Posted:
#1
Hey guys,
I'm not sure if you guys tailed me yesterday on my college plays, but if you didn't read my thread, I suggest you go to the college football thread and see how my betting strategy works. Basically, I do not post any statistics on the game because you can find that on every other post. Instead, I base my picks off a number of things including reverse line movement, percentages, simulations, and a little of my own personal opinion. Though I cap every game, I do not bet on every game. Ratings of 3, 4, or 5 are sure fire plays for me. Ratings of 1 and 2 I do not actually risk money on. Also, if you missed my last recent post, I did a full recap on the games from yesterday. Please check that out. Onto the card. Enjoy!
Chargers vs. St. Louis
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Chargers -9.0
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 44.5
Final Score Prediction: Chargers 34 - Rams 9
I'll be the first to admit, you won't get anywhere in betting sports laying chalk on the road consistently. I tend to always "fade" these large spreads especially especially when the favorite is on the road. Not only do I, but the system I use is actually liking the Chargers enough to move this to a No Sweat Rating of 3. At first, I thought this would be a Rating of 2, which would make it a "risky play". But with the computers backing my initial thinking, I feel confident on dropping 3 units on the Chargers -9 and the Chargers 1H. Here's why. Line movement wise, the line has jumped from the opening spread of 7.5 all the way up to 9. Though this jump in the number isn't too significant, with only a little more than 60 percent backing the Chargers spread, I'm quite curious why it jumped so much. I don't mind going with line movement in some cases, and I think the books know they made a mistake on this line. You can't blame them though. How can you really make the line any bigger though, with how the Chargers (0-3) on the road has played. 0-3 road team giving up 9 on the road? Hmm...taking the Chargers here may seem "square" but to be honest, I think its actually "sharp". The line has moved considerable even though they are a lot of money coming in on the Rams. I expect the Chargers to easily cover this spread, so I recommend taking them on the 1H and for the game.
Chiefs vs. Texans
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texans -4.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 45
Final Score Prediction: Texans 28 -Chiefs 20
With No Sweat Ratings of 2, that means that you should either not play the game, or put a very small wager on the side I am siding with. A rating of 2 means that the computers do not give a well enough representation of the game in order for me to have a solid edge on the game. A rating of 2 though does factor in my personal opinion, which is why I believe taking the Texans at -4.5 is an OK bet. The line opened at -3.5 Texans and has moved to -4.5 even though most wagers are on the Chiefs. With reverse line movement, I always like to be on the opposite side (here with the Texans) even though the number is hurting us. Nonetheless, like I stated yesterday in my college football thread, reverse line movement is not enough to make a play on. Things could go either way in this game. If you need to bet on this game, take the Texans -4.5, but there are far better plays out there.
Ravens vs. Patriots
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Patriots -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 45
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
This is probably one of the hardest games on the card. The computers are not spitting out any information on this play. I would personally fade this game at all cost. As an experienced handicapper, I think this game is a complete coin flip. You can argue many factors for both teams, but I don't think any of that really matters. If anything, take the Patriots at -2.5. But I would not touch this game.
Saints vs. Bucs
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Bucs +4.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 44
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 21 - Saints 20
Smell that? I smell money burning from this game. This is the biggest trap of the morning in my opinion. The Saints played horrible last week, so many expect them to bounce back today against the Bucs. The computers agree 100 percent with me on this game and I expect the Bucs to pull an outright upset here at home. The line opened up at -6.5 Saints and has dropped a full 2.5 points to -4 Saints. With over 75 percent of the bets on both the Moneyline and the spread, this game has trap written all over it. Reverse line movement of 2.5, huge public team on the road against a 3-1 Tampa Bay team? Remember what I told you about the general public in my college thread last week. No one on these boards is the general public. You may argue this, but I have many reasons to prove my point. The general public loves the Saints today, the line has dropped, this is a great shot for the Bucs at home. I expect the Bucs not only to cover, but to win the game outright. Take the Bucs +4.5 for the game and the Bucs ML.
Falcons vs. Eagles
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Falcons +2
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 42.5
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 27 - Eagles 24
This is another game I do not recommend touching. The computer spit this at a definite no play, and I can't personally make a call on this game either. With the injuries surrounding Vick and the uncertainty of Kolb, I don't know what to expect in this game. The Falcons have been solid so far this year, so I guess you have to give them the slight edge in this game. Like I said regarding the Patriots game, there are much better lines to be on today.
I'm not sure if you guys tailed me yesterday on my college plays, but if you didn't read my thread, I suggest you go to the college football thread and see how my betting strategy works. Basically, I do not post any statistics on the game because you can find that on every other post. Instead, I base my picks off a number of things including reverse line movement, percentages, simulations, and a little of my own personal opinion. Though I cap every game, I do not bet on every game. Ratings of 3, 4, or 5 are sure fire plays for me. Ratings of 1 and 2 I do not actually risk money on. Also, if you missed my last recent post, I did a full recap on the games from yesterday. Please check that out. Onto the card. Enjoy!
Chargers vs. St. Louis
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Chargers -9.0
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Under 44.5
Final Score Prediction: Chargers 34 - Rams 9
I'll be the first to admit, you won't get anywhere in betting sports laying chalk on the road consistently. I tend to always "fade" these large spreads especially especially when the favorite is on the road. Not only do I, but the system I use is actually liking the Chargers enough to move this to a No Sweat Rating of 3. At first, I thought this would be a Rating of 2, which would make it a "risky play". But with the computers backing my initial thinking, I feel confident on dropping 3 units on the Chargers -9 and the Chargers 1H. Here's why. Line movement wise, the line has jumped from the opening spread of 7.5 all the way up to 9. Though this jump in the number isn't too significant, with only a little more than 60 percent backing the Chargers spread, I'm quite curious why it jumped so much. I don't mind going with line movement in some cases, and I think the books know they made a mistake on this line. You can't blame them though. How can you really make the line any bigger though, with how the Chargers (0-3) on the road has played. 0-3 road team giving up 9 on the road? Hmm...taking the Chargers here may seem "square" but to be honest, I think its actually "sharp". The line has moved considerable even though they are a lot of money coming in on the Rams. I expect the Chargers to easily cover this spread, so I recommend taking them on the 1H and for the game.
Chiefs vs. Texans
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Texans -4.5
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Over 45
Final Score Prediction: Texans 28 -Chiefs 20
With No Sweat Ratings of 2, that means that you should either not play the game, or put a very small wager on the side I am siding with. A rating of 2 means that the computers do not give a well enough representation of the game in order for me to have a solid edge on the game. A rating of 2 though does factor in my personal opinion, which is why I believe taking the Texans at -4.5 is an OK bet. The line opened at -3.5 Texans and has moved to -4.5 even though most wagers are on the Chiefs. With reverse line movement, I always like to be on the opposite side (here with the Texans) even though the number is hurting us. Nonetheless, like I stated yesterday in my college football thread, reverse line movement is not enough to make a play on. Things could go either way in this game. If you need to bet on this game, take the Texans -4.5, but there are far better plays out there.
Ravens vs. Patriots
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Patriots -2.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 45
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 28 - Ravens 24
This is probably one of the hardest games on the card. The computers are not spitting out any information on this play. I would personally fade this game at all cost. As an experienced handicapper, I think this game is a complete coin flip. You can argue many factors for both teams, but I don't think any of that really matters. If anything, take the Patriots at -2.5. But I would not touch this game.
Saints vs. Bucs
No Sweat Rating: 4 - Bucs +4.5
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Under 44
Final Score Prediction: Bucs 21 - Saints 20
Smell that? I smell money burning from this game. This is the biggest trap of the morning in my opinion. The Saints played horrible last week, so many expect them to bounce back today against the Bucs. The computers agree 100 percent with me on this game and I expect the Bucs to pull an outright upset here at home. The line opened up at -6.5 Saints and has dropped a full 2.5 points to -4 Saints. With over 75 percent of the bets on both the Moneyline and the spread, this game has trap written all over it. Reverse line movement of 2.5, huge public team on the road against a 3-1 Tampa Bay team? Remember what I told you about the general public in my college thread last week. No one on these boards is the general public. You may argue this, but I have many reasons to prove my point. The general public loves the Saints today, the line has dropped, this is a great shot for the Bucs at home. I expect the Bucs not only to cover, but to win the game outright. Take the Bucs +4.5 for the game and the Bucs ML.
Falcons vs. Eagles
No Sweat Rating: 1 - Falcons +2
No Sweat Rating: 2 - Over 42.5
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 27 - Eagles 24
This is another game I do not recommend touching. The computer spit this at a definite no play, and I can't personally make a call on this game either. With the injuries surrounding Vick and the uncertainty of Kolb, I don't know what to expect in this game. The Falcons have been solid so far this year, so I guess you have to give them the slight edge in this game. Like I said regarding the Patriots game, there are much better lines to be on today.
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