I can't believe this spread is up to +4.5. Last week the Dolphins were missing key offensive players and were an extremely popular pick against the Bills and this week when those players are coming back, and everyone is on the Chiefs. Seems like they've been written off after one game. I get a few key defensive players are out, but at +4.5 lays value. Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes and Travis Kelce looks like a shell of his former self. Phins finally play competitive in the cold or keep it close.
I can't believe this spread is up to +4.5. Last week the Dolphins were missing key offensive players and were an extremely popular pick against the Bills and this week when those players are coming back, and everyone is on the Chiefs. Seems like they've been written off after one game. I get a few key defensive players are out, but at +4.5 lays value. Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes and Travis Kelce looks like a shell of his former self. Phins finally play competitive in the cold or keep it close.
Flacco's passing prop opened at 260 and got bet up to 270 quickly. Flacco is averaging 322 passing yards per game and recently threw for 368 against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. I'm expecting him to air it out and have a lot of passing yards like his prop suggests. Cooper had 265 yards receiving in that game and I expect a little more defensive attention to go his way. This should open up his #2 target to see a couple extra looks. Texans give up 60 yards per game against tight ends, and 10 times this season have surrendered 50+ yards. The Flacco connection with Njoku stems from the Browns inability to run the ball with a banged up offensive line, and quick dump passes where Njoku gains yards after catch like a freight train. The Texans have a stout run defense so I can see the Browns struggling on the ground like usual and having to pass more often (Stefanski's usual game script). I also like that the Texans applied the 4th most pressures to qbs this season and this supports more of the quick passes to Njoku. Finally, the Texans pass defense is not that great and Flacco will be flinging it all day.
Flacco's passing prop opened at 260 and got bet up to 270 quickly. Flacco is averaging 322 passing yards per game and recently threw for 368 against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. I'm expecting him to air it out and have a lot of passing yards like his prop suggests. Cooper had 265 yards receiving in that game and I expect a little more defensive attention to go his way. This should open up his #2 target to see a couple extra looks. Texans give up 60 yards per game against tight ends, and 10 times this season have surrendered 50+ yards. The Flacco connection with Njoku stems from the Browns inability to run the ball with a banged up offensive line, and quick dump passes where Njoku gains yards after catch like a freight train. The Texans have a stout run defense so I can see the Browns struggling on the ground like usual and having to pass more often (Stefanski's usual game script). I also like that the Texans applied the 4th most pressures to qbs this season and this supports more of the quick passes to Njoku. Finally, the Texans pass defense is not that great and Flacco will be flinging it all day.
Prop #2 (Amon St. Brown 87.5 receiving yards OVER)
I expect this game to be high scoring and these are the type of games I like betting receiving props on. Goff's passing prop is set at 260.5 and Stafford at 276.5, applying more of a shoutout. Sam LaPorta is out for the game and Amon St. Brown's numbers increase when LaPorta is off the field. St. Brown's YPPR increases to 3.24 with LaPorta off the field, and the only other WR with a YPRR above 3.24 this year is Tyreek Hill. The Rams mostly use zone-coverage defensively and this is where St. Brown thrives as well. I also forgot to mention in my last post for Njoku that both these games are in domes, which favors a higher scoring total. I expect a close game and Goff will rely on his #1 targeted receiver like he has in in clutch moments all year.
Prop #2 (Amon St. Brown 87.5 receiving yards OVER)
I expect this game to be high scoring and these are the type of games I like betting receiving props on. Goff's passing prop is set at 260.5 and Stafford at 276.5, applying more of a shoutout. Sam LaPorta is out for the game and Amon St. Brown's numbers increase when LaPorta is off the field. St. Brown's YPPR increases to 3.24 with LaPorta off the field, and the only other WR with a YPRR above 3.24 this year is Tyreek Hill. The Rams mostly use zone-coverage defensively and this is where St. Brown thrives as well. I also forgot to mention in my last post for Njoku that both these games are in domes, which favors a higher scoring total. I expect a close game and Goff will rely on his #1 targeted receiver like he has in in clutch moments all year.
Prop #2 (Amon St. Brown 87.5 receiving yards OVER)
I expect this game to be high scoring and these are the type of games I like betting receiving props on. Goff's passing prop is set at 260.5 and Stafford at 276.5, applying more of a shoutout. Sam LaPorta is out for the game and Amon St. Brown's numbers increase when LaPorta is off the field. St. Brown's YPPR increases to 3.24 with LaPorta off the field, and the only other WR with a YPRR above 3.24 this year is Tyreek Hill. The Rams mostly use zone-coverage defensively and this is where St. Brown thrives as well. I also forgot to mention in my last post for Njoku that both these games are in domes, which favors a higher scoring total. I expect a close game and Goff will rely on his #1 targeted receiver like he has in in clutch moments all year.
Prop #2 (Amon St. Brown 87.5 receiving yards OVER)
I expect this game to be high scoring and these are the type of games I like betting receiving props on. Goff's passing prop is set at 260.5 and Stafford at 276.5, applying more of a shoutout. Sam LaPorta is out for the game and Amon St. Brown's numbers increase when LaPorta is off the field. St. Brown's YPPR increases to 3.24 with LaPorta off the field, and the only other WR with a YPRR above 3.24 this year is Tyreek Hill. The Rams mostly use zone-coverage defensively and this is where St. Brown thrives as well. I also forgot to mention in my last post for Njoku that both these games are in domes, which favors a higher scoring total. I expect a close game and Goff will rely on his #1 targeted receiver like he has in in clutch moments all year.
With Goffs security blanket LaPorta out you know who is gonna get special attention double coverage here. Be careful is all I am saying with this prop, WHEN IT SEEMS 2 GOOD 2 BE TRUE, IT'S BECAUSE IT WAS.
"At 50, everyone has the face they deserve" -George Orwell
With Goffs security blanket LaPorta out you know who is gonna get special attention double coverage here. Be careful is all I am saying with this prop, WHEN IT SEEMS 2 GOOD 2 BE TRUE, IT'S BECAUSE IT WAS.
@MrFreedo With Goffs security blanket LaPorta out you know who is gonna get special attention double coverage here. Be careful is all I am saying with this prop, WHEN IT SEEMS 2 GOOD 2 BE TRUE, IT'S BECAUSE IT WAS.
@DoYouMind69
Right on. This is kind of why I like Njoku instead of Cooper on my other prop post. Sometimes the #2 option is the better choice. I thought about this too, but I like that the Rams have only used man coverage 15% of the time defensively this year. No playoff team has a lower rate. Hopefully the Rams run defense stays great too...
@MrFreedo With Goffs security blanket LaPorta out you know who is gonna get special attention double coverage here. Be careful is all I am saying with this prop, WHEN IT SEEMS 2 GOOD 2 BE TRUE, IT'S BECAUSE IT WAS.
@DoYouMind69
Right on. This is kind of why I like Njoku instead of Cooper on my other prop post. Sometimes the #2 option is the better choice. I thought about this too, but I like that the Rams have only used man coverage 15% of the time defensively this year. No playoff team has a lower rate. Hopefully the Rams run defense stays great too...
Props were spot on 2-0. I cashed out of my Steelers bet and now am on the Bills -10. The wind looks to be under 10 mph (some gusts though) and no snow or precipitation. The wind currently appears to be less as the game goes on. I really liked the Steelers in 40+ winds when the Bills may have had trouble throwing the ball. Seems like it could of been a low scoring game with a low total where the points were at a premium. I know longer feel that is the case, and I'm not sure how the Steelers will keep up plain and simple.
Props were spot on 2-0. I cashed out of my Steelers bet and now am on the Bills -10. The wind looks to be under 10 mph (some gusts though) and no snow or precipitation. The wind currently appears to be less as the game goes on. I really liked the Steelers in 40+ winds when the Bills may have had trouble throwing the ball. Seems like it could of been a low scoring game with a low total where the points were at a premium. I know longer feel that is the case, and I'm not sure how the Steelers will keep up plain and simple.
I like the Eagles to win this game and I believe this correlates to them having success on the ground. The Buccaneers have a stout run defense but I think the Eagles will win the TOP game and then pound the rock. With Hurts hand banged up and no AJ Brown I think they try and establish the run game a bit more. The Eagles pass defense hasn’t been great but they apply pressure to the qb at a high rate. Baker Mayfield consistently gets rattled under pressure and is notorious for being a 3 and out qb, with his team punting more. I feel this complements the Eagles winning the TOP game and running the ball more. Swift has silently had a good season rushing for over 1,000 yards at 4.6 ypc. He’s also had 2 weeks off to rest for this game.
I like the Eagles to win this game and I believe this correlates to them having success on the ground. The Buccaneers have a stout run defense but I think the Eagles will win the TOP game and then pound the rock. With Hurts hand banged up and no AJ Brown I think they try and establish the run game a bit more. The Eagles pass defense hasn’t been great but they apply pressure to the qb at a high rate. Baker Mayfield consistently gets rattled under pressure and is notorious for being a 3 and out qb, with his team punting more. I feel this complements the Eagles winning the TOP game and running the ball more. Swift has silently had a good season rushing for over 1,000 yards at 4.6 ypc. He’s also had 2 weeks off to rest for this game.
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