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#1
Niners @ Falcons: Leaning Falcons
I'm on the side of the bird here. Let's see.. Falcons: one of the surging teams in the leaguing vying for a playoff spot. Niners: one of the worst, if not THE worst, teams in the league. The Falcons are coming off a massive beat down on the Rams. Sure, even if the Rams tanked that game due to issues revolving Fisher, let's not pretend the Rams had to TRY HARD to tank. Tank or not, it doesn't negate the fact that Ryan had a huge game throwing for 237 yards and 3 touchdowns in 3 quarters. Their defense produced three fumbles, two interceptions, and two touchdowns. They have momentum going back home playing against ANOTHER horrendous team.
Look, if you're in the hunt for a playoff spot right now as so many teams are such as the Texans, Titans, Packers, Bucs, Giants, playing the Rams and Niners back to back, during this time of year, is a GIFT FROM THE HEAVENS! We know the Falcons aren't losing this game, it's just a matter of how bad they will beat them. So let's go to the other side.
Who do the Niners have to stay competitive on O or D in this game? Absolutely no one. This team is so below average, its almost sad. There's almost literally nothing I can say about this team because they are just so bad on all sides of the ball. This is THE worst rushing defense in the league allowing 170 rushing yards to opponents. And now you're playing a team who has not just one, but TWO stellar RBs in Freeman and Coleman. Both of whom can beat you can on the ground and from the air. The Niners also give up a whopping 400 yards on defense, good enough for worst in the league. Hyde is their best player, but he is too heavily depended on. With the Falcons defensive line getting stronger by the week, I don't see him having too big of a game. If the Falcons can focus on stopping the run, the Niners will be in for a long day.
And to top it all off? The Niners will be without their starting center, Daniel Kilgore, as he's just been placed on IR from his injury vs. the Jets. I know what you're going to say, "Well, he hasn't really been playing all that well this year, anyway." You are correct. But listen, this guy has been starting all year for them. Clearly, he is the best option they have. And now? They have to start Marcus Martin. You could look at it this way. In OT vs the Jets, the niners go for it on 4th and 1. Carlos Hyde up the middle for no gain resulting in turnover on downs leading to a Jets win. Perhaps, it would've been a different outcome had they had Kilmore in their with the familiarity of the offense and the trust of the QB/RB. The Niners will also be without TE Vance McDonald who was placed on the IR too. No new news on Torrey Smith, as of today, but he is unlikely to play after suffering a concussion vs. the Jets.
Now I know this Atlanta defense isn't the best either, but when you have the likes of Vic Beasley and Robert Alford starting to mesh and playing well. That is a dangerous thing. Add in the emergence of rookie Deion Jones (who was limited in practice today, but the team expects him to play). From what I've seen, this kid is still raw, but boy can he play football.
Listen, I know the Falcons haven't been playing as well at home as they do on the road this year, but the niners have been blown out by 20 or more in all, but two of their road games which were against mediocre teams in the Cardinals and Dolphins.
But look, here's the thing: The Bucs and Falcons are both 8-5. They both are 3-1 in the division. And they are 1-1 head to head this season. Now, they both play two more division games each. In weeks 16 & 17, the Falcons play at Panthers and hosts the Saints. In weeks 16 & 17, the Bucs play at Saints and hosts the Panthers. These will be tough games so it is entirely possible that the Falcons and Bucs win both of these, lose both of these or split these games.
Having said that, let's go with the very real possibility that at the end of the season, the Falcons and Bucs records stay the same, that their division records stay the same and of course they are still at 1-1 head to head. The next tiebreaker is the records vs opponents it has in common with the other team. As of now, the Falcons are 6-3 against opponents it has in common with the Bucs. The Bucs are 5-4 in such games. In week 7, the Bucs beat the Niners 34-17. So not to anyone's surprise, but this game is a MUST WIN. Both teams are still very much in the race for a first round bye and this is the tiebreaker that will likely decide who gets the division.
Overall, the niners just do not have enough to stay competitive in this game. Even with Julio out. The injury he suffered is NOT turf toe, but a toe sprain so there may be a slight possibility he does play. But again with or without him, I do not see the niners staying close in this one.
Last but not least, the sweet revenge angle. Anyone recall what happened the last time these two teams faced off in the Georgia Dome? Let me tell you.
Sunday, January 20th, 2013 in the 2012 NFC Championship game. The Falcons up 17-0 well on their way to their second Super Bowl in franchise history and a solid shot to win it all. They're up 24-14 at the half. Then they completely blew it. Letting Frank Gore score the only points of the 2nd half and lose the game 28-24, at home, in the NFC Championship, against a second year quarterback by the name of Colin Kaepernick. Now I know that both rosters are quite different today than they were four years ago. No Frank Gore for the Niners. No Tony Gonzales or Mike Smith for the Falcons. BUT you better believe that Matty Ice hasn't forgotten that game. He will get his sweet revenge and perhaps blow Kaep out of the water. Side note: you'd still better believe that Dan Quinn would like to finally get his first win against the team he started his pro coaching career with and spent more than five years with after coming one point short last year.
Well, there you have it folks. Those are my thoughts on this game.
I haven't placed any bets yet, but leaning strongly on Falcons -14. I'll continue watching the line movement and see where the money goes, but I am really like this play.
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