NOV 13

33-19      +1255

MIA -3 -130

BUF -3 -110

PIT ML +110

DEN +3 -105

LAR -1 -107

Nice card, good luck!

what are your thoughts on Denver and Rams?

@Coviddies

 Some of it without getting too bogged down at all the esoteric numbers I look at:

   Making a long story somewhat shorter.  Denver just had a bye.  I think they decided to make a couple of moves and their talk this week is on cleaning up some things they need to work on to score more in the RZ and convert on 3rd downs. They have covered against Tenn when they do play them.  I trust Wilson better than I do Willis.  When I made this play it seemed Tannehill would be active but probably not start.  Denver defense is solid enough on 3rd downs and in the RZ.  Depending on what types of numbers you like to use, they are one of the best against the pass.  So, they know they will likely have to key on stopping the run.  I think they will be able to do that well enough to keep the game close.  If Den is able to get a couple of nice scoring drives in early and force Tenn to have to throw more, Den might even be able to get a win.

   With the Rams, at the time it didn’t look like Stafford was going to play.  So that was the lowest I saw and got.  Would have been okay with it if he didn’t play.  Now it seems he will play.  Either way, I flat-out do not trust Murray at all.  I even think some of the team are not confident in him in key situations.  The argument with Hopkins may have been overblown.  But I still see lack of leadership in him.  The fave in this game almost always has covered lately.  Rams are right with Den on defense in RZ.  I think they will get enough pressure on Murray to force mistakes.  Rams usually play a clean game and won’t give up free yards too much with penalties.  If they do that and can get any semblance of a running game going, especially if they don’t have Stafford, they should do enough to force Murray to beat them through the air, and I do not think he can do that.   

Good luck Raiders.