CD Newsletter Week 18

Browns @ Ravens (-17.5)

Ravens are currently in the driver's seat to win the AFC North. The only way they can lose hold of the lead is if they lose to the Browns and the Steelers beat the Bengals. I could see the latter possibly happening, but I doubt the Ravens lose this game. Whether they cover the large chalk is another question. Either way, the Ravens should end the season as the champs of their division.

Bengals (-1.5) @ Steelers

Basically what I wrote above applies to the Steelers. They need to beat the Bengals, but also hope the Browns pull off a win against the Ravens. Now the Bengals have an outside shot here to make the playoffs. Not only do they need to beat the Bengals, but they have to rely on the Broncos losing to (possibly) the Chiefs backups and also need the Dolphins to lose to the Jets. I can see the latter happening (warm weather team flying into New Jersey to play in the cold). It's a good thing that this game is on earlier in the day. The Bengals will have to play like the Chiefs will win to get their motivation up.

Saints @ Buccaneers (-13.5)

The Buccs have taken over the NFC South lead. Because they lost both games to the Falcons, they'll have to finish the season with a better record than the Falcons. With a 1 game lead, all they have to do is win, or see the Falcons lose. With the Falcons playing the Panthers, the Buccs should simply look to take care of business. Division games are always tough to cap this late into the season, because intra-division teams hate each other. But the Saints could be looking for a sweeter draft slot, and the Buccs need to end the season in a resounding high note.

Giants @ Eagles (-3)

Hurts may still be hurt. No need to play him this last week with #2 seed all locked up for the Eagles. I'm not sure what the status on Pickett is. The bigger question is will Saquon play to amass the 101  years needed to break Eric Dickerson's rushing record.  (Dickerson rushed for 2,105 y rds. There will be an asterisk next to the record regardless since Dickerson set that in a 16-game season. 

Bills (-3) @ Patriots

The Bills have wrapped up the #2 seed, so there's no incentive to play their starters for most of the game, if at all. I expect a strong Bills 1H just to wash away the stink from the last time the two teams faced, and then the Bills can cut bait on the unneeded win. 

Texans @ Titans (-1)

The Titans are out of playoff contention, and the Texans currently hold the 4th seed and will maintain the 4th seed no matter the outcome of this game. They'll have a home game to start the playoffs. The big question is who they will be facing. Will it be the Steelers/Ravens or will it be the Chargers?

Bears @ Packers (-9.5)

A divisional matchup. Sac doesn't want us ever picking the Bears, so the Packers -9.5 it is. Despite sitting at 11-5, because of the division they play in (the strongest division in the NFL), they are currently the 7th seed. More importantly, they have secured a Wild Card berth no matter what. They will be playing for a better seeding, however. They simply need to win and hope for a Commanders loss to move up to the 6th. I don't see why they don't cover.

Commanders (-4.5) @ Cowboys

A divisional matchup. The Commanders have the 6th seed, and are assured of a Wild Card berth. If they win, they get hold on to the 6th seed.

Jaguars @ Colts (-5)

Nothing for either team to play for other than to beat a division rival or a better draft pick.

Panthers @ Falcons (-8.5)

The Falcons really just need to win here and not focus on the Buccs game. Both games will start at the same time, so both teams will simply be focusing on winning and not watching the other game's scoreboard. Not a terribly large spread to cover, especially playing at home. It's a divisional matchup, but the Falcons pushed the Commanders to the brink at Washington's stadium. They should cover this 2-score spread.

49ers @ Cardinals (-4)

Both teams have nothing to play for but pride and seeding. Both teams have their QBs set for a while, so I see this as a game where each team wants to flex on their divisional rival and end the season on a conciliatory-type of high note (not make the playoffs, but end the season with a win, especially against a division rival).

Dolphins (-1) @ Jets

The Dolphins need two things to happen for them to grab the last Wildcard spot. They need to beat the Jets and they need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs. As stated earlier, the current thought is that the Chiefs (with nothing left to play for) will sit their starters for most, if not the entire, game. That's a big ask for the football gods. While the Jets flat out stink, the Dolphins (especially with Tua) do not play well in cold weather. I sound like a broken record, but division games are always tough. I see the Jets winning. Both the Broncos and Dolphins game will be played at the same time.

Seahawks (-5) @ Rams

The Rams clinched the division last week, and they are locked in to the 3d seed. Seahawks have nothing left to play for other than the pride of beating a hated division rival. I'm not familiar with what McVay has done in the past with meaningless games, so not sure how many of the Rams starters will play in this game.

Chargers (-5.5) @ Raiders

I can see the line changing if the outcome from the earlier games determine that the Chargers cannot move up in seeding. The Chargers will most likely rest their starters for most of the game in that case. I'd wait-and-see on this game.

Chiefs @ Broncos (-10)

The line reflects that the Chiefs will rest their starters for most of the game. The #1 seed has all been locked up for Andy Reid's squad. They'll have home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. If the Broncos win, they're in the playoffs.

Vikings @ Lions (-3)

The prized jewel of all NFL games will fall on Sunday night. Both teams are at 14-2. This is for the division crown. This will be an epic game as both team will be playing for a first round bye. I like both team's offenses a lot. Don't have too much of an opinion on the game, but may just want to watch it for fun. (Hey, us degens are allowed to do that, right?)

@iConsciousness

 Great write up  

I’m taking:

Saints +13.5

leans :

Falcons

Redskins

Bengals

Great job......

Im taking Ravens ML.......

Rattler of the Saints is trash.....

Tampa beats up on the weak.....

Beat them 51-27 in October....

They wont score 27 on Sunday....GL....

iCon with the last week of the season chore of explaining the meaningful & meaningless. 

As for the Shrimps, expect Lamar to be pulled by the end of the 3rd if not by halftime and the drop off between him and what's his face is night and day. Browns are probably more interested in some crab cakes than the outcome of this game. 

No doubt.....

@Cyrax

 Whatcha going to do with that 57 that's hung up in Vikes/Lions  Big Boyyyyyyeeeeeee

@iConsciousness

 Double check but I saw TB moves up to the 3 seed with a win and a LAR loss

And the 4 seed gets Min/Det loser 

But I also saw that mcvay has already stated we will see garapolo and corum 

Nice work conky

52  in the am........

It has been bet up 5 points n a  day....

Unless a hole gets n the roof it wont go under any number.....

It has been bet up 5 points n a  day....

Unless a hole gets n the roof it wont go under any number.....

@Cyrax

@bigred84

@Biscuiteater1

@dubz4dummyz

Thanks, all. 

Dubz, I checked and you are correct. If the Rams lose and the Buccs win, the Buccs and Rams would exchange seeding. Good call out!

I don't play much college (football or basketball), but I'm going with Penn St. -7 1H. Not tracking it, because my record is for NFL. Not a whole lot of handicapping went into it. I was adding their 1H ML in one of those good-for-nothing ML parlays, and saw the spread move up a half point. I was already leaning -6.5 first half, and just felt like that was the nudge to take them at -7 in a standalone bet. 

I have no doubt that there's ZERO chance of that. The public has been hammering overs as much as favorites this year. And they are fat n happy.

I'll keep an eye out for the bet percentages. I bet sharp $ will come in on the under if anything, and I would still bet the over here.

Last time I looked, Darnold was #1 vs the blitz, and Goff was #2 vs the blitz. The Vikings blitz more than anyone, and Detroit has started to blitz often in the wake of their injuries. 

How do we not bet on the Getty's here at +5? This has ML written all over it.

Why did Flacco start last week? Is Richardson done for the year?

Was that not the biggest kick in the dick dream crushing loss against the Giants last week?

I believe that Drew Lock had a perfect passer rating in the 1H vs the Colts. He torched them in every which way.

I could put my $ on Mac Jones here getting 5, why not?

Getty, what say you?

Not even gonna try, just gonna tail some plays  

It's reported that Saquon Barkley will sit out this week. No record breaking for him, but will be well rested for the playoffs.

I'm personally conflicted on the matter, but wouldn't blame him if played. I do think ultimately this is the right move, though. He's the most important piece in the offense.