I expect the sides percentage to rise above 67.2% at 95% confidence. The totals should hit over 58% at 95% confidence.
Week 16 Card
2** Seattle PK (-105)
Chicago -5
Cleveland +14 (-120)
Philadelphia +4.5
That's it for now. Cleveland should be fine all the way down to +10.5. There will definitely be at least a couple more to come during the week. Rankings and projections should be up by tomorrow night. Hope everyone had a good weekend and Monday night.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Overall Record: 42-23-2 (64.6%, +27.35 units)
Sides: 35-18-2 (66.0%, +25.25 units)
Totals: 7-5 (58.3%, +2.5 units)
I expect the sides percentage to rise above 67.2% at 95% confidence. The totals should hit over 58% at 95% confidence.
Week 16 Card
2** Seattle PK (-105)
Chicago -5
Cleveland +14 (-120)
Philadelphia +4.5
That's it for now. Cleveland should be fine all the way down to +10.5. There will definitely be at least a couple more to come during the week. Rankings and projections should be up by tomorrow night. Hope everyone had a good weekend and Monday night.
Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
Looking forward to some totals if you have them?
Best
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Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
i'm not sure a bell curve distribution is a good way to describe one's confidence level when it comes to nfl -)
i see the general idea this week it to oppose good teams coming off big wins and to back free-falling teams. Makes sense, i suppose.
hard to argue with your record, though.. looking forward to your projections (for my money the best starting point)
GL 2 all
I'd like to group separate categories together and have separate confidence levels for each - but I don't have enough observations to do that. However, because spreads are expected to hit around 50% for dogs and faves in the long run, I feel completely comfortable using a binomial approximation, given the number of trials I have. Not enough totals plays to generate similar expectations, so those are analysed differently, not approximated normally.
As far as backing free-falling teams, there is absolutely no subjective angle or personal opinion behind these plays. I guarantee that every single one is completely objective, based on the underlying stats - I just post what the program says (although I have added a few that were so close to being official plays, I chose to count them as such). This is another reason why I'm comfortable with my expectations - there is no human bias - these are 100% repeatable in exactly the same way.
Good luck this week. Projections will be up in a minute.
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Quote Originally Posted by tuco:
i'm not sure a bell curve distribution is a good way to describe one's confidence level when it comes to nfl -)
i see the general idea this week it to oppose good teams coming off big wins and to back free-falling teams. Makes sense, i suppose.
hard to argue with your record, though.. looking forward to your projections (for my money the best starting point)
GL 2 all
I'd like to group separate categories together and have separate confidence levels for each - but I don't have enough observations to do that. However, because spreads are expected to hit around 50% for dogs and faves in the long run, I feel completely comfortable using a binomial approximation, given the number of trials I have. Not enough totals plays to generate similar expectations, so those are analysed differently, not approximated normally.
As far as backing free-falling teams, there is absolutely no subjective angle or personal opinion behind these plays. I guarantee that every single one is completely objective, based on the underlying stats - I just post what the program says (although I have added a few that were so close to being official plays, I chose to count them as such). This is another reason why I'm comfortable with my expectations - there is no human bias - these are 100% repeatable in exactly the same way.
Good luck this week. Projections will be up in a minute.
Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
Looking forward to some totals if you have them?
Best
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
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Quote Originally Posted by InVegas:
Sharp, thanks for posting early. Like Seattle and Cleveland... but have a hard time backing a turnover machine like Philly (truly pathetic with no heart once things go bad.)... and Chicago - I think they win - but AZ stays close throughout.
Looking forward to some totals if you have them?
Best
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
Much appreciated. Thanks
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Quote Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:
Not a single total this week. A few strong leans (NYJ Under, GB Under, Jac Over, KC Under, Phi Under, Bal Over), but won't have any official plays. Good luck this week.
I think the Eagles are a good play this week - Possibly Andy Reids final home game, McCoy back, playing spoiler, skin's oline has injury issues for the first time this season.
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I think the Eagles are a good play this week - Possibly Andy Reids final home game, McCoy back, playing spoiler, skin's oline has injury issues for the first time this season.
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