Official System Picks for Week 15

After this weekend, the system will have been tested in 200 games ... so we'll be 1/5 of the way to 1000 where we'll know for sure if its great, no better than a coin toss, or bad! Actually if it's either great or  bad it will be useful ... as you can just fade it! The kiss of death would be a record like 500-500!  If that happens, it is junk and I will be the first to admit it :-)) In our infancy of this test, the current record is 95 wins, 93 losses and 7 pushes. 

Here are the 5 system picks for week 15:

Sorry ... I copied and pasted and it did not show up. Here goes:

Bears +5.5

Dolphins +3.5

Texans +10.5

Jets +15.5

Cardinals +4

I would hope so! I studied over 30 years of games (8000+) and created the metrics based on extensive research. And I easily got 54% to 55% success ATS in an unbiased professional statisticasl approach which avoided many flawed approaces and supposedly mimicked what future bets would look like. Those percentages are what I expect. Even 53% would not be bad. I have not seen that same level of success yet in my actual future predictions as I'm obviously barely hanging in there above 50%. However...that is still totally within the normal score range if I have a machine that produces 53 to 55%. The 50% after 200 games, if that is true, should probably be corrected somewhat over the next 200 games where if I hit 58%, for example, then over 400 it would be at 54% and about what I expect. The more games I predict, the closer this sample success rate will approximate the true value ... or population rate. Now if I get another 50% success over the next 200 games to be sitting at 50% after 400, then I will start seriously doubting the power of this system. Even a 53% process would most likely not be at 50% over 400 trials ... and would at least reach 52-55% over the second set of 200 games. After 1000 games we'll know for sure what we have within a very small margin of error, less than 1 percentage point for sure. In sum, 200 games is nothing, but 400 starts to gain pretty good statistical power ... so if this system is what the research showed it to be, I wouldn't bet against it in the next 200 game stretch. It might have a little natural correction or Bounceback and hit 60%!! Time will tell all!

I'm not sure if it bets against the public so much as just doing what it does with all the input regardless of what Joe average public handicapper does. It certainly does not include a public perception factor in the formula. The public is pretty dumb. And even the best tv media experts on NFL have horrific pick records against the spread. In fact there is a media bias against being correct, but it's not big enough to fade to allow better handicapping.