Books are trying to trick you into taking Arizona in this spot.
Cardinals upset the Eagles as a massive underdog last week. I actually picked that upset correctly. I put it in a parlay that ended up failing when Alabama lost but that's beside the point. I do not typically post my bets on here because I bet small and like many of you only win roughly half of my bets. But trends and game analysis are always valuable so here you go.
For me the Jonathan Gannon connection was a big hint that a Cardinals upset was on the table... 1st year as coach for the Cardinals, previously was the defensive coordinator for the Eagles in their Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. This was a throw away season for the Cardinals and there was a lot of talk about him knowing the Eagles schemes and how to exploit them. Supposedly there is a lot of bad blood between him and the Eagles organization. Gannon really wanted to play spoiler and beat them in week 17.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Line is currently Seahawks -2.5
Books are trying to trick you into taking Arizona in this spot.
Cardinals upset the Eagles as a massive underdog last week. I actually picked that upset correctly. I put it in a parlay that ended up failing when Alabama lost but that's beside the point. I do not typically post my bets on here because I bet small and like many of you only win roughly half of my bets. But trends and game analysis are always valuable so here you go.
For me the Jonathan Gannon connection was a big hint that a Cardinals upset was on the table... 1st year as coach for the Cardinals, previously was the defensive coordinator for the Eagles in their Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. This was a throw away season for the Cardinals and there was a lot of talk about him knowing the Eagles schemes and how to exploit them. Supposedly there is a lot of bad blood between him and the Eagles organization. Gannon really wanted to play spoiler and beat them in week 17.
Gannon's last game as defensive coordinator was in the Eagles Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. In that game the Chiefs scored 28pts in the 2nd half vs the Eagles. Not to be outdone, on Sunday the Cardinals topped that number scoring 29pts in the 2nd half vs the Eagles. The Eagles loss took away any chance of getting a 1st round bye.
ARI was down 21-6 at the half and proceeded to score 29 points in the 2nd half. Kyler Murray had an 80%+ completion percentage in the game. Will lightning strike twice in back to back weeks. Can they play that well again. It's possible but highly unlikely. This game was what you would call an outlier. This was Arizona's Super Bowl and they won it.
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GAME ANALYSIS
Gannon's last game as defensive coordinator was in the Eagles Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. In that game the Chiefs scored 28pts in the 2nd half vs the Eagles. Not to be outdone, on Sunday the Cardinals topped that number scoring 29pts in the 2nd half vs the Eagles. The Eagles loss took away any chance of getting a 1st round bye.
ARI was down 21-6 at the half and proceeded to score 29 points in the 2nd half. Kyler Murray had an 80%+ completion percentage in the game. Will lightning strike twice in back to back weeks. Can they play that well again. It's possible but highly unlikely. This game was what you would call an outlier. This was Arizona's Super Bowl and they won it.
Cardinals over the last few years have been a very bad end of season team:
2019 they went 2-5 over their final 7 regular season games with Kyler Murray at qb
2020 they went 2-5 over their final 7 regular season games with Kyler Murray at qb
2021 they went 2-5 over their final 7 games with Kyler Murray at qb
2022 they went 1-6 over their last 7 games with Kyler Murray at qb
2023 they went 2-4 over their last 6 regular season games with Kyler Murray at qb BUT WAIT there is one final game left to be played on Sunday.
Will the Cardinals break the trend against a Seahawks team desperate to make the playoffs or lose the final game and once again end the season 2-5 over their last 7 games with Kyler Murray at qb?
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WEEK 18 RELEVANT TRENDS
Cardinals over the last few years have been a very bad end of season team:
2019 they went 2-5 over their final 7 regular season games with Kyler Murray at qb
2020 they went 2-5 over their final 7 regular season games with Kyler Murray at qb
2021 they went 2-5 over their final 7 games with Kyler Murray at qb
2022 they went 1-6 over their last 7 games with Kyler Murray at qb
2023 they went 2-4 over their last 6 regular season games with Kyler Murray at qb BUT WAIT there is one final game left to be played on Sunday.
Will the Cardinals break the trend against a Seahawks team desperate to make the playoffs or lose the final game and once again end the season 2-5 over their last 7 games with Kyler Murray at qb?
The Seahawks have the better defense and offense. But do the Cardinals even want to win the final game of the season? Should they? The obvious answer is no.
As long as Arizona loses on Sunday they are guaranteed the #4 pick in the draft. Winning would muddy the water for them in a major way.
Arizona's strength of schedule (sos) is way too high. It currently sits at 0.562 while all the teams around them picking at the top of the draft are closer to 0.520.
If Arizona beats the Seahawks they would be royally screwing themselves over. Because of their super high sos a win on Sunday would likely land them the #7 pick in the draft. The most talented players will likely be taken with the top 5 picks in the draft.
I fully expect the Bears to trade their #1 pick for either the #2, #3, #4, or #5 pick in the draft. Arizona really wants to draft Marvin Harrison. He may still be there at #4 but they will have no shot at drafting him at #7.
I would not be surprised if the Cardinals end up swapping their #4 pick with the Bears for the #1.
Cardinals use the #1 pick to draft Marvin Harrison who is a generational talent at wr and a future hall of famer barring injury.
Bears could use the #4 pick to draft Michael Penix who appears to have all the makings of an elite pro qb.
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DRAFT PICKS FOR LOSSES
The Seahawks have the better defense and offense. But do the Cardinals even want to win the final game of the season? Should they? The obvious answer is no.
As long as Arizona loses on Sunday they are guaranteed the #4 pick in the draft. Winning would muddy the water for them in a major way.
Arizona's strength of schedule (sos) is way too high. It currently sits at 0.562 while all the teams around them picking at the top of the draft are closer to 0.520.
If Arizona beats the Seahawks they would be royally screwing themselves over. Because of their super high sos a win on Sunday would likely land them the #7 pick in the draft. The most talented players will likely be taken with the top 5 picks in the draft.
I fully expect the Bears to trade their #1 pick for either the #2, #3, #4, or #5 pick in the draft. Arizona really wants to draft Marvin Harrison. He may still be there at #4 but they will have no shot at drafting him at #7.
I would not be surprised if the Cardinals end up swapping their #4 pick with the Bears for the #1.
Cardinals use the #1 pick to draft Marvin Harrison who is a generational talent at wr and a future hall of famer barring injury.
Bears could use the #4 pick to draft Michael Penix who appears to have all the makings of an elite pro qb.
I think some of you missed the point of this post completely. Every Seahawk win this year has been by 3+ points.
Seahawk Losses
Rams 30 - Seattle 13
Seattle 13 - Bengals 17
Seattle 3 - Ravens 37
Seattle 16 - Rams 17
49ers 31 - Seattle 13
Seattle 35 - Dallas 41
Seattle 16 - 49ers 28
Steelers 30 - Seahawks 23
Which of the above teams is bad? Not one. Every Seahawks loss was to a playoff team.
Arizona is 4-12 on the year for a reason. They are not better than any of those teams.
When a line is this low a lot of betters will take the underdog to win outright. More people will bet on an underdog, Arizona in this case, to win outright when the moneyline pays out at +120 than if the moneyline pays out at +200... that is just the psychology of betting.
And I do think some lines are put out there designed to take more than just the vig. If 60% of the money ends up on Arizona spread/moneyline and Seattle wins this game by 7+ the books will clean up. They can make way more money taking a side than going for a 50/50 split.
There are some professional betters out there that believe this line should be Seahawks -5 or higher. Seahawks -2.5 was a gift.
Arizona has all the incentive in the world to lose this game. You're naive if you think the coach is not being told to lose by the GM to preserve their #4 pick. This game might end up being close but they will not win.
Taking Seattle right now is betting against a push. IF the Seahawks win they most likely win by a minimum of 3.
But by all means go ahead and bet the other side if you think I am way off on this one. No one is stopping you.
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I think some of you missed the point of this post completely. Every Seahawk win this year has been by 3+ points.
Seahawk Losses
Rams 30 - Seattle 13
Seattle 13 - Bengals 17
Seattle 3 - Ravens 37
Seattle 16 - Rams 17
49ers 31 - Seattle 13
Seattle 35 - Dallas 41
Seattle 16 - 49ers 28
Steelers 30 - Seahawks 23
Which of the above teams is bad? Not one. Every Seahawks loss was to a playoff team.
Arizona is 4-12 on the year for a reason. They are not better than any of those teams.
When a line is this low a lot of betters will take the underdog to win outright. More people will bet on an underdog, Arizona in this case, to win outright when the moneyline pays out at +120 than if the moneyline pays out at +200... that is just the psychology of betting.
And I do think some lines are put out there designed to take more than just the vig. If 60% of the money ends up on Arizona spread/moneyline and Seattle wins this game by 7+ the books will clean up. They can make way more money taking a side than going for a 50/50 split.
There are some professional betters out there that believe this line should be Seahawks -5 or higher. Seahawks -2.5 was a gift.
Arizona has all the incentive in the world to lose this game. You're naive if you think the coach is not being told to lose by the GM to preserve their #4 pick. This game might end up being close but they will not win.
Taking Seattle right now is betting against a push. IF the Seahawks win they most likely win by a minimum of 3.
But by all means go ahead and bet the other side if you think I am way off on this one. No one is stopping you.
good stuff but if the cards were overly concerned about placement in the draft and eyeing a certain player wouldn’t they have simply lost more games
I think they lost enough games to still be in contention. Arizona wanted to beat the Eagles really bad for their coach. After the win they are still holding the #4 pick.
Arizona should be able to get Marvin Harrison at #4 but trading with the Bears for the #1 pick would be the safest way to go about it.
If the Bears end up swapping their #1 pick for the #2/#3 I would not be surprised if they end up taking Marvin Harrison themselves.
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Quote Originally Posted by rosswin97:
good stuff but if the cards were overly concerned about placement in the draft and eyeing a certain player wouldn’t they have simply lost more games
I think they lost enough games to still be in contention. Arizona wanted to beat the Eagles really bad for their coach. After the win they are still holding the #4 pick.
Arizona should be able to get Marvin Harrison at #4 but trading with the Bears for the #1 pick would be the safest way to go about it.
If the Bears end up swapping their #1 pick for the #2/#3 I would not be surprised if they end up taking Marvin Harrison themselves.
Good stuff Pablo and I agree. Seattle covers. Hollywood Brown was a big loss for the offense. Cards defense stinks. Doesn't seem wise to bet on a 4-12 team to win back to back games or even cover at less than 3 points.
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Good stuff Pablo and I agree. Seattle covers. Hollywood Brown was a big loss for the offense. Cards defense stinks. Doesn't seem wise to bet on a 4-12 team to win back to back games or even cover at less than 3 points.
Quote Originally Posted by rosswin97: good stuff but if the cards were overly concerned about placement in the draft and eyeing a certain player wouldn’t they have simply lost more games I think they lost enough games to still be in contention. Arizona wanted to beat the Eagles really bad for their coach. After the win they are still holding the #4 pick. Arizona should be able to get Marvin Harrison at #4 but trading with the Bears for the #1 pick would be the safest way to go about it. If the Bears end up swapping their #1 pick for the #2/#3 I would not be surprised if they end up taking Marvin Harrison themselves.
The problem with that is Harrison is going first so he won't be available for Cards to select nor is Chicago coming off of that pick since they are keeping Fields.
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Quote Originally Posted by Pablo989:
Quote Originally Posted by rosswin97: good stuff but if the cards were overly concerned about placement in the draft and eyeing a certain player wouldn’t they have simply lost more games I think they lost enough games to still be in contention. Arizona wanted to beat the Eagles really bad for their coach. After the win they are still holding the #4 pick. Arizona should be able to get Marvin Harrison at #4 but trading with the Bears for the #1 pick would be the safest way to go about it. If the Bears end up swapping their #1 pick for the #2/#3 I would not be surprised if they end up taking Marvin Harrison themselves.
The problem with that is Harrison is going first so he won't be available for Cards to select nor is Chicago coming off of that pick since they are keeping Fields.
Not so sure about that. Is Fields worth paying a minimum 25+ million a year contract. I don't think so.
A lot of pundits believe it would make more sense for the Bears to start over with another qb on a rookie deal.
A lot depends on how Justin Fields plays against the Packers.
I think in the Bears position a lot of GMs would rather start over at qb and draft someone like Penex based off of potential alone.
It would not surprise me if the Bears swap 1st rd picks with Arizona assuming that team ends up getting the #4... Arizona gets their prized WR target, Bears get a top qb in the draft + more draft capital.
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@rosswin97
Not so sure about that. Is Fields worth paying a minimum 25+ million a year contract. I don't think so.
A lot of pundits believe it would make more sense for the Bears to start over with another qb on a rookie deal.
A lot depends on how Justin Fields plays against the Packers.
I think in the Bears position a lot of GMs would rather start over at qb and draft someone like Penex based off of potential alone.
It would not surprise me if the Bears swap 1st rd picks with Arizona assuming that team ends up getting the #4... Arizona gets their prized WR target, Bears get a top qb in the draft + more draft capital.
IF Michael Penex ends up having a Tom Brady-like career (clutch, all he does is win) that would be far more valuable than adding an elite wr like Marvin Harrison.
Just look at the Lions, they had Calvin Johnson one of the best WRs ever in the nfl on their team for many years... where did that get them???
Bears would be a good team with Marvin Harrison, but they have the potential to be a great team with Penex.
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IF Michael Penex ends up having a Tom Brady-like career (clutch, all he does is win) that would be far more valuable than adding an elite wr like Marvin Harrison.
Just look at the Lions, they had Calvin Johnson one of the best WRs ever in the nfl on their team for many years... where did that get them???
Bears would be a good team with Marvin Harrison, but they have the potential to be a great team with Penex.
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