Oakland Raiders over 5.5 (+115)

This won't be very popular...

Oakland over 5.5 (+115)

Now this seems to be a team much improved.  Nowhere to go but up and, through the draft and free agency, they're already on their way to 8-8.  Or maybe 7-9..

Let's start with Matt Flynn.  It's his position to lose according to new GM Reggie McKenzie, who is very familiar with Flynn from their days in Green Bay.  It's nice that he doesn't have to worry about Pryor or rookie Tyler Wilson breathing down his neck.  At least for now...  Flynn is going to have to make some plays because his receivers are crap.  Injury prone Jacoby Ford is back, that's something I guess.

On the other side of the ball, last year, their defensive line was about the worst in the NFL.  It's basically impossible NOT to improve.  Having Richard Seymour out of the picture is already a huge improvement.  The retirement of LB Rolando McClain is also a big upgrade.  These two losers were cancerous to the locker room and, with them out of the picture, there's now open opportunities for true leaders to step up and instill some confidence in the team.  

Speaking of leaders, enter Charles Woodson.  The secondary is the most improved bunch on this team.  According to ESPN, the Raiders have 4 of the top 15 and 5 of the top 19 DBs in the AFC West.  Tyvon Branch (#7), Charles Woodson (#10), DJ Hayden (#11), Mike Jenkins (#15), Tracey Porter (#19).  Interestingly enough, their best CB towards the end of last season was Phillip Adams and he's outside this short list, being ranked #24.  Things are indeed looking up in the defensive backfield.

Quick shout out to 3rd round pick LB Sio Moore, who is on the path to starting week 1.  He led UCONN with 15.5 tackles for loss in 2012, totaling 43 for his college career.  FORTY THREE!  Oakland may have skipped the draft in terms of DE but they got their future big time pass rusher.  Lots of pressure for the young rookie but he had a great combine and the Raiders love him.  Alongside Nick Roach, who came from Chicago and who will be the captain/play-caller, these 2 guys could very well lead the team in tackles.  Don't underestimate how much Rolando McClain and Richard Seymour were bringing down the defense, especially up front.  These guys were hated among their peers and McClain was an idiot.  MASSIVE upgrades here.


The schedule.  It is tough.

Let's say they go 2-4 in the division, getting swept by Denver.  This leaves 10 games to find 4 wins.

WK 1 @ IND   loss
WK 2 vs JAX   win
WK 4 vs WAS   ???
WK 8 vs PIT   ???  (The Steelers lost this game last year and also in 2009)
WK 9 vs PHI   ???
WK 10 @ NYG   loss
WK 11 @ HOU   loss
WK 12 vs TEN   win
WK 13 @ DAL   ???
WK 14 @ NYJ   win

As recently as the 2010 season, the Oakland Raiders swept their division going 6-0.  That certainly isn't happening again this year BUT, if they take care of the true scrubs on their schedule this season, I have faith that the young Black and Silver can pull an upset or two on some big dogs and who knows, by the end of the season, they might even be the favorite in 2 out of 3 of those last few divisional matchups of the year.

After finishing 4-12 in 2012 and being thoroughly embarrassed, what better way to earn some recognition than by picking up some guidance and leadership and winning a few games?  Last year, even when the offense was playing well, the defense would blow the lead or it would simply be too far out of reach for them to catch up.  I expect a noticeable change.  In the words of the late Al Davis, "Just win baby!"

I actually really like this play.

Good write up.

Raiders will overachieve this year. I like the pick

let me ask you this...

regardless of where the games are played, how many teams on their schedule do you think the raiders are better than?   like on a neutral field.  Jacksonville?  anyone else?  

so you're basically asking them to win 5 times against organizations that have better teams than they are.  the raiders are the definition of a team in transition right now.   they are in rebuild mode.   only way you get to 6 wins is if Flynn plays really well IMO.   I don't know how you can bank on that given that he wasn't even that great in college and its all mostly based on 1 NFL game. 


 

Nice write-up.  NFL season win bets are amongst my favorite bets to make.

I was looking at the under for the raiders, but was going to likely stay away.   

- Offense had alot of injuries last year to its play-makers ( (jacoby ford, denarious heyward, darren mcfadden) and it really crippled the offense.  Ford is back, but heyward-bey is gone and Mcfadden can't be relied on for 16 games.   I really like moore, but I don't know too much about some of the other "playmakers" on the offense.

- Both KC and San Diego will be improved and be 7+ win teams.  Add in denver, and I could easily see the raiders going 1-5 vs the division. 

- their two at-large games are at home vs the steelers and on the road vs the jets.  Steelers will no doubt have "revenge" on their mind after losing last year on a last second field goal.  Jets are going to be better than people think and will certainly have this one circled as a must win game vs a raiders team notorious for being terrible travelling to the east coast.

- Their two division match-ups are vs the NFC east, which is very balanced and talented and the AFC south, which affords them two vinnable home games vs the titans and Jaguars, but almost guarenteed losses on the road vs the colts and texans. 

- raiders are notorious for being one of the least disciplined teams in the league and were once again near the bottom of the league in penalties/game.  BUT they improved alot from 2011 and with a second year under the new coach, they may further improve. There is nothing more frustrating than putting money on a team that shoots itself in the foot.

-  ultimately, the x-factor for the raiders comes down to one thing and one thing only:  How good is Matt Flynn?  If he plays well, this team will win 6+ games.  If flynn struggles, this team will be lucky to win 2 games.  A bet on the over 5.5 is essentially betting that you think Matt Flynn is a good NFL quarterback. 

My prediction:

Vs Division:  1-5

Vs NFC east: 1-3

Vs AFC south: 2-2

At-large games: 0-2

overall: 4-12

I think philly, washington and dallas are all alot better then you are giving them credit for if you are putting all those as "toss-ups".  Revenge game for pittsburg.  They will not lose this year after crapping their pants late in the game last year.  West-Coast raiders travelling to the east coast for a 1 pm game?!  You have to be nuts to pencil that in as a win, even vs a dysfunctional joke of a team like the jets.  The jets win total is 6.5, and with a healthy offense, they will be better than people think imo.

 

The offense is nothing too spectacular but if Denarius Moore can improve only slightly and Jacoby Ford can stay healthy then I think Flynn will be ok, or at the very least, tolerable. 

The TE position is a kind of a mystery right now.  They drafted two of them and last time new offensive coordinator Greg Olson held an OC job, in Tampa Bay from 2008-2011, Kellen Winslow was a nice bright spot.  So they've got that going for them, I guess...

There's a reason that OC Greg Knapp was let go after only one season.  He tried to force his schemes into an offense that wasn't built for it.  These types of mistakes won't continue with Greg Olson taking over.  He's already been quoted saying as much.

I typed out that entire write up making a case for the Raiders to pick up some wins and I purposely never once mentioned Darren McFadden or Marcel Reece.  It's obvious that the offense goes through RUN DMC but I think Reece is getting overlooked.  He was a receiver in college and don't be surprised if he lines up out there sometimes this coming season.  Both backs have good hands and make for great checkdowns from Flynn, especially while he gets used to the new offense.  Reece is a playmaker who wasn't given the appropriate looks last year.  That will change.

Dennis Allen will be the coach in Oakland for a nice long stretch.  He's the first defensive minded coach they've had since John Madden.  Al Davis' offense-first mentality is completely gone.  Change is coming in the Black Hole and I'm getting in on it early.

Not to be a jerk, but if everyone followed this mindset of 'the best team always wins' then the Ravens wouldn't be the defending champs and, quite frankly, the entire league would be very boring.  Upsets happen every week of the season.  To say that the Raiders can't beat the Eagles or the Steelers or the Jets is nonsense.  Nobody knows what the Eagles are going to look like, the Steelers have been steadily declining, and the Jets are the Jets.  Honestly, if this Oakland team finishes 7-9 or 8-8, how shocked can you really be?  I'm not calling them a playoff team, I'm only expecting a marginal improvement.  At +115 and with what they've done in the offseason so far, I see tremendous value.

I meant to address this as well..

I touched on it in the first post, but dumping Seymour and having McClain retire is the best thing that could have happened to this team.  McClain was not the sharpest tool in the shed, which probably has something to do with him going back to college.  He was hated amongst his teammates and just a flat out downer.  Nick Roach taking his spot is a GIGANTIC step forward.  He's smarter, well liked, a team player, a better player, and a leader. 

After Seymour got hurt last year, the line began playing better.  That's no coincidence either.  He was also a cancer and very much disliked. 

Like I said in the first post, do not underestimate how much these two jokers were holding back that defense.  New leaders, new coaches, new discipline, new confidence.

UNDER 2-14

Fantastic write up. Like it.

I could see Oakland splitting with KC & San Diego, being swept by Denver.  So 2-4 in division.

AFC West has the AFC South & NFC East this year.  Is 1-3 against the NFC reasonable?  I think so.  2-2 against the AFC South is quite a good shot to happen I believe.

That leavse the Jets & Pittsburgh.  Let's say they split those.

That's a 6-10 record.  And that's being honest, they could probably do MUCH better than that.

Exactly.  Good luck man.  I find it funny when people try and do the win/loss for a team with the favorite ALWAYS winning lol.  People seem to forget teams like Cleveland or Jacksonville will beat Denver or SF

Mike Jenkins..................he sux. How he is rated #15, I will never know. Perhaps he was rated by Mrs. Jenkins?

Ha!  He wasn't a total bust.  In his second year, when he became a starter, he had 5 picks and 49 tackles.  Made the Pro Bowl, too. 

He'll probably start with DJ Hayden/Tracey Porter but, with Branch and Woodson playing safety behind them, I doubt they'll be giving up many big plays.  They may not have that one superstar CB, but they've got plenty of depth.

in post #5 i predicted the Raiders to be 1-3 vs NFC East.  So I do think that they will one of those games, I just don't which one.  Its about accumulated probabilities, and i think it is realistic they go 1-3 vs the NFC east and not much more than that.  Raiders could be double digit dog going into both dallas and NYG, its not realistic to call either of those as "toss-ups".  both the philly and washington games will be near pick'ems and they are "toss-ups".  a split of those two is realistic

Of course upsets happen and the best team wins.

CONVERSELY, USING YOUR OWN LOGIC:  How can you so confidently pencil in wins vs jacksonville, tennesse and NYJ!!!!  both the titans and jets have higher win total projections than the raiders and jacksonville is just a touch below at 5.     All of those games will have  near pk'em spreads and be coinflips, yet you are banking them as wins!  Look yourself in the mirror my friend!

 

 

Absolutely 100% agree.  Infact, I thought this last year when i bet them over 6.5 wins.  The win total got bet up to 7.5 before the season began and i was already cashing my ticket.  Raiders had a nice win vs pitt last year, and some really good games like vs atlanta.

I watched this team closely last year and do like the direction they are going in, i just think don't quite have the talent and positional DEPTH to make the leap yet.   Would it suprise me if they won 7 games?  No it wouldn't.  But it also wouldn't surprise me if they won 3 games.   I think this team needs another couple of years of drafting high before they reach the tipping point of "taking the leap".  Either that, or drafting an elite franchise quarterback

Keep in mind, Carson Palmer was an above average quarterback last year and put up some respectable numbers with an injury ravaged offense. Do you really think matt flynn can out-perform carson plamers numbers from last year?  The same matt flynn that couldn't beat-out russel wilson?  Remember that wilson only became a phenom in the second hafl of the season and there was still alot of doubts about wilson in the first half the season.

Like is said earlier, a bet on the raiders over 5.5, is a bet on Matt Flynn putting up significantly better numbers than carson palmer last year, and i don't think thats going to happen.

I find it funny that people think the raider are a "lock"  to win vs jacksonville, tennessese or the jets!  People seem to forget that crappy teams lose to other crappy teams even when they are favorites.

You're right but people seem to neglect the fact that any of those crappy teams can beat Denver, SF, Atlanta or New England on any given Sunday too.  It's not like upsets NEVER happen in the NFL.  To think Oakland will lose to every team they're the underdog to is foolish.  So when you balance it all out I think Oakland could go 6-10 or better assuming they stay healthy and McFadden is effective.

Last bit i am going to add to

Last little bit i have to add. Jawarski rates matt flynn as the worst starting qb in the nfl:

https://espn.go.com/blog/afcwest/post/_/id/59379/jaws-matt-flynn-is-nfls-worst-starting-qb

As i have said twice already, the raiders over 5.5 bet is a wager that you think matt flynn will be a good nfl qb and put up atleast the numbers carson palmer put up last year (which are better than most people think)

2) raiders have an unprecedented $49 million in dead money on their cap! They are taking the full cap hit this year so they are completely clean from all those terrible al davis contracts next year, and have close to $69 million in cap space this year. they did this in favor of spreading out the dead money over the course of years. this is a huge red flag that mangement knows and expects this to be a rebuilding year. what this lack of cap space means is a complete lack of depth and once injuries to the lines start to accumulate after a few weeks, the raiders are going to look like shit.

I think i just talked myself into taking the under! good luck with the over bet!
As i said in post 18, this team is going in the right direction, but lack of a qb and lack of positional depth are going to hurt this team this year

The above should read:

".... and have close to $69 million in cap space NEXT year...."

yeah this is a Nice one ...

if I wasn't already on the Chiefs over 7.5 this would be a play for me as well ...

Nice Low number for the raiders ...6+ is doable

 

BEST of LUCK brother man

Flynn doesn't have to out perform Palmer's stats to earn more wins.  He just has to try his best to limit turnovers.  They're heading into a much more run oriented offense which will be geared towards their best offensive players, Darren McFadden and Marcel Reece. 

The coaching staff has been reworked to reflect these changes; new offensive coordinator and new offensive line coach.

Quarterback is definitely the most important position on the field but as long as McFadden can stay healthy (which is a tough task) they'll be running the ball much more effectively than they did last year.  With this and an improved defense, 6, 7, or 8 wins is realistic.