)

Colts +2.5 (-110)  $1,100 to win $1,000  (will also play the ML)

Steelers +3.5 (-110)  $3,300 to win $3,000  (will also play the ML)

Jaguars +3.5 (-110)   $2,200 to win $2,000

Titans +3 (+110)  $1,000 to win $1,100

Tampa ML (+100)  $1,000 to win $1,000



 
 
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Posted: #125
3 team 10 point teasers:


Colts +12.5, Cowboys +14.5, Steelers +13.5..................$2,400 to win $2,000

Cowboys +14.5, Eagles +13, Steelers +13.5...................$2,400 to win $2,000



5 team parlay:

49ers ML (-300) (Monday night), Colts +3 (-135), Ravens -3 (-135), Dallas +4.5 (-110), (open spot will be filled with Steelers ML)..................$500 to win $6,862.58.............if this parlay wins, it will pay more because the payout is assuming the 5th team will be -110..................


3 team parlay:

49ers -6.5 (-125) (Monday night), Steelers +3 (+100), Dallas +4 (-110)...............$1,000 to win $5,872.73   (when the Steelers do win, I will hedge by playing an 8 point teaser with Falcons & Eagles)


7 team parlay:



Chargers ML (-350), Bengals ML (+165), Texans ML (-525), Jags +3.5 (-110), Titans ML (+165), Tampa ML (+100), Steelers ML (+155).................$500 to win $51,826.74


7 team parlay:


Chargers ML (-350), Bengals ML (+165), Texans ML (-525), Jags +3.5 (-110), Bears ML (-195), Tampa ML (+100), Steelers ML (+155)..............$500 to win $29,372.06   (took the Bears in this parlay even tho I like the Titans)




Long shot 6 team ML parlay of the week:


Cards ML (+450), Panthers ML (+155), Seattle ML (-230), Tampa ML (+100), Steelers ML (+155), Eagles ML (+155)..............$200 to win $52,139.47

Yes I know, its a huge long shot to have the Cards go into Gbay & win but if they did it to the Patriots in New England, anything is possible................







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