NFL Wk2 Picks and Why

I had no posted picks week 1.   We now have current data along with current opening lines.    Let's look at some numbers:

       TB   16 4 20 14 24 29

-6   Dtrt   7 13 8 31  3 21

Dtrt opens up as 6 pt fav (madduxsports.com), currently  7.5  .   Dtrt is better in rushing off 7 vs 16; TB is better in Passing off 4 vs 13; Dtrt is better in Def rushing 8 vs 20; TB is better in Passing def 14 vs 31; Dtrt is better in Sagarin rank and sched strength.      

When i look at scenarios where this is the combination along with an opening line - I think TB covers and strong upset possibility.    

My Plays thru 1 pm:

1.   TB +7.5    

2.  LAC/Caro   under 39   

3. Dallas -6.5

4. Nyg  +2  

5. Balti -8.5

Good luck all

@TheBuddah

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks bud and back at ya - have a great season.

@TheBuddah

 Are those stats adjusted in any way to account for who those teams played in week 1? 

@Yanasaur

 No adjustments to the first 4 columns raw data from ESPN via NFL network  Sagarins numbers are rank and sched strength. Numbers listed on their sites, I make no adjustments to the numbers.      

@Yanasaur

 just to clarify - by including sched strength and looking at the opening lines (oddsmakers most likely take those things into account).   Nobody in here knows exactly what the weights are that go into the opening line but i'm pretty sure sched strength is one of them.    Have a great season

Nice Card @ TheBuddah.

I like LAC /Panthers Under 39. too.

Got a feeling that most of games today, would be on UNDERS game totals sides. Since Dolphins only scored 10 points.

Good Luck.

Good luck today buddah

Looks good enough to tail

But not this week for me.  I'm on a mission for myself n next time I'll tail you some 

@Back2theTop999

 the line opened at 41 and dropped to 39 - typically low scoring in this situation - hoping that is the case today.

@Moku_weena

 Back at ya bud

@nfl_brosuf

 You do you and BOL

@CCO687

 Thanks and back at ya bud 

Gotta love a run-off- come on TB!!!

GL  on your plays @TheBuddah

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac and back at ya

Adding :

6.  Az -1   

Good luck all

@TheBuddah

 play #6   correction should be AZ  +1

Adding:

7. Kc -6  (-119)

8. Pitt  -3  (-102)

We went 4-4, let's see if we can make it a winning record by getting the game tonite.   Let's look at some numbers:

         Atl    10 26 20 5 21 22

-4.5  Phi     9 6 26  26   6  8

Phi opened at -4.5, currently -5.5 (madduxsports.com)  .      Phi is better in Off rushing at 9 vs 10;   Off passing 6 vs 26;  Atl is better in Def rushing at 20 vs 26; Def passing at 5 vs 26;  Phi has a better sagarin rank at 6 vs 21 and better sched strength at 8 vs 22.    

When you have this situation, where the away team is better in rushing def and passing def and the home team if better in all other categories, and the opening line is 4.5 points, what does history tell us; I looked at data and found we had to similar situations Phi vs Kc and Kc took it 20-27 (covered) and Oak vs Kc 15-26  (covered) .  Both games went under the total.     

My Play:

9.    Phi -5 (-112)   

The line on tonites o/u is currently 46.5 - may be close to the number, going to let that go.    Let's go Eagles !!!!!     Good luck all  

@TheBuddah

@TheBuddah

Good luck I didn't let go of that total in fact I pounded it.  Hope we both win 

@FelixFermin21

 Back at ya bud.

@LAGameofInches

 I let it go due to the fact one of my historical points the ;ine was 47.5 and they scored a total of 47, this game opened at 48.5 - now 46.5 - BOL to ya bud

Phi huh?  

I'll tail you some

We ride or die broke 

@nfl_brosuf

 All life is - a choice and a consequence -good luck bud

Don't good luck me.  Good skills to you because luck is overrated.

Against the rest, we ride alone n stop betting on junk teams.  

@nfl_brosuf

 lol okay bud