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Peyton Regular Season Manning Opens 10 Point Favorites against Rivers

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Posted: #26
Hey LC, while I do feel like the niners offense has issues in converting TDs in the red zone, I am liking Phil Dawson, special teams, and the defense to keep them close and ahead in the game. The defense is playing out of their mind, holding Rodgers at home to his lowest postseason passing yds and a very physical Eddie lacy in check. I think the DLine couldve been better, but now they have to be extra mindful of containment with Cam.

Panthers are a no joke defensive team, but I do agree that Vernon and Crabtree out at our home game lost impacted the offense. I see the niners controlling the tempo and grinding out a W. While Cam has immensely improved this year, I wouldnt be surprised if he throws an interception or two that leads to points for the Niners. IMO the difference will be turnovers and special teams play.

I definitely do not like seeing too much niner love on the boards though. If I see a niners muff punt or fumble I will more than likely hedge out and buy on panthers during a live bet.
 
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Posted: #27
Cap I am leaning chargers myself. Was doing my homework and I found that teams in the Divisional round of the playoffs that are 9 or more point underdogs are 9-1 ats. The only loss was New England when they smashed the Tim Tebow lead Broncos a few years ago. 

As for Rivers, he has only been a double digit dog 3 times in his career, Once as a rookie against Denver when he was getting 10 and they lost by 10. The second was in 2007 at Indy where they were again getting 10 and the Chargers won that game outright. The third was this year when they played in Denver and won outright. Making him 2-1 straight up and 2-0-1 ATS in these situations. 

Pair that up with the fact that Rivers is 8-1 ats when getting 7 or more in his career. He is 3-1 this season when getting 7 or more:

SD covered against Philly, Denver, and then bengals last week. Their loss was to Denver at home a few weeks back where they got 7. 
That makes a Rivers lead Chargers team 8-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. Plus they seem to be rolling on all cylinders right now. I really am starting to like this play althogh initial thought was Denver would not let what happened to them last year happen again. I think Denver wins still but liking the Chargers to get the cover. 

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by wmcintyre:

Cap I am leaning chargers myself. Was doing my homework and I found that teams in the Divisional round of the playoffs that are 9 or more point underdogs are 9-1 ats. The only loss was New England when they smashed the Tim Tebow lead Broncos a few years ago. 

As for Rivers, he has only been a double digit dog 3 times in his career, Once as a rookie against Denver when he was getting 10 and they lost by 10. The second was in 2007 at Indy where they were again getting 10 and the Chargers won that game outright. The third was this year when they played in Denver and won outright. Making him 2-1 straight up and 2-0-1 ATS in these situations. 

Pair that up with the fact that Rivers is 8-1 ats when getting 7 or more in his career. He is 3-1 this season when getting 7 or more:

SD covered against Philly, Denver, and then bengals last week. Their loss was to Denver at home a few weeks back where they got 7. 
That makes a Rivers lead Chargers team 8-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. Plus they seem to be rolling on all cylinders right now. I really am starting to like this play althogh initial thought was Denver would not let what happened to them last year happen again. I think Denver wins still but liking the Chargers to get the cover. 


The 9-1 ats stat is based over the past 10 seasons in the NFL. 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by wmcintyre:


The 9-1 ats stat is based over the past 10 seasons in the NFL. 

That's a good stat.
 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by mikesomoney:

Hey LC, while I do feel like the niners offense has issues in converting TDs in the red zone, I am liking Phil Dawson, special teams, and the defense to keep them close and ahead in the game. The defense is playing out of their mind, holding Rodgers at home to his lowest postseason passing yds and a very physical Eddie lacy in check. I think the DLine couldve been better, but now they have to be extra mindful of containment with Cam.

Panthers are a no joke defensive team, but I do agree that Vernon and Crabtree out at our home game lost impacted the offense. I see the niners controlling the tempo and grinding out a W. While Cam has immensely improved this year, I wouldnt be surprised if he throws an interception or two that leads to points for the Niners. IMO the difference will be turnovers and special teams play.

I definitely do not like seeing too much niner love on the boards though. If I see a niners muff punt or fumble I will more than likely hedge out and buy on panthers during a live bet.

They'll have to rely on there defense and special teams because there offense has been awful. Even with there playmakers back, they struggled to put up 23 points (would have been 20 if not for a lot of lucky breaks) against one of the worst secondaries in the league even though Kap ran for 100 or so yards. Panthers D is tons better and I assure you they won't let Kap run free back there

 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:

Save your SD ML. It will not happen.

No thanks.

221064536-1 1/6/14 6:53pm $355.00 $1,349.00 Pending 1/12/14 4:40pm  Reduced Football  117 San Diego Chargers +380* vs Denver Broncos

 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by wmcintyre:

Cap I am leaning chargers myself. Was doing my homework and I found that teams in the Divisional round of the playoffs that are 9 or more point underdogs are 9-1 ats. The only loss was New England when they smashed the Tim Tebow lead Broncos a few years ago. 

As for Rivers, he has only been a double digit dog 3 times in his career, Once as a rookie against Denver when he was getting 10 and they lost by 10. The second was in 2007 at Indy where they were again getting 10 and the Chargers won that game outright. The third was this year when they played in Denver and won outright. Making him 2-1 straight up and 2-0-1 ATS in these situations. 

Pair that up with the fact that Rivers is 8-1 ats when getting 7 or more in his career. He is 3-1 this season when getting 7 or more:

SD covered against Philly, Denver, and then bengals last week. Their loss was to Denver at home a few weeks back where they got 7. 
That makes a Rivers lead Chargers team 8-1 ATS when getting 7 or more. Plus they seem to be rolling on all cylinders right now. I really am starting to like this play althogh initial thought was Denver would not let what happened to them last year happen again. I think Denver wins still but liking the Chargers to get the cover. 

Rivers owns Manning. Peyton is 1-6 ats as a home favorite against him. I'll have a more thorough writeup on this game tomorrow but as a Pats fan, i'm worried of having to battle Rivers in the AFC championship this year.

 
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Posted: #33

Based on common denominators of past teams from the wild card round who've gone on to win the SB, there's 1 team that stands alone after last weeks wild card games, ............they are beginning to get that............magical team from the wild card round look.

And it's the Super Chargers, just like Flacco, Rivers is the highest rated passer in the playoffs and the Chargers won the QBPR battle by a whopping 51.8 points.

While none of the other winning QB's were over 100 and 2 were under 80.

Based on the prevailing very strong trend we're seeing in today's NFL..................I wouldn't bet against the Chargers again this postseason.........................................

 
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Posted: #34
They definitely have a shot to win it but I don't think Manning chokes 2 years in a row and goes 0-2 as a Bronco in Denver in the playoffs. I think I am pretty sold that I will def take the 10 though with Rivers. 

Cap: Whats your thoughts on the Saints/Hawks matchup?
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

No thanks.

221064536-1 1/6/14 6:53pm $355.00 $1,349.00 Pending 1/12/14 4:40pm  Reduced Football  117 San Diego Chargers +380* vs Denver Broncos

Like that confidence LC  Will lightning  strike twice in Denver?

 
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Posted: #36
But you can't be that high on Cam controlling the offense against the Niners Defense. I understand the Niners offensive woes but I think Kap is a winner come post season and will check it down fast on a route or move up the pocket and run for some first downs if the D isn't giving him any passing lanes.
 
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Posted: #37
What about this San Diego team has so many people excited?  If Dalton wasn't a complete moron Cincinnati wins that game!

Denver is going to win this game somewhere in the 38-17 range.  Don't waste your $ on S.D.

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by 2Team_Parlay:



ur better off with saints +21 colts +20 but the other 2 are solid imo


Yes.. take the points
 
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Posted: #39
Haste makes waste.....SD +10 makes  $ense. 

FG game either way
 
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Posted: #40
Heee Hawwww Heeeee Hawwwww Donkeyz in tha house
chargers 27-20
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by wmcintyre:

They definitely have a shot to win it but I don't think Manning chokes 2 years in a row and goes 0-2 as a Bronco in Denver in the playoffs. I think I am pretty sold that I will def take the 10 though with Rivers. 

Cap: Whats your thoughts on the Saints/Hawks matchup?

Why can't he? There's more pressure on Manning to win a playoff game this year then ever before. All his records, all his accolades, choking last year etc. Rivers owns him. I'll post my plays sometime on my lunch break today at work
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by mikesomoney:

But you can't be that high on Cam controlling the offense against the Niners Defense. I understand the Niners offensive woes but I think Kap is a winner come post season and will check it down fast on a route or move up the pocket and run for some first downs if the D isn't giving him any passing lanes.

Forget the Panthers offense. There weakness is there secondary, Kap won't be able to take advantage of it, all this talk about he has his weopons back this game where in the loss he didn't. He was garbage against GB, it was his rushing that killed them. Again, he won't be able to rush free against Panthers front 7.
 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by mrfootball101:

i belive Panthers will shred 49ers to pices beings this is 49ers 3rd striaght roadie with no rest and seeing how much trouble they had beating a severly wounded packers team!

NO cover - 3 1/2 road fav.

Kap will get smeared if he tries to run vs that fron 7 I seen panthers at home this year 6 out of home games allowed way less than 20 points much tougher schedule than cup cakes SF faced.

Teams this year with winning records or 500

Seahwks wk 1 Lost 7 - 12 Rams week 7 crushed them  Falcons last year won 14 games Panthers creamed them 34 -10 49ers - 14 at home no cover win 34-24 @ Saints panthers got crushed 49ers though only lost by 3 points

as they say many teams are way better at home than on road  thats your panthers ooooooooooo yes big win over top afc team Pats  Beat them as a fav of 3 24-20

I tend to agree with you mate, for a few different reasons but I don't think this will even be a close game. I see a Panthers coming out party looming

 
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Posted: #44
if you look at both teams run O and run D and pass D and pass O (last 4 games)....theyre stats are almost identical....indy +7.5 for me!!!!!
 
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Posted: #45

also look at the 8 remaining teams....what is their win/loss record vs these teams example IND has beaten SF, SEA, DEN, loss SD (3-1)  NE beat NO, DEN, loss to CAR (2-1)....IM LIKIN INDY!!!!!

 
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Posted: #46
He made some nice passes in between defenders to crab and the TD to Vernon. Not to mention, at least 1 td not given to niners by holding crab blatantly on passes. You're right though he won't be able to run as effectively against panthers but I hope slip screens and hard runs by gore will be the next deciding factor.

Always respect your picks LC I'm not supremely confident in niners but I like the momentum they have going forward & definitely not cause they are my team.
 
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Posted: #47
So food for thought:
*A six and one seed have met five times in the divisional round in the last five years and with the six seed winning four of the five
*Six seeds are also 5-2 in the divisional rounds in the last eight years
*Two six seeds have one the last eight SB's the Saints are the only one seed to do so in that period
 
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Posted: #48
lc 

i know KAP and SF managed to only put up 23 vs GB but remember it was elfin cold!   it is supposed to be SF weather in CLT this sunday,  high upper 60s 
 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by bobafett:

if you look at both teams run O and run D and pass D and pass O (last 4 games)....theyre stats are almost identical....indy +7.5 for me!!!!!

Agreed, matchup wise they are somewhat identical. However, what about playoff experience and coaching? You didn't mention either of them where NE has a huge edge in both.

 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by mikesomoney:

He made some nice passes in between defenders to crab and the TD to Vernon. Not to mention, at least 1 td not given to niners by holding crab blatantly on passes. You're right though he won't be able to run as effectively against panthers but I hope slip screens and hard runs by gore will be the next deciding factor.

Always respect your picks LC I'm not supremely confident in niners but I like the momentum they have going forward & definitely not cause they are my team.

There are tons of reasons to like SF or CAR based on matchup, you can make an argument for either side but I just think overall it's a great spot for CAR. They are the lone team in the playoffs left that noone has given a shot to win it all. Hell, when was the last time there's been a home underdog in the divisional round? They already beat SF once yet are home underdogs, they are being completely disrespected. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers won by 10

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