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NFL_Sharp Week 12 Picks and Rankings (21-9-1, 70% YTD, 7-0-1 LW)

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Posted: #26
Anything on NE/NYJ game.
 
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Posted: #27
Adding Buffalo +3 (-120) for 2 units

I'm guessing this line could be had at a better price at some point before game time, but I'm going to lock it in now just in case.

Updated Week 12 Card:

2** Baltimore PK (-120)
2** Seattle -2.5 (-130)
2** Buffalo +3 (-120)
St Louis +3 (-120)
Washington +3.5 (-115)
Atlanta/Tampa Bay Over 48.5
Houston/Detroit Over 49
Washington/Dallas Under 48

Will likely have one more add before Sunday.  Built up a lot of juice on this card - I don't plan on doing that in the future.  Need to get updated and have bets placed quicker.  Good luck to everyone this weekend.


Area51 - Sorry, I didn't see your post until now.  I had NE with a clear advantage in the passing game and turnovers but a slight edge to the Jets in the run game.  Not significant enough to bet either way.  My projected score was 28-17 NE.


 
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Posted: #28
NY Giants is the best bet on the board to me.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by EastOakland:

NY Giants is the best bet on the board to me.

My projections are pretty similar for both sides in this one.  Advantage to the Pack throwing it and NYG running it.  Pack advantage is bigger than the Giants'.  I have the Giants' D with 2.3 sacks and the Pack D with 1.8, though, plus the Giants coming off a bye week.  I think the final will fall right around 3, so not a big enough edge either way to bet in my opinion.  Under looks a lot better than either side to me - I have the final projected at 19-17 Green Bay.  
 
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Posted: #30
Sharp...which is a stronger play for you, Bills or Seahawks? Thanks.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by yamda:

Sharp...which is a stronger play for you, Bills or Seahawks? Thanks.

Seattle
 
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Posted: #33
 
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Posted: #34
think he's only been posting for 2-3 weeks since he was 7-0-1 last week
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by QMICH:

SO IT IS WEEK 12 AND YOU ARE Overall: 21-9-1, +16.85 units BUT ARE MAKING 8 PLAYS TODAY.  IS THAT CORRECT?

Not too bright, are we?   Three of the plays were from the other day.  
 
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Posted: #36

you can laugh but add this to the rankings-last 3 weeks ATS records and looks to me like the top teams would have made you plentty of money and the bottom would have burned it, no?

the NFL is a totally what have you done to me lately league-I'd be interested in a ranking of Turnover ratio and 3rd down effeciency for the last 3 weeks if you have time...those stats tell  a lot, right NE?

Remember the Chargers crushed Balto in a similar spot last year-emphasize crushed...

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:


My projections are pretty similar for both sides in this one.  Advantage to the Pack throwing it and NYG running it.  Pack advantage is bigger than the Giants'.  I have the Giants' D with 2.3 sacks and the Pack D with 1.8, though, plus the Giants coming off a bye week.  I think the final will fall right around 3, so not a big enough edge either way to bet in my opinion.  Under looks a lot better than either side to me - I have the final projected at 19-17 Green Bay.  

I really give a big advantage to NYG for the simple fact that they were tired and got blew out by the Bengals and now they are playing an important game comming off a bye well rested. Sometimes this team is slugish, but in important games they step up to the plate and play well. Last year GB had absolutely no answer for the Giants and that was at home in the playoffs. Today, they will have no answer for Eli and company. I also see this game going under, but more like 24-14 NYG.

 
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Posted: #39
is this the guy that lost in a bet rk  capper or what ever if so i like the new name always enjoyed your picks
 
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Posted: #40
Adding Cincinnati -7 (115) for 2 units

Like the Broncos too but won't bet it at -10 or more.  This is the final addition.  Good luck to everyone this week.
 
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Posted: #41
Thanks guys.  Good luck to you all today as well.

Yea, I've only been posting since around week 8 I believe..

EastOakland - I can't make a decision either way in that one.  Should be close - I'll be interested to see how it turns out.

poolman - Not sure what you're talking about.  I've never posted here before..
 
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Posted: #42
5-4 overall for week 12 (3-3 today) - a bit disappointing.


Updated Overall Record:

Sides: 23-10-1 (69.7%, +17.05 units)
Totals: 3-3 (50%, -.3 units)
Overall: 26-13-1 (66.7%, +16.65 units)

I expect the sides percentage to be 72.8% or higher (with 95% confidence) and the totals to be at least 61.4% (with 95% confidence).  Had too much juice today - will try and get the bets placed sooner for week 12 to reduce that.

No play for tonight's game, but I do really like the under.  I have the scored projected at 19-17 Green Bay, but have 4.1 projected sacks for the game.  I don't bet unders with less than 5 sacks projected.  But I do still like it a lot.  No opinion on the side - think this one will be within a touchdown to either side, so I'm not touching it.
 
 
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Posted: #43
Hey Sharp... You have Panthers ranked 9 and eagles ranked 31... I agree the Eaglea are awful but just wanna know why you didn't lock in Panthers as one of your picks... -2.5 to be honest seems too good to be true. Eagles without McCoy, Vick, and avant... Panthers have had a very tough road schedule and have played some very good teams real close, including beating Washington by 8 two weeks ago.. Thoughts about this matchup?
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